ORL
42-36
NO
25-54
Recap · NBA
rlando Magic went into New Orleans Pelicans and beat them, 112–108. Decided by 4.
NO +6.5 cashed (ORL won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 236.5 by 16.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ORL · top performer
Paolo Banchero
F · #5
23
Pts
16
Reb
6
Ast
NO · top performer
Saddiq Bey
G · #41
32
Pts
6
Reb
1
Ast
NBA · Orlando Magic at New Orleans Pelicans · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 38 | 23 | 6-14 | 0-3 | 11-15 | -1 | 16 | 6 | |
| 20 | 11 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 3-4 | +10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 32 | 13 | 6-7 | 0-1 | 1-4 | -5 | 5 | 1 | |
| 34 | 27 | 8-19 | 3-8 | 8-11 | +8 | 6 | 4 | |
| 34 | 11 | 4-19 | 3-12 | — | -1 | 4 | 8 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 28 | 8 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | +11 | 5 | 2 | |
| 18 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | — | -13 | 3 | 2 | |
| 16 | 6 | 3-4 | — | — | +9 | 8 | 1 | |
| 21 | 11 | 5-9 | 1-3 | — | +2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Team | 112 | 40-93 | 7-33 | 25-36 | 57 | 27 | ||
| DNP: M. Wagner, N. Penda, J. Richardson | ||||||||
DNP: M. Wagner, N. Penda, J. Richardson
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 9 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | — | +8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 28 | 17 | 5-11 | — | 7-9 | -1 | 7 | 2 | |
| 40 | 18 | 8-9 | — | 2-4 | +1 | 13 | 3 | |
| 39 | 32 | 10-24 | 3-8 | 9-11 | +6 | 6 | 1 | |
| 37 | 19 | 4-14 | 2-7 | 9-11 | 0 | 3 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -8 | 1 | 0 | |
| 18 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | — | -5 | 4 | 1 | |
| 28 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-4 | — | -19 | 5 | 1 | |
| 11 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-1 | — | -4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 26 | 7 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 1-1 | +2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Team | 108 | 35-84 | 10-31 | 28-36 | 47 | 18 | ||
| DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Oduro, J. Poole | ||||||||
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Oduro, J. Poole
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
42
27
Ast
18
Season series
ORL wins series 2-0
NO118@ORL128ORL112@NO108todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ORL -6.5
Half-pt below key 7
Total
236.5
High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg
Moneyline
ORL-25071%NO+20533%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
6.5
0.0 since open
Total
236.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 34pp · 1st Quarter · 7:56
ORLP. Banchero
FGame leader · 38 minDouble-double
23 PTS · 16 REB · 6 AST
NOS. Bey
GGame leader · 39 min30-point game
32 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
ORL beat NO 112-108. P. Banchero led with 23 PTS, 16 REB, 6 AST. ORL outscored the other side 31-20 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NO vs ORL
Starters vs bench
production by unitORLstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
85 PTS · 36 REB · 21 AST
GS 63
Bench(4)
27 PTS · 21 REB · 6 AST
GS 25
NOstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
91 PTS · 32 REB · 14 AST
GS 72
Bench(5)
17 PTS · 15 REB · 4 AST
GS 5
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSaddiq Bey · misses 2-foot tip shot
Zion Williamson · misses free throw 2 of 2
Zion Williamson · misses 2-foot two point shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 29 | 23 | 29 | 31 | 112 |
| NO | 28 | 32 | 28 | 20 | 108 |
Period scoring
ORL won 3 · NO won 1
Q1
Jr. 8
Peavy 21
Q2
Banchero 9
Bey 8
Q3
Banchero 7
Bey 10
Q4
Bane 14
Bey 19
Shooting comparison
43%
40-93
FG
42%
35-84
21%
7-33
3PT
32%
10-31
69%
25-36
FT
78%
28-36
Play-by-play · 533 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 112·NO 108
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
ORL 112·NO 108
−9pp
- Q4·2.8
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
ORL 112·NO 108
−2pp
- Q4·5.4
Jordan Hawkins misses three point shotBIG MOMENT
·
ORL 112·NO 108
−6pp
- Q4·9.5
Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Yves MissiBIG MOMENT
· ·
ORL 112·NO 108
+8pp
- Q4·9.5
Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 112·NO 108
+1pp
- Q4·9.5
Magic offensive team rebound
ORL 111·NO 108
+3pp
- Q4·9.5
Desmond Bane misses free throw 1 of 2
ORL 111·NO 108
+2pp
- Q4·9.5
Saddiq Bey personal foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 111·NO 108
−5pp
- Q4·10.2
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
ORL 111·NO 108
−7pp
- Q4·10.2
Yves Missi enters the game for Jordan HawkinsBIG MOMENT
· ·
ORL 111·NO 107
+10pp
- Q4·10.2
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 111·NO 107
+2pp
- Q4·10.2
Jalen Suggs shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 111·NO 106
+8pp
- Q4·12.8
Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Yves MissiBIG MOMENT
· ·
ORL 111·NO 106
−10pp
- Q4·12.8
Pelicans Full timeout
ORL 111·NO 106
- Q4·12.8
Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 111·NO 106
+0.5pp
- Q4·12.8
Magic offensive team rebound
ORL 110·NO 106
+2pp
- Q4·12.8
Desmond Bane misses free throw 1 of 2
ORL 110·NO 106
+1pp
- Q4·12.8
Zion Williamson personal foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 110·NO 106
−5pp
- Q4·21.3
Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 3 of 3
ORL 110·NO 106
−5pp
- Q4·21.3
Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 2 of 3BIG MOMENT
ORL 110·NO 105
+8pp
- Q4·21.3
Pelicans offensive team rebound
ORL 110·NO 104
−3pp
- Q4·21.3
Jeremiah Fears misses free throw 1 of 3
ORL 110·NO 104
+5pp
- Q4·21.3
Micah Peavy enters the game for Jordan Hawkins
· ·
ORL 110·NO 104
- Q4·21.3
(00:21.3) [Magic] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Magic] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
ORL 110·NO 104
−9pp
- Q4·21.3
Magic Full timeout
ORL 110·NO 104
- Q4·21.3
Jalen Suggs shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 110·NO 104
+6pp
- Q4·27.7
Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 110·NO 104
+2pp
- Q4·27.7
Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 109·NO 104
−0.6pp
- Q4·27.7
Jeremiah Fears personal foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 108·NO 104
−5pp
Team stats
ORL
Away
Stat
NO
Home
40-93
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-84
43
FG %
42
7-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-31
25-36
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
28-36
27
Assists
18
13
Turnovers
15
Betting line
ORL -6.5·O/U 236.5·ORL -250/NO +205
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort- Paolo BancheroORL · FDRIVES18.699
Goga BitadzeORL · CTS%70.099
Franz WagnerORL · FDEFL4.398
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · CCONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · GDEFL3.796
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · ORL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NO vs ORL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- Paolo BancheroORL23.9± 9.4high
- Trey Murphy IIINO20.0± 6.2high
- Jeremiah FearsNO19.9± 10.9high
Rebounds
- Paolo BancheroORL8.3± 2.3high
- Derik QueenNO8.1± 5.6high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL7.4± 4.7high
Assists
- Dejounte MurrayNO6.4± 4.4low
- Paolo BancheroORL6.0± 2.3high
- Jalen SuggsORL4.6± 1.5high
Blocks
- Yves MissiNO1.8± 1.5high
- Goga BitadzeORL1.4± 1.2high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL1.3± 0.7high
Steals
- Jalen SuggsORL1.8± 1.5high
- Dejounte MurrayNO1.6± 0.9low
- Jeremiah FearsNO1.5± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
ORL
league avg
NO
52.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
52.7%
45.9%
FG%
47.0
▶46.6%
114.2
PPG
114.9
▶115.5
26.0
Assists / G
25.0
25.1
13.7
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.5