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MLBTop 1
MIA 0@PHI 0
-2.7ppmedium
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBMets: Reinstated RHP Kodai Senga from the 15-day IL (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBBrewers: Sent RHP Brandon Woodruff on a rehab assignment to Wisconsin (ML) (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Reinstated C Cal Raleigh and SS J.P (Jun 16)
MLBTop 1
MIA 0@PHI 0
-2.7ppmedium
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBMets: Reinstated RHP Kodai Senga from the 15-day IL (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBBrewers: Sent RHP Brandon Woodruff on a rehab assignment to Wisconsin (ML) (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Reinstated C Cal Raleigh and SS J.P (Jun 16)
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Los Angeles Lakers
LAL#4 · Western Conference

Los Angeles Lakers

53-29 (64.6%) · W3 · L10 7-3

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Elo rating

#27 of 30

Elo rating 1465.7 · as of 2026-06-14 · nba_team_ratings

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Final 5 · 2026

2026-05-01 → 2026-05-11 · Full ATS profile →

WWon by 20 at HOU, 98-78, 2026-05-01. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 18 at OKC, 90-108, 2026-05-05. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 18 at OKC, 107-125, 2026-05-07. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 23 vs OKC, 108-131, 2026-05-09. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 5 vs OKC, 110-115, 2026-05-11. Covered the spread (closing line).
 

Team efficiency

The possession economy

ORtg

117.0

#7 of 30

DRtg

113.8

#19 of 30

Net rating

+3.2

#13 of 30

Pace

100.7

#22 of 30

2025-26 regular season · ESPN advanced team statistics (per 100 possessions; pace = possessions / 48) · DRtg derived as points allowed (ESPN standings) ÷ pace × 100

Stat leaders

Who carries them

Points per game

  1. 1Luka Doncic64 G33.5
  2. 2Austin Reaves51 G23.3
  3. 3LeBron James60 G20.9
  4. 4Deandre Ayton72 G12.5
  5. 5Rui Hachimura68 G11.5

Rebounds per game

  1. 1Deandre Ayton72 G8.0
  2. 2Luka Doncic64 G7.7
  3. 3LeBron James60 G6.1
  4. 4Austin Reaves51 G4.7
  5. 5Jarred Vanderbilt65 G4.5

Assists per game

  1. 1Luka Doncic64 G8.3
  2. 2LeBron James60 G7.2
  3. 3Austin Reaves51 G5.5
  4. 4Marcus Smart62 G3.0
  5. 5Luke Kennard32 G2.4

True shooting %

  1. 1Jaxson Hayes66 G75.8%
  2. 2Deandre Ayton72 G67.6%
  3. 3Luke Kennard32 G66.1%
  4. 4Austin Reaves51 G64.1%
  5. 5Rui Hachimura68 G62.0%

Effective FG %

  1. 1Jaxson Hayes66 G76.1%
  2. 2Deandre Ayton72 G67.1%
  3. 3Luke Kennard32 G63.3%
  4. 4Rui Hachimura68 G61.1%
  5. 5Austin Reaves51 G56.7%

Usage %

  1. 1Luka Doncic64 G38.5%
  2. 2LeBron James60 G28.1%
  3. 3Austin Reaves51 G26.9%
  4. 4Deandre Ayton72 G15.9%
  5. 5Marcus Smart62 G15.7%

2025-26 regular season · ESPN per-athlete season statistics (team stint; same API family as the efficiency strip) · counting boards min 10 GP · TS% / eFG% / USG% min 20 GP & 15.0 MPG · current roster only

Shooting profile

How they shoot

Shooting profile · 2026

Splits vs league

92 games · hoopR

Effective FG%

57.0%vs 54.4%+2.5

Field goal %

49.9%vs 47.0%+3.0

Three-point %

36.1%vs 0.0%+36.1

Free throw %

76.0%vs 78.1%-2.1

PPG

114.8

APG

25.7

TO/G

14.1

Synergy identity

How they generate offense

2025-26 Synergy · percentile vs NBA

  1. Spot-Up1.06 PPP59th
  2. Transition1.16 PPP66th
  3. P&R Ball-Handler0.99 PPP100th
  4. Isolation1.03 PPP97th
  5. Cut1.36 PPP83rd
  6. P&R Roll Man1.17 PPP79th
  7. Post-Up0.96 PPP41st
  8. Off Screen1.08 PPP93rd

Defense · play-type efficiency allowed

  1. Spot-Up1.02 PPP83rd
  2. Transition1.12 PPP76th
  3. P&R Ball-Handler0.86 PPP72nd
  4. Isolation0.92 PPP62nd
  5. Cut1.41 PPP3rd
  6. Putbacks1.15 PPP45th

▸Elite p&r ball-handler — 100th pct, 0.99 PPP. Efficient across the play-type diet.

Lineups & on/off

Best units, biggest lifts

Net rating per 100

Best 5-man units

min 150 off poss

  1. 1Ayton · Dončić · Hachimura · Reaves · Smart239 off poss · 116m+23.5
  2. 2Ayton · Dončić · Reaves · Smart · James384 off poss · 188m+13.5
  3. 3Ayton · Dončić · LaRavia · Smart · James462 off poss · 226m-2.8
  4. 4Ayton · Dončić · Hachimura · Reaves · James277 off poss · 132m-11.3

Team eFG% on − off

Shooting lift

  1. 1Luka Dončić+2.5
  2. 2Luke Kennard+2.4
  3. 3Gabe Vincent+1.6
  4. 4Marcus Smart+1.4

Quarter identity

When they score

Pattern by quarter

6 games · for vs against

7.515.022.530.0Q1 · 25.17 for / 24.83 against · margin +0.33Q1Q2 · 26.67 for / 26.17 against · margin +0.50PEAKQ2Q3 · 23.67 for / 28.67 against · margin -5.00Q3Q4 · 25.50 for / 29.67 against · margin -4.17Q4QUARTERS · LAST 6 GAMES
ForAgainst

101.0 avg / 109.3 allowed

Shot diet

Where the shots come from

They take 2.8% more of their shots in the paint outside the restricted area than the league average.

3PT attempt rate 38.9% · lg 41.4%

eFG% 57.0% · lg 54.5%

Rim

27.0% of FGA · lg 28.4% (-1.4pp)

FG 73.4% · lg 67.0% · +6.4pp

Paint (non-RA)

22.9% of FGA · lg 20.1% (+2.8pp)

FG 48.4% · lg 44.4% · +4.0pp

Mid-range

11.3% of FGA · lg 10.1% (+1.2pp)

FG 44.3% · lg 41.6% · +2.7pp

Corner 3

9.9% of FGA · lg 10.7% (-0.8pp)

FG 35.5% · lg 38.5% · -3.0pp

Above the break 3

29.0% of FGA · lg 30.7% (-1.7pp)

FG 36.4% · lg 35.0% · +1.4pp

Bar = share of team FGA · tick = league share · 2025-26 season · nba_shots · NBA Stats play-by-play · n=7,561 team FGA of 229,273 league-wide · backcourt heaves excluded

Scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

6 games · avg 101.0 points

1122AVG 101.085+290+195+100+2105+1110+115+POINTS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 6 games · 2026-04-29 → 2026-05-11

Record

1-5

Win pct

16.7%

Avg margin

-8.3

Longest W

1

Longest L

4

Upset wins

1

Favorite losses

1

2026-04-29 · vs HOU · L 93-99 · model gave 62%HOU2026-05-01 · @ HOU · W 98-78 · model gave 39%HOU2026-05-05 · @ OKC · L 90-108 · model gave 31%OKC2026-05-07 · @ OKC · L 107-125 · model gave 29%OKC2026-05-09 · vs OKC · L 108-131 · model gave 49%OKC2026-05-11 · vs OKC · L 110-115 · model gave 49%OKC

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

6 games · 2026-04-29 → 2026-05-11

Peak 1505 · Now 1466 · Trough 1466

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

2 moves
  1. Apr 12

    Re-signed G Nick Smith Jr. to a contract.

  2. Apr 10

    Waived G Kobe Bufkin.

Source · ESPN

Roster · 17 players

The active roster

Guards

PG · SG

7 players

Bronny James

B. James

G · #9

Luke Kennard

L. Kennard

G · #10

Austin Reaves

A. Reaves

G · #15

Nick Smith Jr.

N. Smith Jr.

G · #20

Chris Manon

C. Manon

G · #30

Marcus Smart

M. Smart

G · #36

Luka Doncic

L. Doncic

G · #77

Forwards

SF · PF

8 players

Adou Thiero

A. Thiero

F · #1

Jarred Vanderbilt

J. Vanderbilt

F · #2

Dalton Knecht

D. Knecht

F · #4

Jake LaRavia

J. LaRavia

F · #12

Maxi Kleber

M. Kleber

F · #14

Drew Timme

D. Timme

F · #17

LeBron James

L. James

F · #23

Rui Hachimura

R. Hachimura

F · #28

Centers

2 players

Deandre Ayton

D. Ayton

C · #5

Jaxson Hayes

J. Hayes

C · #11

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 62-35
61%Last 30 · 299-189
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Model picks on LAL

Below the 30-pick gate (n=3)