TOR
43-35
BOS
53-25
Recap · NBA
oston Celtics held off Toronto Raptors, 115–101.
BOS -9.5 cashed (won by 14). Total stayed UNDER 221.5 by 5.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
TOR · top performer
Ja'Kobe Walter
G · #14
16
Pts
2
Reb
1
Ast
BOS · top performer
Neemias Queta
C · #88
18
Pts
7
Reb
4
Ast
NBA · Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 34 | 15 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 3-3 | -13 | 3 | 4 | |
| 35 | 15 | 6-17 | 1-4 | 2-2 | -15 | 5 | 4 | |
| 32 | 10 | 5-14 | 0-3 | — | -15 | 6 | 8 | |
| 20 | 14 | 7-9 | — | — | -16 | 2 | 0 | |
| 32 | 16 | 6-9 | 4-5 | 0-3 | -5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 24 | 10 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 4-4 | -8 | 6 | 4 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 12 | 5-8 | — | 2-4 | -1 | 5 | 5 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 26 | 7 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | -7 | 1 | 5 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 101 | 40-84 | 8-20 | 13-18 | 31 | 31 | ||
| DNP: G. Temple | ||||||||
DNP: G. Temple
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 34 | 23 | 7-15 | 2-6 | 7-8 | +13 | 13 | 7 | |
| 26 | 8 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 1-1 | +9 | 2 | 1 | |
| 34 | 18 | 9-10 | — | — | +30 | 7 | 4 | |
| 35 | 10 | 4-7 | 2-3 | — | +20 | 6 | 6 | |
| 35 | 26 | 11-20 | 1-3 | 3-5 | +13 | 6 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 13 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-2 | — | -14 | 4 | 1 | |
| 30 | 17 | 7-12 | 1-3 | 2-2 | +9 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | -2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-5 | — | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| 13 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-2 | — | -6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | -2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 115 | 47-88 | 8-28 | 13-16 | 44 | 25 | ||
| DNP: A. Williams, L. Garza, J. Tonje, M. Shulga | ||||||||
DNP: A. Williams, L. Garza, J. Tonje, M. Shulga
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
53
31
Ast
25
Season series
BOS wins series 4-0
BOS121@TOR113BOS112@TOR96TOR117@BOS125TOR101@BOS115todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
BOS -9.5
Half-pt below key 10
Total
221.5
Standard · -4.5 vs avg
Moneyline
TOR+33023%BOS-42581%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
9.5
0.0 since open
Total
221.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 23pp · 3rd Quarter · 0.0
TORJ. Walter
GGame leader · 32 min30+ minutes, 0 turnovers
16 PTS · 2 REB · 1 AST
BOSN. Queta
CGame leader · 34 min30+ minutes, 0 turnovers
18 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
BOS beat TOR 115-101. N. Queta led with 18 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST. BOS outscored the other side 35-24 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
BOS vs TOR
Starters vs bench
production by unitTORstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 18 REB · 17 AST
GS 47
Bench(9)
31 PTS · 13 REB · 14 AST
GS 30
BOSstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
85 PTS · 34 REB · 21 AST
GS 76
Bench(6)
30 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
GS 20
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCollin Murray-Boyles · blocks Jayson Tatum 's 8-foot driving layup
Payton Pritchard · makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)
Jakob Poeltl · makes 3-foot layup (RJ Barrett assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 26 | 20 | 31 | 24 | 101 |
| BOS | 26 | 28 | 26 | 35 | 115 |
Period scoring
TOR won 1 · BOS won 2
Q1
Walter 8
Queta 8
Q2
Barnes 6
Brown 12
Q3
Poeltl 6
Brown 8
Q4
Ingram 6
Poeltl 13
Shooting comparison
48%
40-84
FG
53%
47-88
40%
8-20
3PT
29%
8-28
72%
13-18
FT
81%
13-16
Play-by-play · 454 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 101·BOS 115
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 101·BOS 115
- Q4·22.1
shot clock turnover
TOR 101·BOS 115
- Q4·46.3
Jamison Battle makes 14-foot turnaround jump shot
TOR 101·BOS 115
- Q4·1:08
Payton Pritchard makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 99·BOS 115
- Q4·1:08
Gradey Dick enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
- Q4·1:08
Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
- Q4·1:08
Alijah Martin enters the game for RJ Barrett
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
- Q4·1:08
Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Scottie Barnes
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
- Q4·1:08
Jamison Battle enters the game for Brandon Ingram
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
- Q4·1:08
Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
- Q4·1:08
Jordan Walsh enters the game for Derrick White
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
- Q4·1:08
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Jaylen Brown
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
- Q4·1:08
Ron Harper Jr. enters the game for Jayson Tatum
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
- Q4·1:08
Payton Pritchard makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 99·BOS 114
- Q4·1:08
Jamal Shead personal take foul
TOR 99·BOS 113
- Q4·1:09
Scottie Barnes makes running layup (Brandon Ingram assists)
·
TOR 99·BOS 113
- Q4·1:14
RJ Barrett defensive rebound
TOR 97·BOS 113
- Q4·1:19
Payton Pritchard misses 10-foot fade away jump shot
TOR 97·BOS 113
- Q4·1:44
RJ Barrett makes running dunk (Scottie Barnes assists)
·
TOR 97·BOS 113
- Q4·1:46
Jaylen Brown lost ball turnover (Scottie Barnes steals)
·
TOR 95·BOS 113
- Q4·1:54
RJ Barrett bad pass turnover (Jaylen Brown steals)
·
TOR 95·BOS 113
- Q4·1:57
RJ Barrett defensive rebound
TOR 95·BOS 113
- Q4·2:01
Payton Pritchard misses 12-foot step back jumpshot
TOR 95·BOS 113
- Q4·2:12
Brandon Ingram vs. Jaylen Brown (Payton Pritchard gains possession)
· ·
TOR 95·BOS 113
- Q4·2:24
Derrick White defensive rebound
TOR 95·BOS 113
- Q4·2:26
RJ Barrett misses 27-foot three point jumper
TOR 95·BOS 113
- Q4·2:37
Jaylen Brown makes 2-foot running dunk
TOR 95·BOS 113
- Q4·2:39
Scottie Barnes bad pass turnover (Jaylen Brown steals)
·
TOR 95·BOS 111
- Q4·2:46
Ja'Kobe Walter enters the game for Sandro Mamukelashvili
·
TOR 95·BOS 111
Team stats
TOR
Away
Stat
BOS
Home
40-84
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
47-88
48
FG %
53
8-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-28
13-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-16
31
Assists
25
15
Turnovers
15
Betting line
BOS -9.5·O/U 221.5·TOR +330/BOS -425
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Jaylen BrownBOS · GUSG%35.699+
Jakob PoeltlTOR · CTS%69.899
Scottie BarnesTOR · FDRIVES16.798
Jayson TatumBOS · FTOUCHES8998
RJ BarrettTOR · FDRIVES16.497
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BOS vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
165
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Jaylen BrownBOS26.6± 6.3high
- Jayson TatumBOS22.9± 3.5high
- RJ BarrettTOR21.8± 4.6high
Rebounds
- Jayson TatumBOS10.4± 3.8high
- Neemias QuetaBOS8.4± 3.6high
- Scottie BarnesTOR6.7± 3.3high
Assists
- Scottie BarnesTOR7.1± 3.8high
- Jayson TatumBOS6.4± 2.6high
- Payton PritchardBOS5.4± 2.2high
Blocks
- Scottie BarnesTOR1.5± 1.4high
- Derrick WhiteBOS1.1± 1.3high
- Neemias QuetaBOS1.0± 0.8high
Steals
- Chucky HepburnTOR1.9± 2.1low
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR1.6± 0.9high
- Ja'Kobe WalterTOR1.5± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
TOR
league avg
BOS
54.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.1%
48.1%
FG%
47.0
46.5%
114.3
PPG
114.9
114.2
29.2
Assists / G
25.0
24.6
13.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶11.5