NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14BOS

TOR

43-35

101115

BOS

53-25

NBASun, Apr 5FinalSeriesBOS wins series 4-0VegasBOS -9.5

TOR · top performer

Ja'Kobe Walter

G · #14

14.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Neemias Queta

C · #88

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 23pp · 3rd Quarter · 0.0

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	34	15	6-13	0-1	3-3	-13	3	4
R. BarrettF · #9	35	15	6-17	1-4	2-2	-15	5	4
S. BarnesF · #4	32	10	5-14	0-3	—	-15	6	8
J. PoeltlC · #19	20	14	7-9	—	—	-16	2	0
J. WalterG · #14	32	16	6-9	4-5	0-3	-5	2	1
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	24	10	2-4	2-3	4-4	-8	6	4
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
J. BattleF · #77	1	2	1-1	—	—	+2	0	0
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	26	12	5-8	—	2-4	-1	5	5
J. MogboF · #2	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
A.J. LawsonG · #0	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	1	0
J. SheadG · #23	26	7	2-8	1-3	2-2	-7	1	5
A. MartinG · #55	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
G. DickG · #1	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
Team		101	40-84	8-20	13-18		31	31
DNP: G. Temple

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. TatumF · #0	34	23	7-15	2-6	7-8	+13	13	7
S. HauserF · #30	26	8	3-7	1-4	1-1	+9	2	1
N. QuetaC · #88	34	18	9-10	—	—	+30	7	4
D. WhiteG · #9	35	10	4-7	2-3	—	+20	6	6
J. BrownG · #7	35	26	11-20	1-3	3-5	+13	6	3
Bench
N. VucevicC · #4	13	4	2-5	0-2	—	-14	4	1
P. PritchardG · #11	30	17	7-12	1-3	2-2	+9	1	3
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
B. ScheiermanG · #55	17	5	2-8	1-5	—	0	5	0
J. WalshG · #27	13	4	2-4	0-2	—	-6	0	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
Team		115	47-88	8-28	13-16		44	25
DNP: J. Tonje, A. Williams, L. Garza, M. Shulga

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

40-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-88

FG %

8-20

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-28

13-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-16

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS wins series 4-0

Dec 7

BOS121@

TOR113

Dec 21

BOS112@

TOR96

Jan 10

TOR117@

BOS125

Apr 5

TOR101@

BOS115today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+33023%

BOS-42581%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -9.5↗SpreadBet BOS -9.5↗

Line movement · 29 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat TOR 115-101. N. Queta led with 18 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST. BOS outscored the other side 35-24 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 18 REB · 17 AST

GS 47

Bench(9)

31 PTS · 13 REB · 14 AST

GS 30

BOSstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 34 REB · 21 AST

GS 76

Bench(6)

30 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS2nd Quarter · 11:36 · 26-26

+19pp→ 66% WP

Collin Murray-Boyles · blocks Jayson Tatum 's 8-foot driving layup

BOS4th Quarter · 11:42 · 77-83

+9pp→ 83% WP

Payton Pritchard · makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)

BOS4th Quarter · 8:59 · 83-93

+22pp→ 95% WP

Jakob Poeltl · makes 3-foot layup (RJ Barrett assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	26	20	31	24	101
BOS	26	28	26	35	115

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · BOS won 2

Walter 8

Queta 8

Barnes 6

Brown 12

Poeltl 6

Brown 8

Ingram 6

Poeltl 13

TOR

BOS

Shooting comparison

TOR

BOS

48%

40-84

53%

47-88

40%

8-20

3PT

29%

8-28

72%

13-18

81%

13-16

Play-by-play · 454 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 101·BOS 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 101·BOS 115
Q4·22.1
shot clock turnover
TOR 101·BOS 115
Q4·46.3
Jamison Battle makes 14-foot turnaround jump shot
TOR 101·BOS 115
Q4·1:08
Payton Pritchard makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 99·BOS 115
Q4·1:08
Gradey Dick enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
Q4·1:08
Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
Q4·1:08
Alijah Martin enters the game for RJ Barrett
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
Q4·1:08
Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Scottie Barnes
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
Q4·1:08
Jamison Battle enters the game for Brandon Ingram
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
Q4·1:08
Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
Q4·1:08
Jordan Walsh enters the game for Derrick White
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
Q4·1:08
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Jaylen Brown
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
Q4·1:08
Ron Harper Jr. enters the game for Jayson Tatum
·
TOR 99·BOS 114
Q4·1:08
Payton Pritchard makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 99·BOS 114
Q4·1:08
Jamal Shead personal take foul
TOR 99·BOS 113
Q4·1:09
Scottie Barnes makes running layup (Brandon Ingram assists)
·
TOR 99·BOS 113
Q4·1:14
RJ Barrett defensive rebound
TOR 97·BOS 113
Q4·1:19
Payton Pritchard misses 10-foot fade away jump shot
TOR 97·BOS 113
Q4·1:44
RJ Barrett makes running dunk (Scottie Barnes assists)
·
TOR 97·BOS 113
Q4·1:46
Jaylen Brown lost ball turnover (Scottie Barnes steals)
·
TOR 95·BOS 113
Q4·1:54
RJ Barrett bad pass turnover (Jaylen Brown steals)
·
TOR 95·BOS 113
Q4·1:57
RJ Barrett defensive rebound
TOR 95·BOS 113
Q4·2:01
Payton Pritchard misses 12-foot step back jumpshot
TOR 95·BOS 113
Q4·2:12
Brandon Ingram vs. Jaylen Brown (Payton Pritchard gains possession)
· ·
TOR 95·BOS 113
Q4·2:24
Derrick White defensive rebound
TOR 95·BOS 113
Q4·2:26
RJ Barrett misses 27-foot three point jumper
TOR 95·BOS 113
Q4·2:37
Jaylen Brown makes 2-foot running dunk
TOR 95·BOS 113
Q4·2:39
Scottie Barnes bad pass turnover (Jaylen Brown steals)
·
TOR 95·BOS 111
Q4·2:46
Ja'Kobe Walter enters the game for Sandro Mamukelashvili
·
TOR 95·BOS 111

Betting line

BOS -9.5·O/U 221.5·TOR +330/BOS -425

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics held off Toronto Raptors, 115–101.

BOS -9.5 cashed (won by 14). Total stayed UNDER 221.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Jayson TatumBOS · F
TOUCHES8998
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

145

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Jayson TatumBOS
22.9± 3.5high
RJ BarrettTOR
21.8± 4.6high
Scottie BarnesTOR
20.0± 6.0high

Rebounds

Jayson TatumBOS
10.4± 3.8high
Neemias QuetaBOS
8.4± 3.6high
Mitchell RobinsonBOS
6.7± 2.5high

Assists

Scottie BarnesTOR
7.1± 3.8high
Jayson TatumBOS
6.4± 2.6high
Payton PritchardBOS
5.4± 2.2high

Blocks

Scottie BarnesTOR
1.5± 1.4high
Derrick WhiteBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Neemias QuetaBOS
1.0± 0.8high

Steals

Chucky HepburnTOR
1.9± 2.1low
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
1.6± 0.9high
Paul GeorgeBOS
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

BOS

54.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

48.1%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.5%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.2

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

13.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Team pages

Toronto RaptorsBoston Celtics

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR