NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16MIL

MEM

25-53

115131

MIL

31-47

NBASun, Apr 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIL -7.5

Recap · NBA

ilwaukee Bucks held off Memphis Grizzlies, 131–115.

MIL -7.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 230.5 OVER by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MEM · top performer

Rayan Rupert

G · #21

33.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

Cormac Ryan

G · #30

24.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ProsperF · #18	14	13	5-10	1-5	2-3	-7	3	2
T. HendricksF · #22	12	11	3-4	3-4	2-2	-4	4	0
T. OkaniF · #5	41	9	4-12	1-4	0-2	-11	3	0
W. Clayton Jr.G · #4	25	20	6-11	4-6	4-4	-15	3	4
R. RupertG · #21	39	33	9-19	2-6	13-16	-8	10	10
Bench
T. GibsonF · #67	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	+4	6	1
D. WhiteheadF · #00	39	16	6-19	3-10	1-1	-9	3	2
L. WilliamsonG · #55	36	5	2-9	1-6	—	-12	4	4
A. BalG · #72	25	8	3-7	2-4	—	-18	2	2
Team		115	38-92	17-46	22-28		38	25
DNP: C. Coward, G. Jackson, C. Spencer

DNP: C. Coward, G. Jackson, C. Spencer

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. KuzmaF · #18	22	4	2-3	—	—	-4	4	6
O. DiengF · #21	31	17	6-15	1-4	4-7	+8	9	6
M. TurnerC · #3	22	19	6-13	1-4	6-7	-3	11	0
A. GreenG · #20	27	6	2-7	2-7	—	0	1	1
R. RollinsG · #13	32	24	10-16	4-7	—	0	4	3
Bench
T. PrinceF · #12	24	19	7-8	5-5	—	+20	3	3
T. AntetokounmpoF · #43	2	2	1-1	—	0-2	0	0	0
P. NanceF · #35	23	5	2-4	0-1	1-2	+23	4	4
A. AntetokounmpoF · #29	1	2	1-1	—	—	-2	0	1
J. SimsC · #00	26	12	6-7	—	0-2	+19	4	3
C. RyanG · #30	29	21	7-8	3-4	4-4	+19	4	3
Team		131	50-83	16-32	15-24		44	30
DNP: G. Harris, A. Jackson Jr.

DNP: G. Harris, A. Jackson Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 27

MIL104@

MEM125

Apr 5

MEM115@

MIL131today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MEM+22531%

MIL-27874%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -7.5↗SpreadBet MIL -7.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMEM ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 21pp · 1st Quarter · 7:07

MEM

R. Rupert

Game leader · 39 minTriple-double

33 PTS · 10 REB · 10 AST

MIL

C. Ryan

Game leader · 29 min

21 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST

How it ended

MIL beat MEM 131-115. C. Ryan led with 21 PTS, 4 REB, 3 AST. MIL outscored the other side 39-28 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs MEM

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MEMstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST

GS 74

Bench(4)

29 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST

GS 16

MILstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 29 REB · 16 AST

GS 56

Bench(6)

61 PTS · 15 REB · 14 AST

GS 58

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MEM1st Quarter · 9:17 · 7-3

+19pp→ 57% WP

AJ Green · blocks Rayan Rupert 's 9-foot driving layup

MIL2nd Quarter · 9:40 · 27-41

+16pp→ 86% WP

Jericho Sims · makes layup (Taurean Prince assists)

MEM2nd Quarter · 12:00 · 25-34

+15pp→ 24% WP

Walter Clayton Jr. · enters the game for Toby Okani

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	25	31	31	28	115
MIL	34	28	30	39	131

Period scoring

MEM won 2 · MIL won 2

Rupert 13

Full 10

Rupert 12

Kuzma 19

Jr. 12

Turner 10

Jr. 6

Hendricks 12

MEM

MIL

Shooting comparison

MEM

MIL

41%

38-92

60%

50-83

37%

17-46

3PT

50%

16-32

79%

22-28

63%

15-24

Play-by-play · 471 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 115·MIL 129
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 115·MIL 129
Q4·14.2
Rayan Rupert makes technical free throw
MEM 115·MIL 129
Q4·14.2
Thanasis Antetokounmpo hanging techfoul
·
MEM 114·MIL 129
Q4·14.2
Thanasis Antetokounmpo makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Alex Antetokounmpo assists)
·
MEM 114·MIL 129
Q4·23.6
Rayan Rupert makes driving layup
MEM 114·MIL 127
Q4·29.9
Alex Antetokounmpo makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Cormac Ryan assists)
· ·
MEM 112·MIL 127
Q4·46.3
Walter Clayton Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Rayan Rupert assists)
·
MEM 112·MIL 125
Q4·55.3
Grizzlies defensive team rebound
MEM 109·MIL 125
Q4·57.3
Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 2 of 2
·
MEM 109·MIL 125
Q4·57.3
Alex Antetokounmpo enters the game for Ousmane Dieng
· ·
MEM 109·MIL 125
Q4·57.3
Bucks offensive team rebound
MEM 109·MIL 125
Q4·57.3
Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 1 of 2
·
MEM 109·MIL 125
Q4·57.3
Toby Okani shooting foul
MEM 109·MIL 125
Q4·1:04
Rayan Rupert bad pass turnover (Thanasis Antetokounmpo steals)
· ·
MEM 109·MIL 125
Q4·1:06
Jericho Sims personal foul
MEM 109·MIL 125
Q4·1:10
Pete Nance makes 1-foot dunk (Cormac Ryan assists)
·
MEM 109·MIL 125
Q4·1:29
Cormac Ryan defensive rebound
MEM 109·MIL 123
Q4·1:30
Dariq Whitehead misses driving dunk
MEM 109·MIL 123
Q4·1:39
Toby Okani offensive rebound
MEM 109·MIL 123
Q4·1:41
Dariq Whitehead misses 26-foot three point jumper
MEM 109·MIL 123
Q4·1:53
Cormac Ryan makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 109·MIL 125
Q4·1:53
Cormac Ryan makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 109·MIL 124
Q4·1:53
Thanasis Antetokounmpo enters the game for Taurean Prince
· ·
MEM 109·MIL 123
Q4·1:53
Lucas Williamson shooting foul
MEM 109·MIL 123
Q4·2:05
Lucas Williamson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Rayan Rupert assists)
·
MEM 109·MIL 123
Q4·2:07
Rayan Rupert offensive rebound
MEM 106·MIL 123
Q4·2:10
Dariq Whitehead misses 25-foot three point jumper
MEM 106·MIL 123
Q4·2:28
Ousmane Dieng makes two point shot
MEM 106·MIL 123
Q4·2:29
Ousmane Dieng offensive rebound
MEM 106·MIL 121

Team stats

MEM

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

38-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

50-83

FG %

17-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-32

22-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-24

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

MIL -7.5·O/U 230.5·MEM +225/MIL -278

DraftKings · via ESPN

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MEM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs MEM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL
25.0± 4.5high
Ja MorantMEM
19.6± 8.8high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL
9.9± 4.4high
Jericho SimsMIL
7.5± 4.7high

Assists

Ja MorantMEM
8.1± 3.9high
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Cam SpencerMEM
5.8± 2.9high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Myles TurnerMIL
1.8± 1.6high
GG JacksonMEM
0.9± 0.7high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MEM

league avg

MIL

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

56.5%

45.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

114.7

PPG

◀

114.9

110.6

27.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR