NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+35OKC

UTAH

21-58

111146

OKC

62-16

NBASun, Apr 5FinalSeriesOKC wins series 4-0VegasOKC -24.5

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder held off Utah Jazz, 146–111. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

OKC -24.5 cashed (won by 35). Total cleared the 239.5 OVER by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

UTAH · top performer

Brice Sensabaugh

F · #28

28.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Chet Holmgren

C · #7

20.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. FilipowskiF · #22	38	20	10-25	0-5	0-1	-17	14	6
C. WilliamsF · #5	36	8	3-11	0-2	2-2	-27	4	5
B. SensabaughF · #28	43	34	11-19	6-10	6-6	-26	4	5
O. TshiebweC · #34	20	4	2-4	—	0-2	-39	4	2
A. BaileyG · #19	33	14	6-14	2-6	—	-47	4	2
Bench
S. MykhailiukG · #10	23	17	6-16	5-14	—	-2	4	1
J. KoncharG · #55	26	9	3-7	0-1	3-4	-13	9	3
K. ChandlerG · #0	20	5	2-4	1-1	—	-4	0	5
Team		111	43-100	14-39	11-15		43	29
DNP: K. Love, E. Harkless, I. Collier, B. Mbeng

DNP: K. Love, E. Harkless, I. Collier, B. Mbeng

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	19	10	4-5	—	2-2	+19	8	3
C. HolmgrenC · #7	22	21	8-11	4-5	1-2	+30	7	1
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	24	20	7-10	2-3	4-5	+26	4	7
L. DortG · #5	21	13	5-7	3-5	—	+24	4	2
Jal. WilliamsG · #8	26	15	5-9	1-2	4-4	+31	2	7
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	12	6	2-5	2-4	—	+10	3	3
B. CarlsonC · #15	8	11	5-6	1-2	—	-4	2	0
A. CarusoG · #9	13	5	2-4	1-3	—	+7	4	0
K. WilliamsG · #34	8	8	3-3	2-2	—	-4	1	1
I. JoeG · #11	14	9	3-5	2-4	1-1	+10	2	1
A. WigginsG · #21	8	0	0-3	0-2	—	-4	0	1
C. WallaceG · #22	22	16	6-10	4-5	—	+20	5	1
J. McCainG · #3	15	3	1-4	1-4	—	-1	1	2
A. MitchellG · #25	19	7	3-9	1-4	—	+15	1	7
N. TopicG · #44	8	2	0-1	—	2-2	-4	2	4
Team		146	54-92	24-45	14-16		46	40

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

OKC wins series 4-0

Nov 22

OKC144@

UTAH112

Dec 8

OKC131@

UTAH101

Jan 8

UTAH125@

OKC129

Apr 5

UTAH111@

OKC146today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -24.5

Between 10 and —

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH+25004%

OKC-900099%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -24.5↗SpreadBet OKC -24.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

24.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowUTAH ↔ OKC

UTAH

B. Sensabaugh

Game leader · 43 min30-point game

34 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST

OKC

C. Holmgren

Game leader · 22 min

21 PTS · 7 REB · 1 AST

How it ended

OKC beat UTAH 146-111. C. Holmgren led with 21 PTS, 7 REB, 1 AST. OKC outscored the other side 40-25 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 30 REB · 20 AST

GS 60

Bench(3)

31 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST

GS 28

OKCstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 25 REB · 20 AST

GS 82

Bench(10)

67 PTS · 21 REB · 20 AST

GS 59

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	25	29	27	30	111
OKC	40	35	33	38	146

Period scoring

UTAH won 0 · OKC won 4

Filipowski 8

Gilgeous-Alexander 10

Sensabaugh 12

Gilgeous-Alexander 15

Filipowski 8

Holmgren 11

Sensabaugh 13

Carlson 11

UTAH

OKC

Shooting comparison

UTAH

OKC

43%

43-100

59%

54-92

36%

14-39

3PT

53%

24-45

73%

11-15

88%

14-16

Play-by-play · 450 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 111·OKC 146
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 111·OKC 146
Q4·2.2
shot clock turnover
UTAH 111·OKC 146
Q4·26.2
Thunder defensive team rebound
UTAH 111·OKC 146
Q4·29.8
Brice Sensabaugh misses 15-foot step back jumpshot
UTAH 111·OKC 146
Q4·41.1
Kenrich Williams makes 1-foot two point shot
· ·
UTAH 111·OKC 146
Q4·50.7
Brice Sensabaugh makes 26-foot three pointer
UTAH 111·OKC 144
Q4·1:05
Kenrich Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)
· ·
UTAH 108·OKC 144
Q4·1:18
Brice Sensabaugh makes 4-foot two point shot
UTAH 108·OKC 141
Q4·1:33
Branden Carlson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jared McCain assists)
·
UTAH 106·OKC 141
Q4·1:42
Kennedy Chandler makes two point shot (Cody Williams assists)
· ·
UTAH 106·OKC 138
Q4·1:44
Cody Williams defensive rebound
· ·
UTAH 104·OKC 138
Q4·1:48
Jared McCain misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
UTAH 104·OKC 138
Q4·1:56
Kyle Filipowski makes 12-foot floating jump shot (Brice Sensabaugh assists)
·
UTAH 104·OKC 138
Q4·2:18
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
UTAH 102·OKC 138
Q4·2:18
Aaron Wiggins misses driving floating jump shot
UTAH 102·OKC 138
Q4·2:25
Cody Williams enters the game for Svi Mykhailiuk
· ·
UTAH 102·OKC 138
Q4·2:25
Kyle Filipowski personal foul
UTAH 102·OKC 138
Q4·2:25
Branden Carlson offensive rebound
UTAH 102·OKC 138
Q4·2:29
Nikola Topic misses driving layup
UTAH 102·OKC 138
Q4·2:43
Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 102·OKC 138
Q4·2:43
Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 101·OKC 138
Q4·2:43
Ace Bailey enters the game for Cody Williams
· ·
UTAH 100·OKC 138
Q4·2:43
Jazz Full timeout
UTAH 100·OKC 138
Q4·2:43
Kenrich Williams shooting foul
· ·
UTAH 100·OKC 138
Q4·3:07
Branden Carlson makes dunk (Kenrich Williams assists)
· ·
UTAH 100·OKC 138
Q4·3:11
Nikola Topic offensive rebound
UTAH 100·OKC 136
Q4·3:14
Aaron Wiggins misses 23-foot three point jumper
UTAH 100·OKC 136
Q4·3:28
Cody Williams makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot
· ·
UTAH 100·OKC 136
Q4·3:43
Branden Carlson makes alley oop dunk (Nikola Topic assists)
·
UTAH 98·OKC 136

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

43-100

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

54-92

FG %

14-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

24-45

11-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-16

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

OKC -24.5·O/U 239.5·UTAH +2500/OKC -9000

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 7 players in cohort

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
USG%32.899
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799
Jalen WilliamsOKC · G
DRIVES12.592
Isaiah HartensteinOKC · C
DEFL2.788
Alex CarusoOKC · G
DEFL2.379

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · UTAH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

OKC vs UTAH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Walker KesslerUTAH
10.7± 2.2low
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium

Blocks

Walker KesslerUTAH
1.8± 2.5low
Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

UTAH

league avg

OKC

53.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.2%

117.6

PPG

114.9

118.5

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR