NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14CHA

CHA

43-36

122108

MIN

46-32

NBASun, Apr 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCHA -4.5

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Minnesota Timberwolves and beat them, 122–108.

CHA -4.5 cashed (won by 14). Total cleared the 226.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHA · top performer

LaMelo Ball

G · #1

27.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Bones Hyland

G · #8

19.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	34	25	10-12	4-4	1-1	+16	8	7
M. DiabateF · #14	24	8	3-4	—	2-2	+9	9	4
B. MillerF · #24	34	7	3-15	1-9	—	+22	6	3
L. BallG · #1	31	35	13-22	7-14	2-2	+15	3	8
K. KnueppelG · #7	31	11	4-14	1-4	2-3	+6	4	3
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	19	8	2-3	2-3	2-2	+12	4	1
X. TillmanF · #26	2	4	2-2	—	—	-2	0	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	16	2	1-1	—	—	-1	5	0
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	3	0	—	—	—	-6	2	0
C. WhiteG · #3	20	17	5-11	3-5	4-5	-5	0	1
J. GreenG · #10	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	0	0
S. JamesG · #4	22	5	2-7	1-5	—	+8	5	4
Team		122	45-92	19-45	13-15		46	31
DNP: T. Mann

DNP: T. Mann

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	32	26	9-16	1-5	7-9	-17	8	4
R. GobertC · #27	30	12	6-9	—	0-2	-13	10	2
M. ConleyG · #10	22	11	3-6	3-5	2-2	-4	2	0
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	27	6	2-9	2-8	—	-11	1	3
A. DosunmuG · #13	34	12	4-9	0-2	4-4	-23	4	2
Bench
K. AndersonF · #12	17	2	1-3	—	—	-11	1	3
J. PhillipsF · #4	3	2	1-1	—	—	+6	0	0
J. BeringerF · #19	3	4	1-1	—	2-2	+6	0	0
N. ReidC · #11	25	6	3-14	0-4	—	-12	7	1
J. ClarkG · #22	11	9	3-4	3-3	—	+2	0	2
T. Shannon Jr.G · #1	5	0	—	—	—	+6	0	0
B. HylandG · #8	29	18	5-11	5-11	3-4	-1	6	6
Z. PullinG · #15	2	0	—	—	—	+2	0	1
Team		108	38-83	14-38	18-23		39	24
DNP: J. Ingles, E. Freeman

DNP: J. Ingles, E. Freeman

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 1

MIN122@

CHA105

Apr 5

CHA122@

MIN108today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA-18565%

MIN+15439%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -4.5↗SpreadBet CHA -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHA ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 10pp · 2nd Quarter · 0.7

CHA

L. Ball

Game leader · 31 min30-point game

35 PTS · 3 REB · 8 AST

MIN

B. Hyland

Game leader · 29 min

18 PTS · 6 REB · 6 AST

How it ended

CHA beat MIN 122-108. L. Ball led the way with 35 points and 8 assists. CHA outscored the other side 34-19 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 30 REB · 25 AST

GS 71

Bench(7)

36 PTS · 16 REB · 6 AST

GS 32

MINstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 25 REB · 11 AST

GS 47

Bench(8)

41 PTS · 14 REB · 13 AST

GS 36

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN2nd Quarter · 0.7 · 55-60

+10pp→ 58% WP

Bones Hyland · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)

CHA3rd Quarter · 4:45 · 73-70

+9pp→ 69% WP

Kyle Anderson · misses 7-foot two point shot

CHA3rd Quarter · 1:19 · 83-79

+8pp→ 71% WP

Coby White · makes 26-foot three pointer

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	29	26	34	33	122
MIN	21	39	19	29	108

Period scoring

CHA won 3 · MIN won 1

Ball 9

DiVincenzo 6

Knueppel 8

Hyland 17

White 10

Randle 8

Ball 16

Clark 9

CHA

MIN

Shooting comparison

CHA

MIN

49%

45-92

46%

38-83

42%

19-45

3PT

37%

14-38

87%

13-15

78%

18-23

Play-by-play · 474 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 122·MIN 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 122·MIN 108
Q4·3.7
Jaylen Clark makes 24-foot three pointer
CHA 122·MIN 108
Q4·11.1
Xavier Tillman makes 5-foot two point shot (Sion James assists)
·
CHA 122·MIN 105
Q4·24.9
Pat Connaughton offensive rebound
CHA 120·MIN 105
Q4·27.3
Josh Green misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHA 120·MIN 105
Q4·48.8
Joan Beringer makes alley oop dunk (Jaylen Clark assists)
·
CHA 120·MIN 105
Q4·58.2
Sion James out of bounds lost ball turnover
·
CHA 120·MIN 103
Q4·1:17
Zyon Pullin bad pass turnover (Xavier Tillman steals)
·
CHA 120·MIN 103
Q4·1:26
Xavier Tillman makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Sion James assists)
·
CHA 120·MIN 103
Q4·1:39
Jaylen Clark makes 22-foot three point jumper (Zyon Pullin assists)
·
CHA 118·MIN 103
Q4·1:59
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes reverse dunk (Sion James assists)
·
CHA 118·MIN 100
Q4·2:17
Zyon Pullin enters the game for Bones Hyland
·
CHA 116·MIN 100
Q4·2:17
Joan Beringer makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 116·MIN 100
Q4·2:17
Xavier Tillman enters the game for Moussa Diabate
·
CHA 116·MIN 99
Q4·2:17
Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for Coby White
·
CHA 116·MIN 99
Q4·2:17
Joan Beringer makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 116·MIN 99
Q4·2:17
Coby White personal foul
CHA 116·MIN 98
Q4·2:30
Josh Green enters the game for Kon Knueppel
·
CHA 116·MIN 98
Q4·2:30
Kon Knueppel personal take foul
CHA 116·MIN 98
Q4·2:30
Timberwolves defensive team rebound
CHA 116·MIN 98
Q4·2:31
Sion James misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHA 116·MIN 98
Q4·2:36
Pat Connaughton offensive rebound
CHA 116·MIN 98
Q4·2:39
Coby White misses driving layup
CHA 116·MIN 98
Q4·2:55
Julian Phillips makes driving layup (Jaylen Clark assists)
·
CHA 116·MIN 98
Q4·3:15
Moussa Diabate makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 116·MIN 96
Q4·3:15
Julian Phillips enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu
·
CHA 115·MIN 96
Q4·3:15
Pat Connaughton enters the game for Miles Bridges
·
CHA 115·MIN 96
Q4·3:15
Joan Beringer enters the game for Julius Randle
·
CHA 115·MIN 96
Q4·3:15
Moussa Diabate makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 115·MIN 96

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

45-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-83

FG %

19-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-38

13-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-23

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

CHA -4.5·O/U 226.5·CHA -185/MIN +154

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 8 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Joan BeringerMIN · F
TS%68.397
Julius RandleMIN · F
DRIVES1290
Ayo DosunmuMIN · G
TS%63.087

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs CHA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallCHA
22.2± 8.0high
Brandon MillerCHA
18.8± 5.5high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Moussa DiabateCHA
8.8± 2.9high
Julius RandleMIN
7.2± 2.1high

Assists

LaMelo BallCHA
7.3± 2.5high
Ayo DosunmuMIN
3.9± 3.1high
Donte DiVincenzoMIN
3.4± 2.0high

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Ryan KalkbrennerCHA
1.3± 1.3high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high

Steals

Donte DiVincenzoMIN
1.2± 1.3high
LaMelo BallCHA
1.1± 0.7high
Brandon MillerCHA
1.0± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

MIN

55.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.6%

115.8

PPG

114.9

116.8

26.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

14.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR