NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9CLE

IND

18-60

108117

CLE

49-29

NBASun, Apr 5FinalSeriesCLE wins series 4-0VegasCLE -16.5

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers held off Indiana Pacers, 117–108.

IND +16.5 cashed (CLE won by 9). Total stayed UNDER 240.5 by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

IND · top performer

Micah Potter

C · #11

21.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

Donovan Mitchell

G · #45

28.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. SlawsonF · #18	33	19	7-11	5-7	—	-2	6	2
M. PotterC · #11	30	21	6-10	3-5	6-8	-8	12	4
E. ThompsonG · #55	30	5	1-12	0-6	3-4	+1	1	1
K. BrownG · #24	40	11	3-10	3-7	2-2	-16	7	5
Q. JacksonG · #29	29	15	5-14	1-4	4-5	+3	5	4
Bench
O. ToppinF · #1	23	21	4-10	3-7	10-10	0	8	4
J. HuffC · #32	18	6	3-6	0-1	—	-1	3	2
K. JonesG · #7	19	2	1-7	0-4	—	-12	0	5
T. PeterG · #4	18	8	3-6	2-3	—	-10	1	1
Team		108	33-86	17-44	25-29		43	28
DNP: J. Walker, B. Sheppard

DNP: J. Walker, B. Sheppard

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. BryantC · #3	26	14	6-9	2-4	—	+4	10	2
J. HardenG · #1	34	28	8-17	5-11	7-8	+12	4	7
D. MitchellG · #45	33	38	16-27	2-7	4-5	+8	6	6
M. StrusG · #2	31	4	1-10	1-9	1-2	-8	7	5
K. EllisG · #14	33	13	5-9	3-7	—	+8	5	0
Bench
L. Nance Jr.F · #22	22	6	2-6	1-3	1-2	+5	3	1
N. TomlinF · #35	13	3	1-2	1-2	—	+1	4	0
D. SchroderG · #8	20	6	2-6	0-1	2-2	+12	2	3
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	23	5	2-4	1-2	—	+10	4	1
T. ProctorG · #24	5	0	0-2	0-1	—	-7	1	1
Team		117	43-92	16-47	15-19		46	26
DNP: O. Sarr, T. Enaruna, R. Minix

DNP: O. Sarr, T. Enaruna, R. Minix

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

CLE wins series 4-0

Nov 22

IND109@

CLE120

Dec 2

CLE135@

IND119

Jan 7

CLE120@

IND116

Apr 5

IND108@

CLE117today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -16.5

Between 10 and —

Total

240.5

High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+10009%

CLE-180095%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -16.5↗SpreadBet CLE -16.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

16.5

0.0 since open

Total

240.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowIND ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 9pp · 4th Quarter · 10:55

IND

M. Potter

Game leader · 30 minDouble-double

21 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST

CLE

D. Mitchell

Game leader · 33 min30-point game

38 PTS · 6 REB · 6 AST

How it ended

CLE beat IND 117-108. D. Mitchell led the way with 38 points and 6 assists. CLE outscored the other side 27-17 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 31 REB · 16 AST

GS 57

Bench(4)

37 PTS · 12 REB · 12 AST

GS 31

CLEstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

97 PTS · 32 REB · 20 AST

GS 81

Bench(5)

20 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND3rd Quarter · 3:13 · 85-80

+8pp→ 45% WP

Obi Toppin · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Micah Potter assists)

IND3rd Quarter · 2:05 · 89-84

+9pp→ 46% WP

Taelon Peter · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Obi Toppin assists)

IND4th Quarter · 10:55 · 94-92

+9pp→ 37% WP

Jalen Slawson · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Obi Toppin assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	32	26	33	17	108
CLE	31	24	35	27	117

Period scoring

IND won 2 · CLE won 2

Slawson 9

Mitchell 11

Toppin 8

Harden 13

Toppin 11

Mitchell 11

Brown 6

Mitchell 12

IND

CLE

Shooting comparison

IND

CLE

38%

33-86

47%

43-92

39%

17-44

3PT

34%

16-47

86%

25-29

79%

15-19

Play-by-play · 480 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 108·CLE 117
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 108·CLE 117
Q4·8.1
shot clock turnover
IND 108·CLE 117
Q4·33.0
Kobe Brown makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jay Huff assists)
·
IND 108·CLE 117
Q4·55.7
Taelon Peter defensive rebound
IND 105·CLE 117
Q4·57.8
Keon Ellis misses 26-foot three point jumper
IND 105·CLE 117
Q4·1:10
Keon Ellis defensive rebound
IND 105·CLE 117
Q4·1:10
Craig Porter Jr. blocks Jalen Slawson 's 3-foot running layup
·
IND 105·CLE 117
Q4·1:14
James Harden lost ball turnover (Jalen Slawson steals)
·
IND 105·CLE 117
Q4·1:37
Kobe Brown makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kam Jones assists)
·
IND 105·CLE 117
Q4·1:52
Pacers Full timeout
IND 102·CLE 117
Q4·1:52
Jalen Slawson defensive goaltending violation
IND 102·CLE 117
Q4·1:52
Keon Ellis makes driving layup
IND 102·CLE 117
Q4·2:13
Cavaliers defensive team rebound
IND 102·CLE 115
Q4·2:13
Craig Porter Jr. blocks Kobe Brown 's 1-foot driving layup
·
IND 102·CLE 115
Q4·2:29
Jay Huff defensive rebound
IND 102·CLE 115
Q4·2:32
James Harden misses 13-foot two point shot
IND 102·CLE 115
Q4·2:49
Thomas Bryant defensive rebound
IND 102·CLE 115
Q4·2:49
Kam Jones misses 23-foot three point jumper
IND 102·CLE 115
Q4·3:12
Jay Huff enters the game for Ethan Thompson
·
IND 102·CLE 115
Q4·3:12
Kam Jones enters the game for Quenton Jackson
·
IND 102·CLE 115
Q4·3:12
Taelon Peter enters the game for Micah Potter
·
IND 102·CLE 115
Q4·3:12
Craig Porter Jr. enters the game for Donovan Mitchell
·
IND 102·CLE 115
Q4·3:12
Pacers Full timeout
IND 102·CLE 115
Q4·3:12
Thomas Bryant makes 1-foot dunk (James Harden assists)
·
IND 102·CLE 115
Q4·3:21
Quenton Jackson bad pass turnover (Keon Ellis steals)
·
IND 102·CLE 113
+0.5pp
Q4·3:36
Jalen Slawson defensive goaltending violation
IND 102·CLE 113
Q4·3:36
James Harden makes driving layup
IND 102·CLE 113
+0.7pp
Q4·3:49
Thomas Bryant defensive rebound
IND 102·CLE 111
Q4·3:51
Micah Potter misses 5-foot hook shot
IND 102·CLE 111
+0.8pp

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

33-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-92

FG %

17-44

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-47

25-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-19

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

CLE -16.5·O/U 240.5·IND +1000/CLE -1800

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 8 players in cohort

Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
James HardenCLE · G
DRIVES12.692
Thomas BryantCLE · C
TS%62.584
Dennis SchroderCLE · G
DRIVES6.680
Keon EllisCLE · G
DEFL2.276

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 160 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
T.J. McConnellIND
6.2± 3.1high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

CLE

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.6%

45.8%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

112.4

PPG

114.9

▶

117.4

27.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.1

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR