HOU
49-29
GS
36-42
Recap · NBA
ouston Rockets went into Golden State Warriors and beat them, 117–116. It came down to the final possession.
GS +3.5 cashed (HOU won by 1). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 5.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
HOU · top performer
Kevin Durant
F · #7
31
Pts
8
Reb
8
Ast
GS · top performer
Stephen Curry
G · #30
29
Pts
2
Reb
4
Ast
NBA · Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 37 | 31 | 10-17 | 3-6 | 8-9 | -4 | 8 | 8 | |
| 32 | 23 | 9-12 | 5-7 | — | +15 | 9 | 1 | |
| 37 | 24 | 10-19 | 1-5 | 3-3 | -1 | 6 | 7 | |
| 39 | 18 | 8-11 | — | 2-4 | +2 | 3 | 7 | |
| 26 | 11 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 1-1 | +10 | 0 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 11 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 19 | 2 | 1-9 | 0-4 | — | -4 | 4 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 22 | 6 | 2-3 | 2-3 | — | -4 | 2 | 4 | |
| 12 | 2 | — | — | 2-2 | -7 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 117 | 44-80 | 13-29 | 16-19 | 38 | 30 | ||
| DNP: J. Green, D. Finney-Smith, J. Davison | ||||||||
DNP: J. Green, D. Finney-Smith, J. Davison
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 34 | 7 | 3-4 | 1-1 | — | +6 | 6 | 12 | |
| 32 | 15 | 5-15 | 2-8 | 3-4 | -3 | 4 | 1 | |
| 23 | 9 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 3-3 | -10 | 8 | 3 | |
| 23 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 | — | -7 | 1 | 4 | |
| 37 | 18 | 7-11 | 2-6 | 2-2 | -2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 10 | 5 | 2-2 | — | 1-1 | -2 | 4 | 1 | |
| 26 | 29 | 11-21 | 5-10 | 2-3 | +12 | 2 | 4 | |
| 13 | 6 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 3-3 | +6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | 14 | 6-11 | 0-3 | 2-2 | -3 | 3 | 2 | |
| 12 | 7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | +10 | 1 | 3 | |
| 6 | 0 | — | — | — | -12 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 116 | 42-84 | 14-40 | 18-20 | 31 | 34 | ||
| DNP: M. Leons, Q. Post | ||||||||
DNP: M. Leons, Q. Post
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
55
FG %
50
30
Ast
34
Season series
HOU wins series 2-1
HOU104@GS100GS115@HOU113HOU117@GS116todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
HOU -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
227.5
Standard · +1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
HOU-18064%GS+15040%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
227.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 45pp · 4th Quarter · 4:51
HOUK. Durant
FGame leader · 37 min30-point game
31 PTS · 8 REB · 8 AST
GSS. Curry
GGame leader · 26 min
29 PTS · 2 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
HOU beat GS 117-116. K. Durant paced them with 31 PTS, 8 REB, 8 AST. GS outscored the other side 34-25 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs HOU
Starters vs bench
production by unitHOUstarters 91% of ptsStarters(5)
107 PTS · 26 REB · 25 AST
GS 94
Bench(5)
10 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST
GS 8
GSstarters 47% of ptsStarters(5)
55 PTS · 21 REB · 23 AST
GS 48
Bench(6)
61 PTS · 10 REB · 11 AST
GS 52
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactStephen Curry · makes 32-foot three point jumper (Gary Payton II assists)
Alperen Sengun · enters the game for Reed Sheppard
Stephen Curry · misses 30-foot three point step back jumpshot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 26 | 29 | 37 | 25 | 117 |
| GS | 31 | 22 | 29 | 34 | 116 |
Period scoring
HOU won 2 · GS won 2
Q1
Durant 6
Santos 10
Q2
Jr. 9
Curry 7
Q3
Durant 16
Curry 11
Q4
Sengun 7
de 17
Shooting comparison
55%
44-80
FG
50%
42-84
45%
13-29
3PT
35%
14-40
84%
16-19
FT
90%
18-20
Play-by-play · 456 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 117·GS 116
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 117·GS 116
- Q4·0.1
Warriors offensive team rebound
HOU 117·GS 116
−4pp
- Q4·2.1
Stephen Curry misses 30-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
·
HOU 117·GS 116
−26pp
- Q4·11.1
Alperen Sengun makes 4-foot layup (Kevin Durant assists)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 117·GS 116
−18pp
- Q4·16.1
Alperen Sengun enters the game for Josh Okogie
·
HOU 115·GS 116
- Q4·16.1
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Aaron Holiday
·
HOU 115·GS 116
- Q4·16.1
Rockets Full timeout
HOU 115·GS 116
- Q4·19.6
Amen Thompson defensive goaltending violationBIG MOMENT
HOU 115·GS 116
+45pp
- Q4·19.6
Gary Payton II makes 2-foot layup (Draymond Green assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
HOU 115·GS 116
+5pp
- Q4·33.0
Josh Okogie enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
HOU 115·GS 114
- Q4·33.0
Warriors Full timeout
HOU 115·GS 114
- Q4·35.0
Gary Payton II defensive rebound
HOU 115·GS 114
+4pp
- Q4·38.3
Kevin Durant misses 12-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
HOU 115·GS 114
+10pp
- Q4·57.8
Stephen Curry makes 32-foot three point jumper (Gary Payton II assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
HOU 115·GS 114
+15pp
- Q4·1:09
Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 1
HOU 115·GS 111
+4pp
- Q4·1:09
Draymond Green shooting foulBIG MOMENT
·
HOU 114·GS 111
−11pp
- Q4·1:09
Alperen Sengun makes 10-foot jumper (Kevin Durant assists)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 114·GS 111
−10pp
- Q4·1:27
Stephen Curry makes layup (Draymond Green assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
HOU 112·GS 111
+9pp
- Q4·1:35
De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound
HOU 112·GS 109
+2pp
- Q4·1:38
Jabari Smith Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper
HOU 112·GS 109
+5pp
- Q4·1:55
Gary Payton II makes 2-foot layup (Stephen Curry assists)
· ·
HOU 112·GS 109
+4pp
- Q4·2:10
Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 112·GS 107
−13pp
- Q4·2:40
De'Anthony Melton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
HOU 109·GS 107
+11pp
- Q4·2:58
Kevin Durant bad pass turnover (Brandin Podziemski steals)
·
HOU 109·GS 104
+4pp
- Q4·3:09
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
HOU 109·GS 104
−1pp
- Q4·3:13
Stephen Curry misses two point shot
·
HOU 109·GS 104
−4pp
- Q4·3:34
Aaron Holiday enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate
·
HOU 109·GS 104
- Q4·3:34
Brandin Podziemski enters the game for Pat Spencer
·
HOU 109·GS 104
- Q4·3:34
Amen Thompson out of bounds bad pass turnover
HOU 109·GS 104
+4pp
Team stats
HOU
Away
Stat
GS
Home
44-80
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
42-84
55
FG %
50
13-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-40
16-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-20
30
Assists
34
13
Turnovers
10
Betting line
HOU -3.5·O/U 227.5·HOU -180/GS +150
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort
Reed SheppardHOU · GDEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · FDEFL4.599
Amen ThompsonHOU · GTOUCHES86.297
Alperen SengunHOU · CCONT8.295- Kevin DurantHOU · FTS%64.190
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · HOU favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs HOU.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Kevin DurantHOU25.3± 4.5high
- Stephen CurryGS25.2± 8.3high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS20.4± 6.0high
Rebounds
- Alperen SengunHOU9.4± 3.5high
- Steven AdamsHOU8.6± 2.2high
- Jabari Smith Jr.HOU7.4± 2.5high
Assists
- Draymond GreenGS6.6± 3.0high
- Kevin DurantHOU5.8± 2.2high
- Amen ThompsonHOU5.7± 2.0high
Blocks
- Al HorfordGS1.1± 1.3high
- Alperen SengunHOU1.1± 0.7high
- Kevin DurantHOU1.0± 1.1high
Steals
- Amen ThompsonHOU1.9± 1.3high
- Tari EasonHOU1.8± 1.8high
- Reed SheppardHOU1.6± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
HOU
league avg
GS
53.7%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.1%
47.4%
FG%
47.0
46.2%
114.1
PPG
114.9
114.5
25.1
Assists / G
25.0
▶28.8
14.3
Turnovers / G
14.0
15.1