Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at BAL?

The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 9, 2026

FINAL+1BAL

CHC

52-41

BAL

43-51

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

12,052 attended

Line movement

43 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

BAL no-vig %

54.0%

open 54.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

29.7%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
37.7%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.2%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
36.8%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+108

Close price

+108

Open no-vig

46.0%

Close no-vig

46.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at BAL?: The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

BAL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.0high
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.2± 1.6high
Brandon YoungBAL
5.0± 1.9medium

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.3± 1.3high
Jackson HollidayBAL
1.1± 1.3high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.1± 1.4high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.5± 3.0high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
2.1± 3.5low
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.1± 1.9low
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.8± 1.0high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.1high
Colin ReaCHC
2.7± 2.0high
Aaron CivaleCHC
2.6± 2.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

BAL

.749

OPS

◀

.719

.711

.338

OBP

◀

.318

.320

5.09

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.53

4.09

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.26

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.35

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

CHC 2 · BAL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2
BAL	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.296	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
A. Bregman3B	.238	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. SuzukiRF	.266	4	1	3	2	1	0	0
C. KellyC	.278	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Busch1B	.233	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Hoerner2B	.240	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. HappLF	.220	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
D. SwansonSS	.212	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. AmayaC	.228	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. DeanCF	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.248	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	2	9	2	1	2	5

Player

.296

.238

.266

.278

.233

.240

.220

.212

.228

.400

.248

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. PetersonSP	5.0	2	1	1	4	2	77
G. HollowellRP	1.1	0	0	0	2	1	28
C. ThielbarRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	6
T. FergusonRP	0.1	0	2	2	0	1	9
R. RolisonRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	13
Team	8.0	3	3	3	7	5	133

Player

5.0

1.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

Team

8.0

133

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. RutschmanC	.256	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
T. WardLF	.255	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
G. HendersonSS	.219	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
P. Alonso1B	.249	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
T. O'NeillRF	.196	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
C. Mayo3B	.191	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. BasalloC	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Alexander3B	.302	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. TaverasCF	.236	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. BeaversRF	.230	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jackson2B	.251	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
C. CowserCF	.221	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Holliday2B	.212	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
Team		26	3	3	3	1	7	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. RogersSP	6.0	5	1	1	2	4	89
Y. CanoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	11
T. WellsRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	23
A. KittredgeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
Team	9.0	9	2	2	2	5	136

Team

CHC

BAL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

BAL vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

BAL vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.