Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at CHC?

The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 20, 2026

FINAL+2DET

DET

47-53

CHC

56-44

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

39,023 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 11.5

open O/U 0.0 · +11.5

CHC no-vig %

51.3%

open 50.6% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.3%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
63.2%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.6%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.9%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-113

Close price

-116

Open no-vig

50.6%

Close no-vig

51.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at CHC?: The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+41.3pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

DET

no live price

CHC

★ best

+329DraftKings

edge +41.3pp · implied 21.9%

Book	DET	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	-491	+329★	+41.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHC vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Troy MeltonDET
5.7± 2.4low
Kevin GausmanCHC
5.4± 2.3high
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.2± 1.6high

Hits

Max ClarkDET
1.5± 1.7low
Nico HoernerCHC
1.3± 1.4high
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.3± 1.8low

Total bases

Max ClarkDET
2.7± 3.5low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.6± 4.3low
Alex BregmanCHC
2.1± 2.7high

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.0± 2.2low
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 0.9high
Gleyber TorresDET
0.9± 1.7high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanCHC
3.1± 2.1high
David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.1high
Colin ReaCHC
2.7± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

CHC

.731

OPS

.720

▶

.755

.319

OBP

.318

▶

.339

4.54

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.11

3.56

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.05

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.25

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 8 · CHC 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
DET	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	8
CHC	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	6

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. McGonigleSS	.281	4	0	1	0	0	2	0
G. Torres2B	.288	3	1	2	0	0	2	1
C. Keith3B	.256	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.288	5	2	2	3	1	0	1
D. DinglerC	.268	5	3	4	3	2	0	0
K. CarpenterRF	.206	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.206	5	0	1	2	0	0	2
Z. McKinstry2B	.191	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OutmanCF	.151	5	0	0	0	0	0	4
M. VierlingCF	.205	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. Lee2B	.256	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. MalgeriRF	.269	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		43	8	12	8	3	4	11

Player

.281

.288

.256

.288

.268

.206

.206

.191

.151

.205

.256

.269

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FlahertySP	4.0	4	3	3	2	4	82
D. SommersRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	29
J. WaguespackRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	15
K. FinneganRP	1.1	2	2	2	0	2	26
K. JansenRP	1.0	1	0	0	2	2	28
T. HoltonRP	1.0	2	1	0	0	0	13
Team	10.0	11	6	5	5	10	193

Player

4.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

10.0

193

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.281	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. SuzukiRF	.273	4	1	1	2	1	1	2
M. Busch1B	.245	4	1	1	1	1	1	2
A. Bregman3B	.241	5	2	2	0	0	0	2
I. HappLF	.218	4	1	1	2	1	1	0
N. Hoerner2B	.247	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
P. Ramirez2B	.275	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
D. SwansonSS	.210	4	0	2	0	0	1	0
M. AmayaC	.232	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. ConfortoDH	.240	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. KellyC	.268	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		40	6	11	6	3	5	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TaillonSP	4.1	5	4	4	2	6	75
R. RolisonRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	20
G. HollowellRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	1	12
C. ThielbarRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
T. FergusonRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	20
J. WebbRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	15
T. ThorntonRP	0.0	1	2	1	0	0	4
J. AssadSP	1.0	2	1	0	1	2	26
Team	10.0	12	8	6	4	11	177

Team

DET

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHC vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.