Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at CHC?

The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 21, 2026

FINAL+9CHC

DET

47-54

211

CHC

57-44

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

39,039 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CHC no-vig %

51.5%

open 51.5%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.9%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
63.2%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.8%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.7%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.53

CLV pp

Open price

-117

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

51.5%

Close no-vig

52.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at CHC?: The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.1pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

DET

no live price

CHC

★ best

-123DraftKings

edge +10.1pp · implied 52.7%

Book	DET	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	+102	-123★	+10.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHC vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Troy MeltonDET
5.6± 3.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.2± 1.6high
Matthew BoydCHC
4.4± 1.9low

Hits

Max ClarkDET
2.0± 1.4low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.3± 1.8low
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

Max ClarkDET
3.7± 3.1low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.6± 4.3low
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.2± 2.9high

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.0± 2.2low
Max ClarkDET
1.0± 1.4low
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 0.9high

Earned runs

David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.1high
Colin ReaCHC
2.7± 2.0high
Aaron CivaleCHC
2.6± 2.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

CHC

.727

OPS

.720

▶

.753

.318

OBP

.318

▶

.339

4.51

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.13

3.59

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.09

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.25

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

DET 2 · CHC 11 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2
CHC	6	0	1	0	2	0	2	0	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. Torres2B	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
K. McGonigleSS	.282	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
H. Lee2B	.256	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. DinglerC	.271	3	1	2	2	1	1	0
R. GreeneLF	.285	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.205	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. VierlingCF	.209	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
B. MalgeriRF	.267	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. RogersC	.167	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
Z. McKinstry2B	.190	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.255	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.149	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	2	7	2	1	3	6

Player

.280

.282

.256

.271

.285

.205

.209

.267

.167

.190

.255

.149

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. ValdezSP	0.2	5	6	6	2	1	42
J. RogersC	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	23
T. MaddenRP	3.1	1	1	1	4	5	75
B. HanifeeRP	2.0	2	2	2	1	1	28
Z. McKinstry2B	1.0	2	2	2	3	0	28
Team	8.0	11	11	11	11	9	196

Player

0.2

1.0

3.1

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

196

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.285	2	1	2	2	0	3	0
S. SuzukiRF	.270	3	1	0	2	0	3	1
A. Bregman3B	.241	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
C. KellyC	.268	3	1	1	2	0	2	1
M. Busch1B	.244	5	1	1	1	0	0	3
N. Hoerner2B	.247	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
I. HappLF	.218	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
D. SwansonSS	.215	3	3	2	0	0	1	0
K. AlcantaraDH	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. DeanCF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Ramirez2B	.286	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.243	2	1	1	2	1	1	0
Team		34	11	11	11	1	11	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. PetersonSP	6.2	3	0	0	1	4	94
A. CivaleSP	2.1	4	2	2	2	2	47
Team	9.0	7	2	2	3	6	141

Team

DET

CHC

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHC vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CHC vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.