Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at KC?

The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 4, 2026

FINAL+6KC

MIN

56-58

47-67

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

20,177 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

KC no-vig %

42.8%

open 43.6% · -0.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.8%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
46.9%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.9%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.1%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.78

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+123

Open no-vig

43.6%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at KC?: The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.7pp

best edge · KC · DraftKings

MIN

no live price

★ best

+129DraftKings

edge +2.7pp · implied 42.2%

Book	MIN	KC	Best edge
DraftKings	-149	+129★	+2.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

KC vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

133

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Joe RyanMIN
5.7± 2.6high
Dean KremerMIN
5.4± 2.6low

Hits

Royce LewisMIN
1.1± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high
Salvador PerezKC
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Royce LewisMIN
2.0± 1.8high
Salvador PerezKC
1.9± 1.5high
Kody ClemensMIN
1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

Luke MaileKC
1.0± 1.6low
Royce LewisMIN
0.6± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.7± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium
Noah CameronKC
3.0± 2.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

.726

OPS

◀

.720

.711

.318

OBP

◀

.318

.313

4.68

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.17

4.65

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.85

1.39

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.43

8.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

MIN 2 · KC 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIN +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	2
KC	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. LarnachLF	.283	3	0	0	0	0	2	0
R. JeffersC	.283	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BellDH	.247	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.236	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
R. Lewis3B	.232	4	0	4	0	0	0	0
B. Lee3B	.242	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. RodenRF	.214	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
L. Keaschall2B	.263	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. KreidlerSS	.236	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. MartinRF	.236	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	7	2	1	4	4

Player

.283

.283

.247

.236

.232

.242

.214

.263

.236

.236

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. RyanSP	5.1	7	5	4	2	3	99
K. FunderburkRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	14
T. AdamsRP	0.2	1	2	2	1	0	20
T. RogersRP	0.1	2	1	1	1	0	14
Team	8.0	10	8	7	4	5	147

Player

5.1

1.2

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. JensenC	.231	3	1	0	0	0	2	2
B. Witt Jr.SS	.283	5	2	3	2	0	0	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.253	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
S. PerezDH	.216	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. Massey2B	.262	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
N. Loftin3B	.249	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
I. CollinsLF	.240	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. RaveRF	.294	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. IsbelCF	.250	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
T. TolbertSS	.325	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. MarteRF	.255	1	1	1	2	0	0	0
N. PearsonRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	8	10	8	0	4	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. DobnakSP	5.0	3	1	1	3	1	90
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	16
S. CruzRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	18
N. PearsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	11
Team	9.0	7	2	2	4	4	146

Team

MIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

KC vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.