Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SF at TEX?

The model favors TEX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 3, 2026

FINAL+4SF

48-65

TEX

55-58

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

23,736 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TEX no-vig %

49.9%

open 49.6% · +0.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.9%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
58.0%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.2%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.8%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.32

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-109

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SF at TEX?: The model favors TEX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

TEX vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 2.1high
MacKenzie GoreTEX
6.3± 1.8high

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.2± 0.9high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
1.1± 1.2high
Rafael DeversSF
1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

Jung Hoo LeeSF
2.4± 2.8high
Osleivis BasabeSF
2.2± 3.6low
Ezequiel DuranTEX
2.1± 2.7high

RBIs

Osleivis BasabeSF
1.2± 2.2low
Jung Hoo LeeSF
0.8± 1.4high
Daniel SusacSF
0.7± 1.5high

Earned runs

Carson WhisenhuntSF
3.5± 2.6low
MacKenzie GoreTEX
3.2± 1.9high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

TEX

.723

OPS

.720

.719

.309

OBP

.318

▶

.318

4.20

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.37

Team ERA

4.18

4.33

1.36

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.29

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 5 · TEX 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	5
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Furman2B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. LeeRF	.306	4	2	3	3	2	0	1
W. AdamesSS	.222	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. Devers1B	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SusacC	.258	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. GilbertCF	.239	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
O. BasabeSS	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
G. McCrayCF	.130	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
C. Koss2B	.174	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
Team		32	5	6	4	2	5	6

Player

.000

.306

.222

.248

.258

.239

.333

.130

.174

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. WebbSP	6.0	5	0	0	1	8	96
K. WinnRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	10
S. HentgesRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	20
T. BeckRP	0.1	1	1	1	1	0	17
R. SanmartinRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	4
Team	9.0	7	1	1	3	10	147

Player

6.0

0.2

1.1

0.1

0.2

Team

9.0

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.253	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
W. LangfordLF	.268	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. SeagerSS	.190	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. NimmoRF	.267	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. CarterCF	.204	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. DuranSS	.274	4	1	4	1	1	0	0
A. WynnsC	.188	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Lopez2B	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. OsunaLF	.257	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. DiazC	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. CauleyCF	.213	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	7	1	1	3	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. QuantrillRP	6.0	4	3	1	1	4	87
B. PeoplesRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	27
P. GrayRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	12
N. KinghamRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	22
Team	9.0	6	5	3	5	6	148

Team

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

TEX vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

TEX vs SF.

3 sub-models, blended.