Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at NYY?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 3, 2026

FINAL+6STL

STL

56-57

137

NYY

63-50

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

38,151 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYY no-vig %

63.6%

open 62.8% · +0.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.1%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
59.0%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.6%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.4%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.48

CLV pp

Open price

+157

Close price

+168

Open no-vig

37.2%

Close no-vig

35.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at NYY?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+27.3pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

STL

no live price

NYY

★ best

+192DraftKings

edge +27.3pp · implied 32.2%

Book	STL	NYY	Best edge
DraftKings	-259	+192★	+27.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYY vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 110 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.8± 2.6high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.2± 2.7low
Ryan WeathersNYY
5.6± 1.8high

Hits

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
1.2± 1.0high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 1.0high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
2.5± 2.8high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.1± 3.6high
Ben RiceNYY
1.5± 1.9high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
0.8± 0.9high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.7± 1.9high
Spencer JonesNYY
0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Will WarrenNYY
2.5± 2.3high
Michael McGreevySTL
2.4± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

NYY

.694

OPS

.720

▶

.722

.315

OBP

◀

.318

.309

4.35

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.57

4.15

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.34

1.34

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.19

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 13 · NYY 7 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	2	1	1	2	0	0	0	7	0	13
NYY	0	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	0	7

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.249	3	2	1	0	0	2	0
J. WalkerRF	.285	5	1	2	0	0	0	2
A. Burleson1B	.288	5	3	3	6	3	0	1
I. HerreraDH	.240	3	1	0	0	0	2	0
B. TorresLF	.244	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. WinnSS	.239	4	1	0	0	0	1	3
N. ChurchCF	.232	3	2	2	4	1	2	0
J. FerminLF	.245	5	1	2	1	0	0	2
J. CrooksC	.174	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
B. Jordan3B	.244	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		37	13	13	13	5	7	11

Player

.249

.285

.288

.240

.244

.239

.232

.245

.174

.244

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. McGreevySP	4.1	4	2	2	1	5	91
J. BruihlRP	1.2	2	1	1	0	0	24
R. StanekRP	0.1	3	3	3	0	1	11
G. SorianoRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	18
G. GraceffoRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	24
Team	9.0	10	7	7	1	9	168

Player

4.1

1.2

0.1

0.2

2.0

Team

9.0

168

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.214	5	2	2	1	1	0	1
B. Rice1B	.263	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.500	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
S. JonesCF	.228	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. DominguezRF	.230	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.217	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. McMahon3B	.212	4	2	2	1	1	0	1
J. CaballeroSS	.245	3	1	1	1	1	1	2
A. WellsC	.167	4	1	2	2	1	0	1
Team		36	7	10	7	5	1	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SchlittlerSP	3.0	4	4	4	5	6	83
T. HillRP	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	27
K. CastroRP	1.2	1	0	0	1	2	28
R. YarbroughRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16
A. ChivilliRP	1.0	5	6	6	1	0	37
F. CruzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
Team	9.0	13	13	13	7	11	201

Team

STL

NYY

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

NYY vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYY vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.