Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATH at CIN?

The model favors CIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 4, 2026

FINAL+1CIN

ATH

45-68

CIN

54-58

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

21,714 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CIN no-vig %

56.1%

open 55.9% · +0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.5%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
63.4%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.0%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.4%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.83

CLV pp

Open price

-141

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.9%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATH at CIN?: The model favors CIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

CIN vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 2.5high
Gage JumpATH
5.8± 3.0low
Brady SingerCIN
5.1± 1.1high

Hits

Jeff McNeilATH
1.1± 0.8high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.1± 1.0high
Tommy WhiteATH
1.0± 1.7medium

Total bases

Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.1high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.9± 2.1high
Sal StewartCIN
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.4high
Jose TrevinoCIN
0.7± 1.0high
Elly De La CruzCIN
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Jack PerkinsATH
3.1± 1.7high
Gage JumpATH
2.8± 3.4low
Rhett LowderCIN
2.7± 2.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

CIN

.718

OPS

◀

.719

.706

.319

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.32

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.16

5.40

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.41

1.49

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.40

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

ATH 4 · CIN 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	4
CIN	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

AthleticsCincinnati Reds

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ButlerRF	.208	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
J. WilsonSS	.274	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
T. SoderstromLF	.243	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. HeimC	.227	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. McNeil2B	.254	4	0	2	1	0	0	2
T. White3B	.266	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Walton2B	.179	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. CortesRF	.260	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. BolteCF	.262	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
A. WilliamsSS	.270	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.220	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	4	8	3	0	3	9

Player

.208

.274

.243

.227

.254

.266

.179

.260

.262

.270

.220

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.T. GinnSP	6.0	5	3	3	2	5	91
B. BassoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
H. HarrisRP	0.2	0	2	2	3	1	24
E. AlvaradoRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
Team	8.0	5	5	5	5	7	132

Player

6.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

132

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.276	3	2	1	2	0	1	1
S. Stewart1B	.255	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
J. BledayLF	.228	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
T. StephensonC	.252	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. SuarezDH	.202	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
D. MyersCF	.268	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. RodriguezLF	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
K. Hayes3B	.142	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. McLain2B	.190	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
I. Johnson2B	.100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. FriedlCF	.165	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		27	5	5	3	0	5	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. SingerSP	6.0	5	3	3	3	6	101
S. MollRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	0	20
J. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
E. PaganRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	8	4	3	3	9	149

Team

ATH

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

CIN vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CIN vs ATH.

3 sub-models, blended.