Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at ATL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+22LV

21-9

10987

ATL

18-11

WNBAMon, Aug 3FinalSeriesLV leads series 2-0VegasATL -2.5

LV · top performer

Jackie Young

G · #0

25.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Angel Reese

F · #5

20.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLV ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 5:33

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. TalbotF · #7	8	2	1-1	—	—	+3	0	1
N. SmithF · #3	31	18	9-16	—	—	+9	4	0
A. WilsonC · #22	30	23	8-11	1-1	6-6	+38	6	4
C. GrayG · #12	30	17	8-12	1-4	—	+22	3	6
J. YoungG · #0	34	28	11-17	4-7	2-4	+26	11	10
Bench
B. TurnerF · #21	16	4	2-3	—	—	-5	3	0
K. BellF · #1	13	1	—	—	1-2	+10	2	0
J. LoydG · #24	19	6	2-4	2-3	—	+4	1	1
D. EvansG · #11	13	2	1-3	—	—	-7	0	1
T. LatsonG · #00	2	2	—	—	2-2	+4	0	0
J. PissottG · #13	3	3	1-2	1-2	—	+2	0	0
M. YamamotoG · #18	2	3	1-2	1-2	—	+4	0	1
Team		109	44-71	10-19	11-14		30	24
DNP: C. Parker-Tyus

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	27	7	3-6	1-4	—	-18	1	2
A. ReeseF · #5	27	23	10-19	0-2	3-4	-3	16	2
A. GrayG · #15	30	7	2-10	0-6	3-4	-3	1	2
J. CanadaG · #3	31	7	2-7	0-3	3-4	-13	2	7
R. HowardG · #10	33	19	7-13	3-7	2-2	-22	1	2
Bench
B. JonesF · #42	17	9	4-8	0-1	1-1	-13	7	0
S. KoneF · #23	3	0	—	—	—	-2	1	0
M. OkotC · #11	7	0	0-1	—	—	-11	3	0
S. Walker-KimbroughG · #33	6	6	2-4	—	2-2	-3	1	2
J. SherrodG · #4	8	7	2-4	—	3-3	-6	0	1
A. NyeG · #32	2	2	1-1	—	—	-4	0	0
I. BorlaseG · #20	9	0	0-2	0-1	—	-12	1	1
Team		87	33-75	4-24	17-20		34	19
DNP: T. Paopao

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

44-71

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-75

FG %

10-19

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

4-24

11-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LV leads series 2-0

May 17

LV85@

ATL84

Aug 3

LV109@

ATL87today

Aug 19

ATL@

LVupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

184.5

High-scoring · +19.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LV+11447%

ATL-13557%

2· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -2.5↗SpreadBet ATL -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

184.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

LV beat ATL 109-87. J. Young stuffed the line with 28 PTS, 11 REB, and 10 AST. LV outscored the other side 33-14 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs LV

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LVstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 24 REB · 21 AST

GS 80

Bench(7)

21 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST

GS 17

ATLstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 21 REB · 15 AST

GS 46

Bench(7)

24 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL1st Quarter · 5:33 · 12-11

+7pp→ 51% WP

Rhyne Howard · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)

ATL1st Quarter · 28.0 · 22-21

+6pp→ 51% WP

Naz Hillmon · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylyn Sherrod assists)

ATL2nd Quarter · 4:24 · 39-34

+7pp→ 36% WP

Rhyne Howard · makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Naz Hillmon assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LV	22	33	31	23	109
ATL	24	14	24	25	87

Period scoring

LV won 2 · ATL won 2

Young 5

Howard 5

Young 14

Reese 5

Wilson 11

Howard 7

Gray 5

Reese 7

ATL

Shooting comparison

ATL

62%

44-71

44%

33-75

53%

10-19

3PT

17%

4-24

79%

11-14

85%

17-20

Play-by-play · 385 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 109·ATL 87
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 109·ATL 87
Q4·18.3
Mai Yamamoto makes 24-foot three pointer
LV 109·ATL 87
Q4·29.6
Brianna Turner defensive rebound
LV 106·ATL 87
Q4·33.1
Jaylyn Sherrod misses driving layup
LV 106·ATL 87
Q4·50.1
Ta'Niya Latson makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 106·ATL 87
Q4·50.1
Ta'Niya Latson makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 105·ATL 87
Q4·50.1
Madina Okot shooting foul
LV 104·ATL 87
Q4·55.6
Aaliyah Nye makes driving layup (Shatori Walker-Kimbrough assists)
·
LV 104·ATL 87
Q4·1:12
Sika Kone defensive rebound
LV 104·ATL 85
Q4·1:14
Justine Pissott misses 26-foot running jump shot
LV 104·ATL 85
Q4·1:21
Brianna Turner defensive rebound
LV 104·ATL 85
Q4·1:22
Jaylyn Sherrod misses driving layup
LV 104·ATL 85
Q4·1:34
Justine Pissott makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mai Yamamoto assists)
·
LV 104·ATL 85
Q4·1:43
Jaylyn Sherrod makes running layup
LV 101·ATL 85
Q4·1:47
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough defensive rebound
LV 101·ATL 83
Q4·1:48
Mai Yamamoto misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
LV 101·ATL 83
Q4·2:00
Ta'Niya Latson enters the game for Dana Evans
·
LV 101·ATL 83
Q4·2:00
Mai Yamamoto enters the game for Jackie Young
·
LV 101·ATL 83
Q4·2:00
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Isobel Borlase
·
LV 101·ATL 83
Q4·2:00
Aces Full timeout
LV 101·ATL 83
Q4·2:00
Jaylyn Sherrod makes driving layup (Isobel Borlase assists)
·
LV 101·ATL 83
Q4·2:21
Brianna Turner makes 3-foot layup (Jackie Young assists)
·
LV 101·ATL 81
Q4·2:33
Jackie Young defensive rebound
LV 99·ATL 81
Q4·2:37
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough misses 21-foot jumper
LV 99·ATL 81
Q4·2:43
Isobel Borlase defensive rebound
LV 99·ATL 81
Q4·2:45
Brianna Turner misses driving layup
LV 99·ATL 81
Q4·2:56
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough makes running layup
LV 99·ATL 81
Q4·3:00
Jackie Young bad pass turnover (Shatori Walker-Kimbrough steals)
·
LV 99·ATL 79
Q4·3:23
Justine Pissott enters the game for A'ja Wilson
·
LV 99·ATL 79

Betting line

ATL -2.5·O/U 184.5·LV +114/ATL -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces went into Atlanta Dream and beat them, 109–87. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LV +2.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total cleared the 184.5 OVER by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

ATL

eFG%

shooting

69.0%

46.7%

TOV%

ball control

10.4%

11.6%

OREB%

offensive glass

18.5%

32.4%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

15.5%

22.7%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Jackie YoungLV · G
AST/TO3.396
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.8%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
52.7%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
49.6%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
52.9%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.52 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.74

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-110

Close price

-118

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

51.7%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at ATL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.0pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

no live price

ATL

★ best

+130DraftKings

edge +3.0pp · implied 41.1%

Book	LV	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	-166	+130★	+3.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
26.5± 8.1high
Allisha GrayATL
19.0± 5.8high
Jackie YoungLV
18.7± 8.6high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
11.2± 3.6high
A'ja WilsonLV
9.4± 3.9high
Brionna JonesATL
7.0± 2.5low

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
8.3± 2.0high
Chelsea GrayLV
6.9± 2.4high
Jackie YoungLV
6.7± 3.6high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.9± 1.1high
Rhyne HowardATL
0.9± 1.3high
Brianna TurnerLV
0.7± 0.8high

Steals

Jordin CanadaATL
2.2± 0.9high
Rhyne HowardATL
2.2± 1.6high
Angel ReeseATL
1.8± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Isaac Barnett

Referee

Catherine Chang

Referee

Genesis Perrymond

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Team pages

Las Vegas AcesAtlanta Dream

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop