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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4DET
LAA

LAA

21-35

0
4
DET

DET

22-34

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
27,692 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

DET no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

+0.5-2.0DET SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL57.2%49.2%DET NO-VIG %MODEL 53.8%May 26, 6 PMMay 27, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

LAA 0 · DET 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0000000000
DET110010104

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 58-35
62%Last 30 · 316-197
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.6pp

best edge · LAA · DraftKings

LAA

★ best
+217DraftKings

edge +16.6pp · implied 29.6%

DET

no live price

BookLAADETBest edge
DraftKings+217★-299+16.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Wed, May 27·Final/SeriesLAA win series 2-1/VegasDET -112

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Los Angeles Angels, 4–0.

DET +1.5 cashed (LAA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. SorianoLAA−23.3pp
  2. 2C. KeithDET+17.7pp
  3. 3D. DinglerDET+11.5pp

LAA · top performer

LAA
Donovan Walton

Donovan Walton

3B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Spencer Torkelson

Spencer Torkelson

1B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA21-35
0
4
DET22-34
LAA21-35·DET22-34
LAA

LAA

21-35

0
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-440000024.1
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-220000211.4
SPRINT28.688
V. GrissomV. Grissom★2B
0-330000114.7
SPRINT26.632
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-440100021.0
SPRINT2622
W. MecklerW. Meckler★LF
0-330000009.0
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-3300000110.0
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
0-330000014.6
D. WaltonD. Walton★3B
1-330100013.3
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-330000004.6
Team2-2828020039—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
J. SorianoJ. Soriano★SP
5.073344123.3
B. SuterB. SuterRP
3.03100201.3
Team8.01043461—
DET

DET

22-34

4
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
2-3312000117.7
SPRINT28.381
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
2-3322001011.2
SPRINT28.278
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
2-3302101011.5
SPRINT27.765
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-440110020.8
SPRINT2744
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-330000111.8
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
3-441311016.2
SPRINT26.123
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-330000102.7
G. WorkmanG. Workman★3B
0-220000002.4
H. LeeH. Lee★2B
0-440000000.9
M. VierlingM. VierlingCF
0-110000000.5
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
0-220000010.4
Team10-32324103146—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
C. MizeC. Mize★SP
4.02001605.1
D. AndersonD. AndersonRP
3.000003010.2
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.00000001.3
K. JansenK. JansenRP
0.20001000.9
B. HanifeeB. HanifeeRP
0.10001000.4
Team9.0200390—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • J. Soriano
    105 pitches·26% CSW
    • KC
      37%·84.8 mph·27% whiff
    • FS
      28%·92.5 mph·62% whiff
    • FF
      18%·97.4 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Suter
    40 pitches·28% CSW
    • CH
      30%·77.6 mph·11% whiff
    • FF
      30%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·79.7 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • C. Mize
    58 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      28%·94.3 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      24%·88.9 mph·43% whiff
    • FS
      22%·89.2 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      16%·94.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SV
      10%·82.1 mph·60% whiff
  • D. Anderson
    35 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      49%·95.3 mph·9% whiff
    • CU
      26%·79.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      23%·88.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      3%·88.9 mph·— whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.5 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      38%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      6%·85.7 mph·— whiff
  • K. Jansen
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • FC
      100%·91.7 mph·25% whiff
  • B. Hanifee
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      67%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

10

0

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

LAA win series 2-1

May 26LAALAA10@DETDET6
May 27LAALAA0@DETDET4today
May 28LAALAA7@DETDET1

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 26LAALAA10@DETDET6
May 27LAALAA0@DETDET4today
May 28LAALAA7@DETDET1
Jul 18DETDET@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 19DETDET@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 19DETDET@LAALAAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAA -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA-10852%
DETDET-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAA -1.5↗SpreadBet LAA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 1st Inning

LAALAA
D. Walton

D. Walton

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

J. Soriano

J. Soriano

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 4 BB

DETDET
S. Torkelson

S. Torkelson

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

C. Mize

C. Mize

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

DET beat LAA 4-0.

Win probability

DET vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 63% WP

Keith · singled to center.

LAATop 2nd Inning · 0-1
+6pp→ 37% WP

Soler · singled to left.

DETBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+9pp→ 79% WP

Torkelson · homered to left (373 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0000000000
DET11001010—4

Period scoring

LAA won 0 · DET won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Dingler 1

0
1

Inn 2

Torkelson 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Greene 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Greene 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

LAA
DET

Play-by-play · 521 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  2. T9

    Soler grounded out to first.

    · ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  4. T9

    Brenan Hanifee pitches to Jorge Soler

    · ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  5. T9

    · ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  6. T9

    Grissom walked, Trout to second.

    · ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

    −0.7pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  12. T9

    Brenan Hanifee pitches to Vaughn Grissom

    · ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  13. T9

    Hanifee relieved Jansen

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  14. T9

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  15. T9

    Trout walked.

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  20. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Mike Trout

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  21. T9

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  22. T9

    Neto lined out to second.

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  26. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Zach Neto

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  27. T9

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  28. T9

    O'Hoppe grounded out to first.

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

    +0.7pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 0·DET 4

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

DET

Home

0

Runs

4

2

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

2

TB

16

0

HR

1

3

BB

4

9

K

6

9

LOB

13

Betting line

LAA -1.5·O/U 7.5·LAA -108/DET -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 28, 26sim 95
    37
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 92
    273
    21(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 91
    273
    21(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 91
    215
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 90
    32
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 88
    214
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

DET vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.9± 4.2low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low

Hits

  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Oswald PerazaLAA
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Donovan WaltonLAA
    1.0± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.9± 2.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.8± 1.9high
  • Oswald PerazaLAA
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    0.9± 1.9high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    0.9± 2.1low
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.2± 2.5low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    3.1± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    54.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.2%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.