Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at BOS?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — May 27, 2026

FINAL+8BOS

ATL

37-19

BOS

23-31

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

34,093 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

BOS no-vig %

46.9%

open 45.8% · +1.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

32.7%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
39.1%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.6%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.3%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.19

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-131

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

52.1%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at BOS?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.3pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best

-105DraftKings

edge +19.3pp · implied 48.9%

BOS

no live price

Book	ATL	BOS	Best edge
DraftKings	-105★	-115	+19.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BOS vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

136

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.9± 2.8medium

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.4± 0.8high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.1± 1.0high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.7± 2.5high
Matt OlsonATL
2.3± 2.2high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
2.0± 2.7high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high
Austin RileyATL
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Tyler MahleATL
3.0± 2.4medium
Payton TolleBOS
2.3± 2.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

BOS

.733

OPS

◀

.720

.717

.315

OBP

.318

.317

4.89

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.36

3.66

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.52

1.24

WHIP

1.30

1.23

8.7

K / 9

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

ATL 0 · BOS 8 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BOS	0	0	0	6	0	0	1	1	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.236	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. DubonLF	.259	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Olson1B	.259	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
O. Albies2B	.269	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
A. Riley3B	.221	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. Harris IICF	.298	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MateoSS	.313	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
H. KimSS	.095	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. TrompC	.313	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		32	0	5	0	0	4	8

Player

.236

.259

.259

.269

.221

.298

.313

.095

.313

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ElderSP	3.1	9	6	5	1	1	59
D. DoddRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	21
C. CarrascoRP	4.0	5	2	2	0	2	46
Team	8.0	15	8	7	1	3	126

Player

B. ElderSP

3.1

D. DoddRP

0.2

C. CarrascoRP

4.0

Team

8.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DuranLF	.213	5	2	4	1	1	0	0
C. RafaelaCF	.285	5	1	3	2	0	0	0
W. AbreuRF	.285	5	0	1	2	0	0	0
W. Contreras1B	.283	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. YoshidaDH	.255	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. GasperC	.326	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
N. Sogard3B	.300	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Mayer2B	.219	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.276	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
Team		38	8	15	7	1	1	3

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. EarlySP	7.0	4	0	0	3	7	97
R. WatsonRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	1	34
Team	9.0	5	0	0	4	8	131

Team

ATL

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BOS vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

BOS vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.