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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8BOS
ATL

ATL

37-19

0
8
BOS

BOS

23-31

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
34,093 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

BOS no-vig %

46.9%

open 45.8% · +1.1

+2.0-0.5BOS SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL50.9%41.8%BOS NO-VIG %May 26, 6 PMMay 27, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

ATL 0 · BOS 8 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0000000000
BOS000600118

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+26.1pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best
+165DraftKings

edge +26.1pp · implied 35.4%

BOS

no live price

BookATLBOSBest edge
DraftKings+165★-220+26.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Wed, May 27·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasBOS -115

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox held off Atlanta Braves, 8–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BOS +1.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total pushed exactly on 8.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Jorge Mateo

Jorge Mateo

SS

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Jarren Duran

Jarren Duran

LF

2.200OPS

5-4

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL37-19
0
8
BOS23-31
ATL37-19·BOS23-31
ATL

ATL

37-19

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-33000011
SPRINT26.838
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT26.428
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-33000010
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT27.354
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-33000012
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-44000002
J. MateoJ. Mateo★SS
2-44020000
SPRINT3099
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-44000002
C. TrompC. Tromp★C
1-44010001
Team5-3232050048
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ElderB. Elder★SP
3.1965110
D. DoddD. DoddRP
0.2100000
C. CarrascoC. CarrascoRP
4.0522021
Team8.01587131
BOS

BOS

23-31

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
4-55241100
SPRINT29.294
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
3-55132000
SPRINT28.790
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
1-55012000
SPRINT2872
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-55010002
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
1-44110000
M. GasperM. Gasper★C
1-33210010
N. SogardN. Sogard★3B
1-33010000
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
2-44121000
SPRINT27.560
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
1-44111001
Team15-38388157113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. EarlyC. Early★SP
7.0400370
R. WatsonR. WatsonRP
2.0100110
Team9.0500480

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • B. Elder
    59 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      41%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·91.9 mph·18% whiff
    • FC
      14%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Carrasco
    46 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      37%·91.0 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      35%·85.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      11%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·86.0 mph·25% whiff
  • D. Dodd
    21 pitches·10% CSW
    • SI
      76%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      19%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      5%·82.5 mph·— whiff

BOS

  • C. Early
    97 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      51%·93.5 mph·19% whiff
    • CH
      20%·83.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      14%·81.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      3%·87.2 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      2%·81.3 mph·— whiff
  • R. Watson
    34 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.7 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      26%·85.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      24%·89.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      9%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

15

0

Runs

8

3

Errors

1

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

May 26ATLATL7@BOSBOS6
May 27ATLATL0@BOSBOS8today
May 28ATLATL10@BOSBOS2

Season series

ATL leads series 3-2

May 15BOSBOS2@ATLATL3
May 16BOSBOS3@ATLATL2
May 17BOSBOS1@ATLATL8
May 26ATLATL7@BOSBOS6
May 27ATLATL0@BOSBOS8today
May 28ATLATL10@BOSBOS2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6h

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATLATL-10551%
BOSBOS-11553%

↘5· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 4th Inning

ATLATL
J. Mateo

J. Mateo

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Carrasco

C. Carrasco

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 5 H

BOSBOS
J. Duran

J. Duran

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS

C. Early

C. Early

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

BOS beat ATL 8-0.

Win probability

BOS vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 53% WP

Riley · walked.

BOSBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 75% WP

Yoshida · scored on error, Mayer safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Olson, Gasper safe at third on error.

BOSBottom 4th Inning · 0-4
+8pp→ 94% WP

Rafaela · singled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored and Mayer scored, Duran to second, Duran safe at third on fielding error by catcher Tromp.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0000000000
BOS00060011—8

Period scoring

ATL won 0 · BOS won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
6

Inn 4

Rafaela 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Mayer 1

0
1

Inn 8

Duran 1

0

Inn 9

ATL
BOS

Play-by-play · 528 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  2. T9

    Tromp lined out to third.

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  8. T9

    Ryan Watson pitches to Chadwick Tromp

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  9. T9

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  10. T9

    Kim struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  18. T9

    Ryan Watson pitches to Ha-Seong Kim

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  19. T9

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  20. T9

    Mateo flied out to center.

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  23. T9

    Ryan Watson pitches to Jorge Mateo

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  26. B8

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  27. B8

    Contreras grounded out to third.

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  28. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 0·BOS 8

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

0

Runs

8

5

Hits

15

3

Errors

1

6

TB

18

0

HR

1

4

BB

1

8

K

3

20

LOB

15

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 8·ATL -105/BOS -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.19

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-131

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

52.1%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 13, 26sim 97
    303
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 97
    108
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 96
    301
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 96
    1510
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 95
    103
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 95
    105
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

BOS vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    2.0± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.5%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    38.7%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    38.2%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    38.8%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jorge MateoATL · SS
    SPRINT3099
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872