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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3PHI
PHI

PHI

29-27

3
0
SD

SD

31-24

Petco Park · San Diego, California
37,426 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SD no-vig %

40.7%

open 41.7% · -1.0

+2.0-0.5SD SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL45.7%36.7%SD NO-VIG %May 26, 6 PMMay 27, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 3 · SD 0 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0000020013
SD0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

PHI

no live price

SD

no live price

BookPHISDBest edge
DraftKings-111-117+1.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 25, 26sim 98
    223
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 96
    174
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 95
    141
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 95
    242
    25(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    50
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 94
    141
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, May 27·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 3-0/VegasPHI -148

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 3–0.

PHI -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Trea Turner

Trea Turner

SS

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI29-27
3
0
SD31-24
PHI29-27·SD31-24
PHI

PHI

29-27

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
2-44021001
SPRINT25.818
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44112100
SPRINT29.798
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-44000001
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT26.632
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-44000000
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-33010000
SPRINT28.381
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-33000001
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
1-33110000
SPRINT29.798
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-22100000
Team6-3131363103
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
7.0600090
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
1.0000000
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
1.0100020
Team9.07000110
SD

SD

31-24

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
2-44020001
SPRINT28.483
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
0-44000002
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-44000002
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-44000001
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-44010002
SPRINT27.148
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT2872
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
2-44020000
SPRINT28.688
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-33010000
SPRINT27.148
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-22000000
T. FranceT. France1B
0-11000001
Team7-34340700011
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. BuehlerW. Buehler★SP
5.1322020
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
0.2100000
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.0100010
J. AdamJ. AdamRP
1.0000000
R. MarinaccioR. MarinaccioRP
1.0111001
Team9.0633031

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • C. Sanchez
    100 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      42%·87.1 mph·44% whiff
    • SI
      42%·95.6 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.2 mph·20% whiff
  • J. Alvarado
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      60%·98.9 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      40%·92.8 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      44%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·98.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·87.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      6%·91.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      6%·87.8 mph·— whiff

SD

  • W. Buehler
    58 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      31%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      26%·90.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      24%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      7%·78.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      7%·83.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      5%·89.6 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Marinaccio
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • CH
      43%·81.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      29%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Morejon
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      54%·99.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·99.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Adam
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·88.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·78.8 mph·— whiff
  • J. Estrada
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      55%·96.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      36%·83.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      9%·83.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

3

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 3-0

May 25PHIPHI3@SDSD0
May 27PHIPHI4@SDSD3
May 27PHIPHI3@SDSD0today

Season series

PHI leads series 3-0

May 25PHIPHI3@SDSD0
May 27PHIPHI4@SDSD3
May 27PHIPHI3@SDSD0today
Jun 2SDSD@PHIPHIupcoming
Jun 3SDSD@PHIPHIupcoming
Jun 4SDSD@PHIPHIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI-14860%
SDSD+12345%

↗6· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 21pp · Top 6th Inning

PHIPHI
T. Turner

T. Turner

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 6 H

SDSD
F. Tatis Jr.

F. Tatis Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

W. Buehler

W. Buehler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 3 H

How it ended

PHI beat SD 3-0. Schwarber's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SD vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 41% WP

Stott · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Bohm out at second.

PHITop 6th Inning · 1-0
+21pp→ 75% WP

Schwarber · singled to right, Crawford scored, Sosa to third.

SDBottom 7th Inning · 2-0
+6pp→ 25% WP

Merrill · doubled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0000020013
SD0000000000

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · SD won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Schwarber 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Turner 1

PHI
SD

Play-by-play · 496 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PHI 3·SD 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  3. B9

    Merrill popped out to third.

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  6. B9

    Bogaerts to third on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  7. B9

    Bogaerts to third on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  10. B9

    Bogaerts to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  11. B9

    Bogaerts to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  14. B9

    Jose Alvarado pitches to Jackson Merrill

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  15. B9

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  16. B9

    Laureano struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

    −3pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  20. B9

    Jose Alvarado pitches to Ramon Laureano

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  21. B9

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  22. B9

    Bogaerts singled to left.

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

    +2pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  28. B9

    Jose Alvarado pitches to Xander Bogaerts

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  29. B9

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  30. B9

    Machado struck out swinging.

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

    −2pp

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

SD

Home

3

Runs

0

6

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

9

TB

9

1

HR

0

0

BB

0

3

K

11

6

LOB

11

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 7·PHI -148/SD +123

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.04

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Justin CrawfordPHI · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

SD vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Ty FranceSD
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    53.4%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.3%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.7%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.