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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6CHC
CHC

CHC

30-26

10
4
PIT

PIT

29-27

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
12,340 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PIT no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

+2.0-0.5PIT SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL55.1%47.1%PIT NO-VIG %MODEL 49.5%May 26, 6 PMMay 27, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 10 · PIT 4 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC21010060010
PIT0031000004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.9pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

CHC

★ best
-107DraftKings

edge +1.9pp · implied 48.6%

PIT

no live price

BookCHCPITBest edge
DraftKings-107★-121+1.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 23, 26sim 99
    43
    26(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 98
    49
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 97
    161
    23(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 96
    45
    26(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 95
    236
    26(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 95
    289
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, May 27·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasPIT -125

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 10–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHC -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Michael Conforto

Michael Conforto

RF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

LF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC30-26
10
4
PIT29-27
CHC30-26·PIT29-27
CHC

CHC

30-26

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-55111013
SPRINT29.294
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-55121011
SPRINT28.278
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-33111021
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
2-66120001
I. HappI. Happ★LF
2-66125100
SPRINT27.662
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-55110002
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
0-22000001
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
2-44120001
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
2-44220010
SPRINT27.867
M. ConfortoM. ConfortoRF
1-11112110
SPRINT2622
Team14-41411014102710
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. TaillonJ. Taillon★SP
5.0544242
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
1.0000030
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.0100110
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.0100010
E. RobertsE. RobertsRP
1.0000100
Team9.0744492
PIT

PIT

29-27

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-44110000
SPRINT24.85
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-44113101
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
3-44030000
SPRINT27.969
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-44000001
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-44000003
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
1-44111101
SPRINT29.899
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT25.614
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★C
0-00100040
E. ValdezE. Valdez★OF
0-44000002
Team7-3232474249
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ChandlerB. Chandler★SP
5.0844250
E. SiskE. SiskRP
0.2100110
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
0.1344001
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
1.2221231
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.1000210
Team9.0141097102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • J. Taillon
    75 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      31%·92.1 mph·8% whiff
    • ST
      21%·81.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      16%·85.4 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      15%·92.8 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      13%·80.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      4%·86.8 mph·— whiff
  • P. Maton
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • FC
      41%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·83.8 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      23%·75.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·88.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Webb
    17 pitches·47% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      35%·86.9 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      6%·82.0 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      6%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      41%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      24%·77.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·80.9 mph·— whiff
  • E. Roberts
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FC
      53%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·83.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.2 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • B. Chandler
    91 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      38%·98.2 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      22%·97.9 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      14%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·89.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      7%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·87.5 mph·25% whiff
  • J. Lawrence
    34 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      41%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      35%·82.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      24%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Santana
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      55%·94.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      32%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·88.5 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      5%·91.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      5%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sisk
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • ST
      35%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      24%·78.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      33%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·96.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

Hits

7

10

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 2-2

May 25CHCCHC1@PITPIT2
May 26CHCCHC1@PITPIT12
May 27CHCCHC10@PITPIT4today
May 28CHCCHC7@PITPIT2

Season series

PIT leads series 4-2

Apr 10PITPIT2@CHCCHC0
Apr 11PITPIT4@CHCCHC3
Apr 12PITPIT6@CHCCHC7
May 25CHCCHC1@PITPIT2
May 26CHCCHC1@PITPIT12
May 27CHCCHC10@PITPIT4today
May 28CHCCHC7@PITPIT2
Jul 24CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Jul 25CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Jul 26CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Sep 11PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 12PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 13PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC+10449%
PITPIT-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 28pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

CHCCHC
M. Conforto

M. Conforto

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

J. Taillon

J. Taillon

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

PITPIT
B. Reynolds

B. Reynolds

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

B. Chandler

B. Chandler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHC beat PIT 10-4. Lowe's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+16pp→ 65% WP

Happ · singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored and Hoerner scored, Busch to third.

PITBottom 3rd Inning · 3-3
+28pp→ 62% WP

Lowe · homered to right (387 feet), Rodríguez scored and Horwitz scored.

CHCTop 7th Inning · 7-4
+18pp→ 90% WP

Happ · homered to right (370 feet), Busch scored and Bregman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC21010060010
PIT0031000004

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

10

Runs

4

14

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

23

TB

14

2

HR

2

7

BB

4

10

K

9

26

LOB

10

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 8.5·CHC +104/PIT -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

PIT vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

CHC won 3 · PIT won 1

2
0

Inn 1

Happ 2

1
0

Inn 2

Hoerner 1

0
3

Inn 3

Lowe 3

1
1

Inn 4

Crow-Armstrong 1

Griffin 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

6
0

Inn 7

Happ 3

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CHC
PIT

Play-by-play · 635 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  3. B9

    Valdez grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  6. B9

    Ethan Roberts pitches to Esmerlyn Valdez

    · ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  7. B9

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  8. B9

    Rodríguez walked.

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  15. B9

    Ethan Roberts pitches to Endy Rodriguez

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  16. B9

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  17. B9

    Ozuna flied out to center.

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  22. B9

    Ethan Roberts pitches to Marcell Ozuna

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  23. B9

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  24. B9

    Griffin grounded out to second.

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  28. B9

    Ethan Roberts pitches to Konnor Griffin

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  29. B9

    Roberts relieved Thielbar

    ·

    CHC 10·PIT 4

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHC 10·PIT 4

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

PIT vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    6.0± 4.4low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Oneil CruzPIT
    1.7± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    51.6%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.2%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.2%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.