Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — May 27, 2026

FINAL+6CHC

CHC

30-26

104

PIT

29-27

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

12,340 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PIT no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.0%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
51.4%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.1%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.4%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

CHC

no live price

PIT

no live price

Book	CHC	PIT	Best edge
DraftKings	+104	-125	+0.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PIT vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 112 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.1± 2.2high
Kevin GausmanCHC
5.4± 2.3high

Hits

Brandon LowePIT
1.4± 1.1high
Nico HoernerCHC
1.3± 1.4high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.4± 1.9high
Alex BregmanCHC
2.1± 2.7high
Nico HoernerCHC
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 0.9high
Nico HoernerCHC
0.8± 1.3high
Tyrone TaylorCHC
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanCHC
3.1± 2.1high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high
David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

PIT

.758

OPS

◀

.720

.748

.340

OBP

◀

.318

.334

5.14

Runs / G

◀

4.50

5.08

4.05

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.30

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.33

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 10 · PIT 4 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	2	1	0	1	0	0	6	0	0	10
PIT	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.224	5	1	1	1	0	1	3
N. Hoerner2B	.256	5	1	2	1	0	1	1
M. Busch1B	.232	3	1	1	1	0	2	1
A. Bregman3B	.261	6	1	2	0	0	0	1
I. HappLF	.215	6	1	2	5	1	0	0
S. SuzukiRF	.234	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. BallesterosC	.236	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. KellyC	.306	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
D. SwansonSS	.190	4	2	2	0	0	1	0
K. AlcantaraDH	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. ConfortoDH	.278	1	1	1	2	1	1	0
Team		41	10	14	10	2	7	10

Player

.224

.256

.232

.261

.215

.234

.236

.306

.190

.000

.278

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TaillonSP	5.0	5	4	4	2	4	75
J. WebbRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	17
P. MatonRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	22
C. ThielbarRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
E. RobertsRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	15
Team	9.0	7	4	4	4	9	146

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

146

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. Horwitz1B	.288	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. Lowe2B	.269	4	1	1	3	1	0	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.266	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
N. Gonzales3B	.297	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. CruzCF	.260	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
K. GriffinSS	.261	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
M. OzunaDH	.186	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. RodriguezC	.316	0	1	0	0	0	4	0
E. ValdezRF	.125	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		32	4	7	4	2	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ChandlerSP	5.0	8	4	4	2	5	91
E. SiskRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	17
Y. RamirezRP	0.1	3	4	4	0	0	15
J. LawrenceRP	1.2	2	2	1	2	3	34
D. SantanaRP	1.1	0	0	0	2	1	22
Team	9.0	14	10	9	7	10	179

Team

CHC

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

PIT vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.