Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at TEX?

The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — May 27, 2026

FINAL+1HOU

HOU

25-32

TEX

25-30

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

27,073 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

TEX no-vig %

60.0%

open 60.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.8%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
52.2%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.6%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.8%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.68

CLV pp

Open price

+139

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at TEX?: The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.8pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

HOU

★ best

+124DraftKings

edge +3.8pp · implied 42.7%

TEX

no live price

Book	HOU	TEX	Best edge
DraftKings	+124★	-149	+3.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TEX vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 110 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 2.1high
Peter LambertHOU
5.9± 2.3medium

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.5± 1.0high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.2± 1.6high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
2.8± 2.4high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
2.2± 2.8high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 2.3high

RBIs

Jeremy PenaHOU
0.8± 1.1high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.8± 1.3high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high
Kumar RockerTEX
2.6± 2.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

TEX

.738

OPS

◀

.720

.719

.322

OBP

◀

.318

4.62

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.60

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.33

1.36

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.29

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 4 · TEX 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4
TEX	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PenaSS	.244	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.312	4	2	3	2	2	1	1
C. Walker1B	.255	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
T. TrammellCF	.371	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.209	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. ShewmakeSS	.273	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. MeyersCF	.197	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. MatthewsCF	.210	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. VazquezC	.257	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
I. Paredes3B	.239	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. AllenSS	.302	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	4	8	3	2	4	8

Player

.244

.312

.255

.371

.209

.273

.197

.210

.257

.239

.302

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BurrowsSP	7.0	5	2	2	1	6	91
B. KingRP	0.1	1	1	1	1	1	12
E. De Los SantosRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	3	23
Team	9.0	6	3	3	2	10	126

Player

M. BurrowsSP

7.0

B. KingRP

0.1

E. De Los SantosRP

1.2

Team

9.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.250	4	3	3	2	2	0	0
A. OsunaLF	.268	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. NimmoRF	.267	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Jung3B	.302	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. CarterCF	.175	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
E. DuranSS	.279	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. JansenC	.175	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. Lopez2B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. HaggertyLF	.146	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Foscue2B	.264	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	6	3	2	2	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. deGromSP	6.0	4	2	2	1	6	97
C. MartinRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	17
T. AlexanderRP	0.1	1	2	1	1	0	18
G. CollyerRP	1.2	1	0	0	2	2	24
Team	9.0	8	4	3	4	8	156

Team

HOU

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TEX vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.