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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1HOU
HOU

HOU

25-32

4
3
TEX

TEX

25-30

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
27,073 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

TEX no-vig %

60.0%

open 60.0%

+0.5-2.0TEX SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL64.3%56.0%TEX NO-VIG %May 26, 6 PMMay 27, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 4 · TEX 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0101000204
TEX1010000103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.4pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

HOU

★ best
+124DraftKings

edge +6.4pp · implied 42.7%

TEX

no live price

BookHOUTEXBest edge
DraftKings+124★-149+6.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 28, 26sim 99
    185
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 98
    262
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 98
    232
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 97
    189
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 97
    232
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 96
    121
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, May 27·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 3-1/VegasTEX -149

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Texas Rangers and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

HOU +1.5 cashed (TEX lost outright). Total pushed exactly on 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez

DH

3.050OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson

DH

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU25-32
4
3
TEX25-30
HOU25-32·TEX25-30
HOU

HOU

25-32

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-55010000
SPRINT28.483
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
3-44232211
SPRINT24.64
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-44100011
SPRINT25.920
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
2-33120001
SPRINT2744
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-44000002
B. ShewmakeB. Shewmake★SS
0-22001000
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
0-33000011
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
1-33010010
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
1-44010002
I. ParedesI. Paredes3B
0-11000000
Team8-3333483248
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BurrowsM. Burrows★SP
7.0522161
B. KingB. KingRP
0.1111111
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.2000030
Team9.06332102
TEX

TEX

25-30

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
3-44332200
SPRINT25.716
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
0-33000000
SPRINT2872
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-44011001
SPRINT28.278
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.920
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
0-44000002
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
0-33000013
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
0-22000001
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
1-44010002
SPRINT26.838
N. LopezN. Lopez★2B
0-33000000
J. FoscueJ. Foscue2B
0-22000000
Team6-33333632210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. deGromJ. deGrom★SP
6.0422161
C. MartinC. MartinRP
1.0200000
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
0.1121101
G. CollyerG. CollyerRP
1.2100220
Team9.0843482

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • E. De Los Santos
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • SL
      56%·85.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      31%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·82.1 mph·100% whiff

TEX

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

6

4

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

HOU wins series 3-1

May 25HOUHOU9@TEXTEX0
May 27HOUHOU7@TEXTEX10
May 28HOUHOU4@TEXTEX3today
May 29HOUHOU5@TEXTEX1

Season series

HOU leads series 4-2

May 16TEXTEX0@HOUHOU2
May 16TEXTEX1@HOUHOU4
May 17TEXTEX8@HOUHOU0
May 25HOUHOU9@TEXTEX0
May 27HOUHOU7@TEXTEX10
May 28HOUHOU4@TEXTEX3today
May 29HOUHOU5@TEXTEX1
Jul 11HOUHOU@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 11HOUHOU@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 12HOUHOU@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 1TEXTEX@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 1TEXTEX@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 2TEXTEX@HOUHOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU+12445%
TEXTEX-14960%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.0

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 30pp · Top 8th Inning

HOUHOU
Y. Alvarez

Y. Alvarez

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.050 OPS

M. Burrows

M. Burrows

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

TEXTEX
J. Pederson

J. Pederson

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

J. deGrom

J. deGrom

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

HOU beat TEX 4-3. Alvarez's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TEX vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 4th Inning · 2-2
+12pp→ 41% WP

Alvarez · homered to center (428 feet).

HOUTop 8th Inning · 3-2
+30pp→ 70% WP

Alvarez · homered to center (448 feet).

TEXBottom 8th Inning · 4-3
+19pp→ 36% WP

Pederson · homered to right center (402 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0101000204
TEX1010000103

Period scoring

HOU won 3 · TEX won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Nimmo 1

1
0

Inn 2

Shewmake 1

0
1

Inn 3

Pederson 1

1
0

Inn 4

Alvarez 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
1

Inn 8

Alvarez 1

Pederson 1

0
0

Inn 9

HOU
TEX

Play-by-play · 560 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  2. B9

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  3. B9

    Jansen struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  9. B9

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Danny Jansen

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  10. B9

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  11. B9

    Foscue grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

    −7pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  16. B9

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Justin Foscue

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  17. B9

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  18. B9

    Carter struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

    −10pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  26. B9

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Evan Carter

    ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  29. T9

    · ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

  30. T9

    Walker struck out swinging.

    · ·

    HOU 4·TEX 3

    +4pp

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

4

Runs

3

8

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

15

TB

12

2

HR

2

4

BB

2

8

K

10

17

LOB

11

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 7·HOU +124/TEX -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.68

CLV pp

Open price

+139

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Player projections

TEX vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.7%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    52.6%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.6%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.4%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278