
HOU
25-32

TEX
25-30
Line movement
200 snapshots
TEX spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 8.0 · -0.5
TEX no-vig %
60.0%
open 60.0%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
HOU wins
HOU 4 · TEX 3 (by 1)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked TEX +3pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| TEX | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Line shopping · 1 book
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+6.4pp
best edge · HOU · DraftKings
HOU
★ bestedge +6.4pp · implied 42.7%
TEX
no live price
| Book | HOU | TEX | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +124★ | -149 | +6.4 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
Recap · MLB
ouston Astros went into Texas Rangers and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.
HOU +1.5 cashed (TEX lost outright). Total pushed exactly on 7.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
HOU · top performer

Yordan Alvarez
DH
4-3
AB-H
2
R
2
RBI
TEX · top performer

Joc Pederson
DH
4-3
AB-H
3
R
2
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


HOU
25-32
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.483 | ||||||||
| 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT24.64 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.920 | ||||||||
| 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT2744 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 8-33 | 33 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 7.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
TEX
25-30
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT2872 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.278 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.920 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT26.838 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 6-33 | 33 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 6.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantHOU
TEX
No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
8
Hits
6
4
Runs
3
0
Errors
1
Current series
HOU wins series 3-1
Season series
HOU leads series 4-2
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TEX -1.5
Total
7.0
Defensive · -1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
+1.5 since open
Total
7.0
-0.5 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 30pp · Top 8th Inning
Y. Alvarez
DHBatter of the game2-HR game
3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.050 OPS
M. Burrows
SPStarting pitcher
7.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB
J. Pederson
DHBatter of the game2-HR game
3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS
J. deGrom
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB
How it ended
HOU beat TEX 4-3. Alvarez's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
TEX vs HOU
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactAlvarez · homered to center (428 feet).
Alvarez · homered to center (448 feet).
Pederson · homered to right center (402 feet).
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| TEX | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Period scoring
HOU won 3 · TEX won 2
Inn 1
Nimmo 1
Inn 2
Shewmake 1
Inn 3
Pederson 1
Inn 4
Alvarez 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Alvarez 1
Pederson 1
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 560 plays
End of the 9th inning
HOU 4·TEX 3
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Jansen struck out swinging.
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
−4pp
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Danny Jansen
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Foscue grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
−7pp
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Justin Foscue
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Carter struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
−10pp
Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Pitch 6 : Ball 2
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Evan Carter
·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Bottom of the 9th inning
HOU 4·TEX 3
Middle of the 9th inning
HOU 4·TEX 3
· ·
HOU 4·TEX 3
Walker struck out swinging.
· ·
HOU 4·TEX 3
+4pp
Team stats
HOU
Away
Stat
TEX
Home
4
Runs
3
8
Hits
6
0
Errors
1
15
TB
12
2
HR
2
4
BB
2
8
K
10
17
LOB
11
Betting line
TEX -1.5·O/U 7·HOU +124/TEX -149
The receipts
+0.68
CLV pp
Open price
+139
Close price
+135
Open no-vig
40.0%
Close no-vig
40.7%
Market came to the model · Graded: hit
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 78 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
51.7%
ensemble · TEX favored
Elo Static
52.6%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.6%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.4%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.99 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort