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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ARI
ARI

ARI

31-24

3
2
SF

SF

22-34

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
33,258 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SF no-vig %

45.8%

open 44.9% · +0.9

+2.0-0.5SF SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL50.8%40.9%SF NO-VIG %May 26, 6 PMMay 27, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 3 · SF 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0000021003
SF0020000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

52%Last 7 · 46-42
61%Last 30 · 309-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+36.8pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

ARI

★ best
+303DraftKings

edge +36.8pp · implied 23.5%

SF

no live price

BookARISFBest edge
DraftKings+303★-415+36.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Wed, May 27·Final/SeriesARI wins series 3-0/VegasARI -114

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

SF +1.5 cashed (ARI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Geraldo Perdomo

Geraldo Perdomo

SS

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez

2B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI31-24
3
2
SF22-34
ARI31-24·SF22-34
ARI

ARI

31-24

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
2-55020000
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-44100001
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-22111001
SPRINT26.838
AA. Del Castillo★DH
1-44011001
SPRINT26.326
R. WaldschmidtR. Waldschmidt★CF
0-33000012
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-33011001
SPRINT26.941
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
0-33000011
A. GarciaA. Garcia★C
0-44000000
T. TroyT. Troy★OF
1-33110001
J. BarrosaJ. BarrosaCF
0-11000000
Team6-3232363028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. SorokaM. Soroka★SP
6.0422030
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
0.2000100
B. GarciaB. GarciaRP
0.1000010
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
1.0200000
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
1.0000010
Team9.0622150
SF

SF

22-34

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
2-44120001
SPRINT27.457
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
3-44032000
SPRINT26.632
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
0-44000000
SPRINT2872
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-44000002
SPRINT25.716
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-44000000
B. EldridgeB. Eldridge★DH
0-22000010
D. SusacD. Susac★C
0-33000000
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
1-22110000
SPRINT26.428
W. BrennanW. Brennan★LF
0-22000001
H. BaderH. BaderCF
0-11000001
E. HaaseE. HaaseC
0-11000000
Team6-3131262015
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. McDonaldT. McDonald★SP
6.1632260
M. GageM. GageRP
0.2000010
C. KilianC. KilianRP
2.0000010
Team9.0632280

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • M. Soroka
    83 pitches·27% CSW
    • SV
      30%·80.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      29%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·86.8 mph·17% whiff
  • P. Sewald
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      67%·91.6 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      33%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Thompson
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      64%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Ginkel
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.9 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Garcia
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      43%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·86.0 mph·50% whiff

SF

  • T. McDonald
    86 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      60%·93.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      24%·85.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      15%·83.0 mph·38% whiff
  • C. Kilian
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      58%·95.9 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      32%·79.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      11%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Gage
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • SL
      57%·84.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·92.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

ARI wins series 3-0

May 25ARIARI6@SFSF2
May 27ARIARI7@SFSF5
May 27ARIARI3@SFSF2today

Season series

ARI leads series 6-0

May 19SFSF2@ARIARI12
May 20SFSF3@ARIARI5
May 20SFSF3@ARIARI6
May 25ARIARI6@SFSF2
May 27ARIARI7@SFSF5
May 27ARIARI3@SFSF2today
Jun 30SFSF@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 1SFSF@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 2SFSF@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 28ARIARI@SFSFupcoming
Aug 29ARIARI@SFSFupcoming
Aug 30ARIARI@SFSFupcoming
Aug 30ARIARI@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ARI -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI-11453%
SFSF-10651%

↗5· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

ARIARI
G. Perdomo

G. Perdomo

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

M. Soroka

M. Soroka

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 4 H

SFSF
L. Arraez

L. Arraez

2B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

T. McDonald

T. McDonald

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ARI beat SF 3-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+14pp→ 79% WP

Arraez · singled to center, Gilbert scored and Adames scored.

ARITop 7th Inning · 2-2
+10pp→ 64% WP

Carroll · safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Gage, Marte to second, Troy to third.

SFBottom 8th Inning · 3-2
+12pp→ 38% WP

Adames · doubled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0000021003
SF0020000002

Period scoring

ARI won 2 · SF won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Arraez 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Castillo 1

1
0

Inn 7

Perdomo 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

ARI
SF

Play-by-play · 499 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ARI 3·SF 2

  2. B9

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  3. B9

    Chapman flied out to center.

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

    −5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  5. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Matt Chapman

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  6. B9

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  7. B9

    Devers struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

    −8pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  14. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Rafael Devers

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  15. B9

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  16. B9

    Schmitt popped out to first.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

    −10pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  22. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Casey Schmitt

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  23. B9

    Sewald relieved Ginkel

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ARI 3·SF 2

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ARI 3·SF 2

  26. T9

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  27. T9

    Marte flied out to right.

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

    +0.7pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

  30. T9

    Caleb Kilian pitches to Ketel Marte

    ·

    ARI 3·SF 2

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

SF

Home

3

Runs

2

6

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

6

TB

8

0

HR

0

2

BB

1

8

K

5

12

LOB

7

Betting line

ARI -1.5·O/U 7.5·ARI -114/SF -106

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SF vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low
  • Logan WebbSF
    5.3± 1.7low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.8± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.3± 0.7low

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.1± 1.9high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.6± 2.9high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    48.3%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.0%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.1%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 954 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 25, 26sim 97
    296
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 96
    123
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 96
    24
    6(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 95
    22
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 95
    226
    23(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 95
    124
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs