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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CLE
WSH

WSH

29-28

2
3
CLE

CLE

33-25

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
19,559 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

CLE no-vig %

62.2%

open 63.6% · -1.4

+0.5-2.0CLE SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL67.6%58.2%CLE NO-VIG %MODEL 63.1%May 26, 6 PMMay 27, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

WSH 2 · CLE 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0010000012
CLE000030003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.8pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

CLE

★ best
-144DraftKings

edge +7.8pp · implied 55.3%

BookWSHCLEBest edge
DraftKings+110-144★+7.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 13, 26sim 97
    260
    19(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 94
    23
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 94
    72
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 94
    223
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 94
    222
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 94
    266
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, May 27·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1/VegasCLE -180

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Washington Nationals, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

WSH +1.5 cashed (CLE won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
CJ Abrams

CJ Abrams

SS

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Travis Bazzana

Travis Bazzana

2B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH29-28
2
3
CLE33-25
WSH29-28·CLE33-25
WSH

WSH

29-28

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-33110011
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-33000001
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
1-44110002
SPRINT26.838
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
2-33021000
SPRINT28.483
D. LileD. Lile★LF
0-33001001
SPRINT29.395
J. TenaJ. Tena★DH
0-44000001
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
0-33000011
D. MillasD. Millas★C
1-33010000
SPRINT27.354
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-33000000
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro1B
0-11000001
Team5-3030252028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. PoulinP. Poulin★RP
1.0000110
M. MikolasM. MikolasSP
3.2520010
R. LoveladyR. LoveladyRP
0.1311100
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
1.0100000
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0100100
G. VarlandG. VarlandRP
1.0000000
Team8.01031320
CLE

CLE

33-25

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. BazzanaT. Bazzana★2B
2-44120001
SPRINT27.662
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-22001010
SPRINT27.251
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
2-44121000
SPRINT26.941
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-33010011
SPRINT25.411
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
2-44021000
SPRINT27.765
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
1-33010010
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-44010000
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
0-44100000
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-44010000
Team10-32323103032
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. WilliamsG. Williams★SP
7.0311240
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
1.0000020
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0211020
Team9.0522280

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • M. Mikolas
    60 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      30%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.8 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      23%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·77.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      37%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      26%·84.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      16%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      38%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Lovelady
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      42%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·81.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SL
      55%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      45%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Varland
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      60%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·92.5 mph·— whiff

CLE

  • G. Williams
    94 pitches·28% CSW
    • CU
      27%·82.1 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      23%·96.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.5 mph·8% whiff
    • ST
      20%·87.3 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      7%·92.0 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Smith
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      61%·96.8 mph·11% whiff
    • FS
      39%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Herrin
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • SL
      36%·86.9 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      29%·81.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·94.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

10

2

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

May 25WSHWSH10@CLECLE2
May 26WSHWSH6@CLECLE3
May 27WSHWSH2@CLECLE3today

Season series

WSH wins series 2-1

May 25WSHWSH10@CLECLE2
May 26WSHWSH6@CLECLE3
May 27WSHWSH2@CLECLE3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+14840%
CLECLE-18064%

↗7· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 5th Inning

WSHWSH
C. Abrams

C. Abrams

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

M. Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP

Top reliever

3.2 IP · 1 K · 0 ER · 5 H

CLECLE
T. Bazzana

T. Bazzana

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

G. Williams

G. Williams

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CLE beat WSH 3-2.

Win probability

CLE vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 57% WP

Abrams · doubled to right, Wood scored.

CLEBottom 5th Inning · 1-2
+13pp→ 72% WP

DeLauter · singled to left, Bazzana scored.

WSHTop 9th Inning · 1-3
+10pp→ 25% WP

Abrams · singled to right, Mead to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0010000012
CLE00003000—3

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · CLE won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Abrams 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
3

Inn 5

Ram 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Lile 1

WSH
CLE

Play-by-play · 515 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  2. T9

    Vivas struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

    +9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  8. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Jorbit Vivas

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  9. T9

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  10. T9

    Tena struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

    +6pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  15. T9

    Abrams stole second.

    ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  16. T9

    Abrams stole second.

    ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  18. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Jose Tena

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  19. T9

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  20. T9

    Lile hit sacrifice fly to left, Mead scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

    +10pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 1·CLE 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 1·CLE 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 1·CLE 3

  25. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Daylen Lile

    · ·

    WSH 2·CLE 3

  26. T9

    · ·

    WSH 1·CLE 3

  27. T9

    Abrams singled to right, Mead to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 1·CLE 3

    −10pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 1·CLE 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 1·CLE 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 1·CLE 3

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

2

Runs

3

5

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

7

TB

13

0

HR

0

2

BB

3

8

K

2

11

LOB

15

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 7.5·WSH +148/CLE -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.69

CLV pp

Open price

+163

Close price

+158

Open no-vig

36.4%

Close no-vig

37.0%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Player projections

CLE vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • James WoodWSH
    2.6± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.9± 1.2high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    2.8± 2.8low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    61.6%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.9%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.1%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483