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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3LAD
COL

COL

20-37

1
4
LAD

LAD

36-20

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
50,832 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

LAD no-vig %

76.9%

open 76.5% · +0.4

+0.5-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL81.1%72.5%LAD NO-VIG %May 26, 6 PMMay 27, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

COL 1 · LAD 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +29pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL0001000001
LAD200100014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

58%Last 7 · 52-38
60%Last 30 · 306-202
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.7pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

COL

no live price

LAD

★ best
-454DraftKings

edge +3.7pp · implied 78.4%

BookCOLLADBest edge
DraftKings+343-454★+3.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Wed, May 27·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-0/VegasLAD -454

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Colorado Rockies, 4–1.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1A. PagesLAD+8.6pp
  2. 2A. SenzatelaCOL−8.2pp
  3. 3T. JohnstonCOL−8.1pp

COL · top performer

COL
Tyler Freeman

Tyler Freeman

RF

0.500OPS

4-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Will Smith

Will Smith

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★CF
0-330000031.8
SPRINT29.698
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
1-440100000.1
SPRINT27.148
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
0-221000214.2
SPRINT24.85
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
0-330000000.9
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
0-440000008.1
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-440010024.3
SPRINT27.969
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
0-220000111.6
S. ThompsonS. Thompson★RF
0-220000103.3
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-220000011.6
B. FulfordB. FulfordC
0-110000011.4
K. KarrosK. Karros3B
0-110000011.9
Team1-28281110410—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
T. SuganoT. Sugano★SP
4.26331320.1
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
1.10000002.0
A. SenzatelaA. SenzatelaRP
1.02111018.2
B. CastanoB. CastanoRP
1.00000100.4
Team8.0844243—
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★DH
1-441111014.2
SPRINT2744
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
2-441211008.6
SPRINT28.175
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-441211000.2
SPRINT24.74
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-440000012.6
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-440000017.0
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-110000002.3
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-110100205.7
A. CallA. Call★LF
1-330110013.1
SPRINT27.765
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-330000001.0
H. KimH. KimSS
1-221100000.9
SPRINT28.381
Team8-3030484324—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★DH
6.00114704.2
SPRINT2744
W. KleinW. Klein★RP
1.00000000.6
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.01000200.8
K. HurtK. HurtRP
1.00000102.0
Team9.01114100—

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

1

Hits

8

1

Runs

4

1

Errors

1

Current series

LAD win series 3-0

May 26COLCOL3@LADLAD5
May 27COLCOL6@LADLAD15
May 28COLCOL1@LADLAD4today

Season series

LAD lead series 5-2

Apr 18LADLAD7@COLCOL1
Apr 19LADLAD3@COLCOL4
Apr 19LADLAD6@COLCOL9
Apr 21LADLAD12@COLCOL3
May 26COLCOL3@LADLAD5
May 27COLCOL6@LADLAD15
May 28COLCOL1@LADLAD4today
Jul 7COLCOL@LADLADupcoming
Jul 8COLCOL@LADLADupcoming
Jul 9COLCOL@LADLADupcoming
Aug 18LADLAD@COLCOLupcoming
Aug 19LADLAD@COLCOLupcoming
Aug 20LADLAD@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+34323%
LADLAD-45482%

↘11· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 5pp · Bottom 8th Inning

COLCOL
T. Freeman

T. Freeman

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 0.500 OPS

T. Sugano

T. Sugano

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

LADLAD
W. Smith

W. Smith

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

DH

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 4 BB

How it ended

LAD beat COL 4-1.

Win probability

LAD vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL0001000001
LAD20010001—4

Period scoring

COL won 0 · LAD won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Ohtani 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
1

Inn 4

Castro 1

Call 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Pages 1

0

Inn 9

COL
LAD

Play-by-play · 518 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  2. T9

    Castro struck out swinging.

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  3. T9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  12. T9

    Kyle Hurt pitches to Willi Castro

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  13. T9

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  14. T9

    Johnston grounded out to second.

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

    +0.8pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  16. T9

    Kyle Hurt pitches to Troy Johnston

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  17. T9

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  18. T9

    Goodman grounded out to third.

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

    +0.9pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  24. T9

    Kyle Hurt pitches to Hunter Goodman

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  25. T9

    Hurt relieved Klein

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    COL 1·LAD 4

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    COL 1·LAD 4

  28. B8

    ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  29. B8

    Muncy grounded into double play, first to shortstop, Freeman out at second.

    · ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 1·LAD 4

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

1

Runs

4

1

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

1

TB

18

0

HR

3

4

BB

2

10

K

4

11

LOB

8

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8·COL +343/LAD -454

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.88

CLV pp

Open price

-400

Close price

-424

Open no-vig

76.5%

Close no-vig

77.4%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · CF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAD vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.6± 3.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    5.0± 2.3low

Hits

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Troy JohnstonCOL
    1.2± 0.7high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.4± 2.1high
  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    2.3± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.9± 0.7high
  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Alex CallLAD
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    4.0± 3.7low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    4.0± 3.1low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.0± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

83.7%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    79.5%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    83.3%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    80.3%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 965 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 25, 26sim 95
    273
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 88
    276
    19(H)15
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 82
    272
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 82
    271
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 77
    273
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 76
    2714
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs