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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8SEA
SEA

SEA

28-29

9
1
ATH

ATH

27-29

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
9,612 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.5 · -0.5

ATH no-vig %

45.8%

open 46.7% · -0.9

+2.0+1.0ATH SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 8.5TOTAL50.7%41.8%ATH NO-VIG %May 26, 11 PMMay 27, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 9 · ATH 1 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA3002010309
ATH0000000011

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+61.1pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

SEA

★ best
—DraftKings

edge +61.1pp · implied 0.0%

ATH

no live price

BookSEAATHBest edge
DraftKings—★-102+61.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Wed, May 27·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 3-0/VegasSEA -119

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners went into Athletics and beat them, 9–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Rob Refsnyder

Rob Refsnyder

DH

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Zack Gelof

Zack Gelof

3B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA28-29
9
1
ATH27-29
SEA28-29·ATH27-29
SEA

SEA

28-29

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
3-55130002
SPRINT25.513
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-55113101
SPRINT28.688
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-55010001
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
2-55120000
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
1-33113100
SPRINT26.326
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
1-55010002
C. YoungC. Young★2B
2-44320011
SPRINT27.662
J. PeredaJ. Pereda★C
0-33100020
C. EmersonC. Emerson★3B
2-44122001
L. RaleyL. RaleyRF
0-22000001
Team13-41419138239
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
6.0500260
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0100010
C. CriswellC. CriswellRP
2.0211110
Team9.0811380
ATH

ATH

27-29

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
1-33010010
SPRINT25.716
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
0-44000002
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44010001
SPRINT28.586
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-33010011
SPRINT26.735
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
0-33100011
H. BolteH. Bolte★CF
1-44010001
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-44000001
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
2-44020001
SPRINT28.891
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
2-44020000
SPRINT27.969
Team8-3333180038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SpringsJ. Springs★SP
5.0652171
J. KuhnelJ. KuhnelRP
1.0211100
L. MedinaL. MedinaRP
2.0333121
J. SuarezJ. SuarezRP
1.0200000
Team9.01396392

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • L. Gilbert
    91 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      36%·96.4 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      21%·81.5 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      19%·87.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      11%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      2%·79.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      2%·94.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Criswell
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      46%·91.3 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      27%·86.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      15%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Bazardo
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      53%·95.7 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      47%·83.4 mph·0% whiff

ATH

  • J. Springs
    84 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      40%·91.1 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      36%·85.0 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      21%·80.1 mph·55% whiff
    • ST
      2%·79.9 mph·50% whiff
  • L. Medina
    36 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      33%·96.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      22%·79.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      22%·96.9 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.8 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Kuhnel
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      45%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·90.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      18%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Suarez
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      33%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      28%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      28%·80.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      11%·81.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

8

9

Runs

1

0

Errors

2

Current series

SEA wins series 3-0

May 26SEASEA9@ATHATH2
May 27SEASEA4@ATHATH1
May 27SEASEA9@ATHATH1today

Season series

SEA leads series 4-2

Apr 21ATHATH6@SEASEA4
Apr 22ATHATH5@SEASEA2
Apr 22ATHATH4@SEASEA5
May 26SEASEA9@ATHATH2
May 27SEASEA4@ATHATH1
May 27SEASEA9@ATHATH1today
Sep 4ATHATH@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 5ATHATH@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 6ATHATH@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 6ATHATH@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 12SEASEA@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 13SEASEA@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 13SEASEA@ATHATHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 2.6h

Moneyline

SEASEA-11954%
ATHATH-10250%

↗4· 2.6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 25pp · Top 1st Inning

SEASEA
R. Refsnyder

R. Refsnyder

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

ATHATH
Z. Gelof

Z. Gelof

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

J. Springs

J. Springs

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SEA beat ATH 9-1. Refsnyder's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATH vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEATop 1st Inning · 3-0
+25pp→ 77% WP

Refsnyder · homered to left (368 feet), Crawford scored and Naylor scored.

SEATop 4th Inning · 5-0
+10pp→ 93% WP

Emerson · tripled to right, Young scored and Pereda scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA3002010309
ATH0000000011

Period scoring

SEA won 4 · ATH won 1

3
0

Inn 1

Refsnyder 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Emerson 2

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Emerson 1

0
0

Inn 7

3
0

Inn 8

Rodr 3

0
1

Inn 9

McNeil 1

SEA
ATH

Play-by-play · 577 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  2. B9

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  3. B9

    Hernaiz grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Gelof out at second.

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  6. B9

    Cooper Criswell pitches to Darell Hernaiz

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  7. B9

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  8. B9

    Gelof singled to left.

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  11. B9

    Cooper Criswell pitches to Zack Gelof

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  12. B9

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  13. B9

    McNeil grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Heim scored, Bolte out at second.

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  15. B9

    Cooper Criswell pitches to Jeff McNeil

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  16. B9

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 0

  17. B9

    Bolte singled to right, Heim to third.

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 0

  24. B9

    Cooper Criswell pitches to Henry Bolte

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 0

  25. B9

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 0

  26. B9

    Heim walked.

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 0

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

9

Runs

1

13

Hits

8

0

Errors

2

21

TB

10

2

HR

0

3

BB

3

9

K

8

22

LOB

17

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 9·SEA -119/ATH -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.90

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

46.7%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Player projections

ATH vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Luis SeverinoATH
    6.0± 3.1low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.8± 2.4high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.6± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Brent RookerATH
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    2.7± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    48.9%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.5%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.9%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 25, 26sim 97
    129
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 96
    96
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    94
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 95
    98
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 94
    45
    26(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 94
    175
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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