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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9BAL
TB

TB

34-19

2
11
BAL

BAL

26-30

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
16,317 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BAL no-vig %

49.6%

open 47.4% · +2.2

+2.0+1.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL53.6%43.4%BAL NO-VIG %May 26, 10 PMMay 27, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

TB 2 · BAL 11 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0000010102
BAL5010212011

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+38.5pp

best edge · BAL · DraftKings

TB

no live price

BAL

★ best
—DraftKings

edge +38.5pp · implied 0.0%

BookTBBALBest edge
DraftKings+1580—★+38.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 17, 26sim 98
    106
    21(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 97
    157
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 96
    1510
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 95
    307
    1(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 95
    1015
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 95
    1912
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, May 27·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 3-0/VegasTB -125

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Tampa Bay Rays, 11–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BAL +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Jonathan Aranda

Jonathan Aranda

1B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Gunnar Henderson

Gunnar Henderson

SS

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB34-19
2
11
BAL26-30
TB34-19·BAL26-30
TB

TB

34-19

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-44010010
SPRINT29.496
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-33000000
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
2-22120010
SPRINT25.29
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-11000021
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
1-44010000
R. ViladeR. Vilade★RF
0-33002010
SPRINT28.483
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-44010001
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
0-44000001
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
3-44030001
SPRINT27.354
O. DunnO. Dunn3B
0-22000000
V. Mesa Jr.V. Mesa Jr.CF
1-22110000
N. FortesN. FortesC
1-11010000
Team10-34342102054
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. MatzS. Matz★SP
3.0766221
H. BiggeH. BiggeRP
1.0100010
J. HeasleyJ. HeasleyRP
4.0855022
Team8.0161111253
BAL

BAL

26-30

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-44110002
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
2-44223201
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
3-44130010
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-55110000
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
2-44320010
SPRINT2872
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
2-44121000
SPRINT2993
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
1-22011001
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
3-44136100
SPRINT28.175
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
0-44000000
J. HollidayJ. Holliday2B
0-11000000
W. WilsonW. Wilson3B
0-11000000
C. CowserC. CowserCF
1-22110001
Team16-3939111611325
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
TT. Gibson★SP
5.2611410
K. AkinK. AkinRP
1.1100000
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0000030
A. NunezA. NunezRP
1.0000000
Team9.01022540

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • J. Heasley
    64 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      39%·91.4 mph·5% whiff
    • SL
      33%·83.2 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      19%·84.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      9%·79.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Matz
    62 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      47%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·82.5 mph·15% whiff
    • CU
      19%·77.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      5%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Bigge
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      40%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      20%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      10%·80.9 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • T. Gibson
    100 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      33%·95.0 mph·8% whiff
    • FC
      26%·92.1 mph·8% whiff
    • CU
      17%·84.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      13%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      41%·90.4 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      35%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·93.4 mph·33% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    15 pitches·7% CSW
    • SI
      53%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      33%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·94.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Akin
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • FF
      64%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Nunez
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      40%·96.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      30%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·86.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

16

2

Runs

11

0

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 3-0

May 25TBTB7@BALBAL9
May 26TBTB1@BALBAL6
May 27TBTB2@BALBAL11today

Season series

Series tied 3-3

May 18BALBAL6@TBTB16
May 19BALBAL1@TBTB4
May 20BALBAL3@TBTB5
May 25TBTB7@BALBAL9
May 26TBTB1@BALBAL6
May 27TBTB2@BALBAL11today
Aug 14BALBAL@TBTBupcoming
Aug 15BALBAL@TBTBupcoming
Aug 16BALBAL@TBTBupcoming
Aug 17BALBAL@TBTBupcoming
Aug 21TBTB@BALBALupcoming
Aug 22TBTB@BALBALupcoming
Aug 23TBTB@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-12556%
BALBAL+10449%

↘210· 3.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 1st Inning

TBTB
J. Aranda

J. Aranda

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Heasley

J. Heasley

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 8 H

BALBAL
G. Henderson

G. Henderson

SS

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

T. Gibson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

How it ended

BAL beat TB 11-2.

Win probability

BAL vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 46% WP

Caminero · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Simpson out at second.

BALBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+16pp→ 68% WP

Henderson · homered to right (392 feet), Ward scored.

BALBottom 1st Inning · 0-5
+9pp→ 91% WP

Alexander · singled to right, Alonso scored and Mayo scored, Taveras to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0000010102
BAL50102120—11

Period scoring

TB won 1 · BAL won 4

0
5

Inn 1

Henderson 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

O'Neill 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Alexander 2

1
1

Inn 6

Vilade 1

Henderson 1

0
2

Inn 7

Alexander 2

1
0

Inn 8

Vilade 1

0

Inn 9

TB
BAL

Play-by-play · 582 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  2. T9

    Mesa Jr. fouled out to third.

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  6. T9

    Anthony Nunez pitches to Victor Mesa Jr.

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  7. T9

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  8. T9

    Dunn grounded out to second.

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  11. T9

    Anthony Nunez pitches to Oliver Dunn

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  12. T9

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  13. T9

    Simpson grounded out to first.

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  19. T9

    Anthony Nunez pitches to Chandler Simpson

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  20. T9

    Nunez relieved Kittredge

    ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TB 2·BAL 11

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TB 2·BAL 11

  23. B8

    · ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  24. B8

    Mayo flied out to left.

    · ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  25. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  26. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  29. B8

    Jonathan Heasley pitches to Coby Mayo

    · ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

  30. B8

    · ·

    TB 2·BAL 11

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

2

Runs

11

10

Hits

16

0

Errors

0

10

TB

29

0

HR

3

5

BB

2

4

K

5

28

LOB

18

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 9.5·TB -125/BAL +104

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.61

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-122

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Player projections

BAL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.6%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    38.7%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    40.0%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    38.6%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.64 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872