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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TOR
MIA

MIA

26-31

1
2
TOR

TOR

27-29

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
42,372 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TOR no-vig %

59.3%

open 58.3% · +1.0

+0.5-2.0TOR SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL63.3%54.3%TOR NO-VIG %May 26, 6 PMMay 27, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

MIA 1 · TOR 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA1000000001
TOR000011002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.6pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

MIA

no live price

TOR

★ best
+138DraftKings

edge +12.6pp · implied 39.5%

BookMIATORBest edge
DraftKings-181+138★+12.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Wed, May 27·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1/VegasTOR -156

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Miami Marlins, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

MIA +1.5 cashed (TOR won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez

SS

2.000OPS

4-4

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Kazuma Okamoto

Kazuma Okamoto

3B

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA26-31
1
2
TOR27-29
MIA26-31·TOR27-29
MIA

MIA

26-31

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
3-33130010
SPRINT2872
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-33000011
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
4-44041000
SPRINT28.381
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT2622
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-33000001
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-33000001
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
1-22010001
SPRINT28.586
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
1-33010002
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
0-44000001
H. HernandezH. HernandezLF
1-11010000
SPRINT28.483
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja3B
0-11000000
E. RuizE. RuizRF
0-11000000
Team11-32321111028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. PerezE. Perez★SP
4.0300090
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
0.2111200
A. NardiA. NardiRP
1.1111021
J. KingJ. KingRP
1.0000010
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0000010
Team8.05222131
TOR

TOR

27-29

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-44011002
SPRINT27.148
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-33020011
SPRINT26.123
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-44000002
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-22000002
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
1-22111101
SPRINT26.123
Y. PinangoY. Pinango★LF
0-33000003
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-33000000
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-33010000
SPRINT27.560
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
0-22100012
SPRINT25.513
G. SpringerG. SpringerDH
0-22000000
Team5-28282521213
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
5.0611250
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.2100000
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.1200020
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0200010
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0000000
Team9.01111280

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • E. Perez
    73 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      38%·98.7 mph·35% whiff
    • SI
      21%·97.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      16%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      14%·91.2 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      5%·78.8 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      5%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Petersen
    23 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      57%·97.1 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      30%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Nardi
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      36%·86.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      7%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.9 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      7%·80.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. King
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      45%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      27%·82.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      9%·77.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      9%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·81.7 mph·100% whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      40%·97.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      30%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·82.2 mph·— whiff

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    95 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      62%·94.3 mph·3% whiff
    • FS
      33%·85.2 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      5%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    23 pitches·48% CSW
    • SL
      65%·87.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      17%·91.1 mph·100% whiff
  • L. Varland
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • KC
      44%·86.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      19%·92.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      19%·98.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·90.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·97.3 mph·— whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FC
      62%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • SL
      57%·74.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      43%·83.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

5

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

May 25MIAMIA8@TORTOR2
May 26MIAMIA1@TORTOR8
May 27MIAMIA1@TORTOR2today

Season series

TOR wins series 2-1

May 25MIAMIA8@TORTOR2
May 26MIAMIA1@TORTOR8
May 27MIAMIA1@TORTOR2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6h

Moneyline

MIAMIA+12944%
TORTOR-15661%

↘7· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 26pp · Bottom 8th Inning

MIAMIA
X. Edwards

X. Edwards

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

E. Perez

E. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 3 H

TORTOR
K. Okamoto

K. Okamoto

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TOR beat MIA 2-1. Guerrero Jr.'s play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 5th Inning · 1-1
+19pp→ 58% WP

Lukes · doubled to right, Heineman scored.

TORBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+19pp→ 74% WP

Okamoto · homered to right center (393 feet).

TORBottom 8th Inning · 1-2
+26pp→ 88% WP

Guerrero Jr. · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA1000000001
TOR00001100—2

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

1

Runs

2

11

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

12

TB

9

0

HR

1

2

BB

2

8

K

13

18

LOB

9

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIA +129/TOR -156

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

TOR vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · TOR won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Lopez 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Lukes 1

0
1

Inn 6

Okamoto 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIA
TOR

Play-by-play · 559 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  2. T9

    Pauley lined out to center.

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  6. T9

    Tyler Rogers pitches to Graham Pauley

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  7. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  8. T9

    Ruiz flied out to right.

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

    +5pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  10. T9

    Tyler Rogers pitches to Esteury Ruiz

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  11. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  12. T9

    Sanoja popped out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

    +6pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  16. T9

    Tyler Rogers pitches to Javier Sanoja

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  17. T9

    Rogers relieved Varland

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  18. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  19. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  20. B8

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  21. B8

    Springer grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

    −0.6pp

  22. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  23. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  24. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  25. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  26. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  27. B8

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to George Springer

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  28. B8

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

  29. B8

    Varsho grounded out to first.

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

    −0.9pp

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 1·TOR 2

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.17

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

TOR vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.3± 2.2low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    4.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    2.0± 1.8high
  • George SpringerTOR
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.9%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    53.5%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.2%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.5%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 12, 26sim 97
    280
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 97
    111
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 97
    183
    16(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    71
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 95
    185
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 95
    121
    4(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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