Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at MIL?

The model favors MIL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Box Score — May 27, 2026

FINAL+1MIL

STL

29-25

MIL

33-20

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

30,391 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIL no-vig %

58.1%

open 57.1% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.4%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
63.6%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.7%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.1%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.64 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.99

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

57.1%

Close no-vig

58.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at MIL?: The model favors MIL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.1pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

STL

no live price

MIL

★ best

-180DraftKings

edge +2.1pp · implied 61.5%

Book	STL	MIL	Best edge
DraftKings	+148	-180★	+2.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIL vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 112 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.7high
Logan HendersonMIL
6.2± 2.8low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.0± 4.3medium

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.2± 0.9high
Brice TurangMIL
1.1± 0.9high
Cooper PrattMIL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.1± 3.6high
Jake BauersMIL
2.0± 1.7high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Luis LaraMIL
0.8± 1.5medium
Brice TurangMIL
0.7± 0.9high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.7± 1.9high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Robert GasserMIL
2.5± 3.1low
Michael McGreevySTL
2.4± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

MIL

.694

OPS

.720

▶

.735

.315

OBP

.318

▶

.337

4.35

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.97

4.15

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.47

1.34

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.16

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

STL 1 · MIL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
MIL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.234	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. HerreraDH	.264	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
A. Burleson1B	.282	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. WalkerRF	.300	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
N. Gorman3B	.217	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. WinnSS	.230	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. TorresLF	.316	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
P. PagesC	.219	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
V. Scott IICF	.194	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
Y. PozoC	.242	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	1	8	1	0	2	8

Player

.234

.264

.282

.300

.217

.230

.316

.219

.194

.242

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MaySP	7.0	2	2	1	0	9	87
J. RomeroRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
Team	8.0	3	2	1	0	10	102

Player

D. MaySP

7.0

J. RomeroRP

1.0

Team

8.0

102

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. YelichDH	.280	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. ChourioLF	.267	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Turang2B	.276	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. ContrerasC	.303	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Bauers1B	.287	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. MitchellCF	.236	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
L. Rengifo3B	.207	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. FrelickRF	.217	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
D. Hamilton3B	.223	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Vaughn1B	.327	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OrtizSS	.195	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	2	3	1	0	0	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PatrickRP	4.0	5	1	1	1	4	61
S. DrohanSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	27
A. AshbyRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	30
T. MegillRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	8	1	1	2	8	131

Team

STL

MIL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIL vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIL vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.