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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1MIL
STL

STL

29-25

1
2
MIL

MIL

33-20

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
30,391 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIL no-vig %

58.1%

open 57.1% · +1.0

-1.0-2.0MIL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL62.1%53.1%MIL NO-VIG %May 26, 11 PMMay 27, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

STL 1 · MIL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0001000001
MIL000000022

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.0pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

STL

no live price

MIL

★ best
-186DraftKings

edge +5.0pp · implied 61.0%

BookSTLMILBest edge
DraftKings+141-186★+5.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Wed, May 27·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 3-0/VegasMIL -180

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off St. Louis Cardinals, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

STL +1.5 cashed (MIL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Garrett Mitchell

Garrett Mitchell

CF

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL29-25
1
2
MIL33-20
STL29-25·MIL33-20
STL

STL

29-25

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.560
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-33010010
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
0-44000001
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
2-44120000
SPRINT28.891
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-44010002
SPRINT257
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-44010001
B. TorresB. Torres★OF
1-44011001
P. PagesP. Pages★C
1-33010001
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-22000011
Y. PozoY. PozoC
0-11000001
Team8-3333181028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MayD. May★SP
7.0221090
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.0100010
Team8.03210100
MIL

MIL

33-20

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
1-44011001
SPRINT27.148
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
0-44000002
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-44000002
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-33000000
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
0-22000002
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
1-33110002
SPRINT29.798
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT27.148
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-22100000
SPRINT28.790
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-22000000
A. VaughnA. Vaughn1B
0-11000001
Team3-28282310010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PatrickC. Patrick★RP
4.0511140
SS. DrohanRP
2.0100010
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
2.0100120
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0100010
Team9.0811280

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • D. May
    87 pitches·41% CSW
    • FC
      33%·92.7 mph·31% whiff
    • FF
      23%·96.5 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      23%·86.3 mph·43% whiff
    • CU
      9%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·90.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. Romero
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      67%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·82.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      7%·87.2 mph·— whiff

MIL

  • C. Patrick
    61 pitches·38% CSW
    • FC
      39%·89.6 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      36%·95.4 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.3 mph·14% whiff
    • SV
      3%·87.5 mph·— whiff
  • A. Ashby
    30 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      57%·97.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      20%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.0 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      3%·91.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      3%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Drohan
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      37%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      19%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Megill
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      85%·98.1 mph·40% whiff
    • KC
      15%·89.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

3

1

Runs

2

2

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 3-0

May 25STLSTL1@MILMIL5
May 26STLSTL0@MILMIL6
May 27STLSTL1@MILMIL2today

Season series

MIL leads series 4-1

May 4MILMIL3@STLSTL6
May 5MILMIL0@STLSTL0
May 6MILMIL6@STLSTL2
May 25STLSTL1@MILMIL5
May 26STLSTL0@MILMIL6
May 27STLSTL1@MILMIL2today
Jul 6MILMIL@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 7MILMIL@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 7MILMIL@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 8MILMIL@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 9MILMIL@STLSTLupcoming
Sep 25STLSTL@MILMILupcoming
Sep 26STLSTL@MILMILupcoming
Sep 27STLSTL@MILMILupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL+14840%
MILMIL-18064%

↘7· 2.6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 31pp · Bottom 8th Inning

STLSTL
J. Walker

J. Walker

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

D. May

D. May

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 2 H

MILMIL
G. Mitchell

G. Mitchell

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.667 OPS

C. Patrick

C. Patrick

RP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIL beat STL 2-1. Yelich's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Win probability

MIL vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 45% WP

Torres · tripled to right, Walker scored.

MILBottom 8th Inning · 1-0
+22pp→ 53% WP

Mitchell · doubled to left.

MILBottom 8th Inning · 1-1
+31pp→ 67% WP

Yelich · singled to right, Mitchell scored, Frelick to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0001000001
MIL00000002—2

Period scoring

STL won 1 · MIL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Torres 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Yelich 1

0

Inn 9

STL
MIL

Play-by-play · 470 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  2. T9

    Pozo struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

    +9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  6. T9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Yohel Pozo

    · ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  7. T9

    Pozo hit for Pagés

    ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  8. T9

    · ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  9. T9

    Torres flied out to center, Winn to third.

    · ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

    +4pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  13. T9

    Winn stole second.

    ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  14. T9

    Winn stole second.

    ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  17. T9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Bryan Torres

    · ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  18. T9

    ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  19. T9

    Winn reached on infield single to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

    −7pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  23. T9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Masyn Winn

    ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  24. T9

    ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  25. T9

    Gorman flied out to left.

    ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

    +4pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  28. T9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Nolan Gorman

    ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  29. T9

    Megill relieved Ashby

    ·

    STL 1·MIL 2

  30. T9

    Ortiz at shortstop.

    STL 1·MIL 2

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

1

Runs

2

8

Hits

3

2

Errors

0

12

TB

4

0

HR

0

2

BB

0

8

K

10

17

LOB

12

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 8·STL +148/MIL -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.99

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

57.1%

Close no-vig

58.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

MIL vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.4%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    63.8%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.1%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.5%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.96 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 26, 26sim 97
    240
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 97
    241
    8(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 93
    282
    19(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 92
    202
    15(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 92
    172
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 92
    283
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs