MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ATH

ATH

60-71

SEA

69-61

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

36,524 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.9%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
57.1%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.3%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low
Bryce MillerSEA
5.8± 3.2low
Logan GilbertSEA
5.8± 2.5low

Hits

Jacob WilsonATH
1.2± 0.6high
Shea LangeliersATH
1.1± 0.9high
Zack GelofATH
1.1± 0.4high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
2.4± 2.7high
Nick KurtzATH
2.3± 2.8high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.8± 1.3high
Jonah HeimATH
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 2.4low
Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

SEA

.735

OPS

◀

.715

.326

OBP

◀

.319

.318

4.38

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.24

4.62

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.59

1.42

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.20

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 2 · SEA 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
ATH	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2
SEA	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
N. Kurtz1B	.308	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. LangeliersC	.265	4	0	1	1	0	1	1
B. RookerDH	.270	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. SoderstromLF	.271	3	0	0	0	0	2	0
J. WilsonSS	.313	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
L. ButlerRF	.227	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. HernaizSS	.260	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. CortesRF	.300	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Urias2B	.230	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. ThomasRF	.232	2	1	0	0	0	0	2
B. Harris3B	.208	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	2	5	2	0	5	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.308

.265

.270

.271

.313

.227

.260

.300

.230

.232

.208

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. SpringsSP	5.1	2	1	1	2	3	74
M. KellyRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	17
S. NewcombRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	15
T. FergusonRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	13
H. HarrisRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	18
Team	10.0	3	1	1	4	7	137

Player

5.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

0.2

Team

10.0

137

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. ArozarenaLF	.238	5	1	1	1	1	0	1
C. RaleighC	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RodriguezCF	.259	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. SuarezDH	.179	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Naylor1B	.244	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. GarverC	.213	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. RoblesRF	.271	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J.P. CrawfordSS	.263	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Young2B	.236	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Polanco1B	.246	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		33	1	3	1	1	4	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
G. KirbySP	6.0	4	1	1	3	3	98
G. SpeierRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
E. BazardoRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	12
A. MunozRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
C. FergusonRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	0	14
Team	10.0	5	2	1	5	7	153

Team

ATH

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs ATH.

3 sub-models, blended.