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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TOR
TOR

TOR

76-54

7
6
MIA

MIA

60-69

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
24,943 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 7 · MIA 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789101112R
TOR0010021001117
MIA0000003011106

Final play

“End of the 12th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 25, 25sim 96
    223
    21(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 96
    1612
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 8, 25sim 95
    123
    6(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 94
    125
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 94
    225
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 94
    229
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 23·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Miami Marlins and beat them, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
George Springer

George Springer

DH

1.500OPS

6-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Javier Sanoja

Javier Sanoja

3B

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/12
TOR76-54
7
6
MIA60-69
TOR76-54·MIA60-69
TOR

TOR

76-54

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
3-66232100
SPRINT25.920
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-55100010
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
4-66241000
SPRINT25.716
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
2-44021010
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-66010001
T. FranceT. France★1B
0-33001012
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-22110001
SPRINT27.148
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-55000000
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-44011000
T. HeinemanT. HeinemanC
0-11000000
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-22101010
SPRINT29.597
Team12-44447127144
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. BerriosJ. Berrios★SP
6.1422080
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
0.2211110
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0000020
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0111110
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.1110100
T. NanceT. NanceRP
1.2210010
B. LittleB. LittleRP
1.0000000
Team12.010643130
MIA

MIA

60-69

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-66000002
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
1-66011002
SPRINT27.765
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-55000012
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-44110001
SPRINT25.614
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
1-33110011
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
2-55021001
SPRINT26.326
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
3-55133001
SPRINT28.381
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
1-44010011
M. AcostaM. Acosta★SS
0-22000000
H. HernandezH. HernandezLF
0-11000000
D. HillD. HillRF
0-11200001
O. LopezO. LopezSS
1-33111001
SPRINT28.381
Team10-454561060313
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. JunkJ. Junk★SP
5.2633130
C. GibsonC. GibsonRP
0.1000200
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
1.0311001
T. ZuberT. ZuberRP
2.0100010
R. HenriquezR. HenriquezRP
1.0010100
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
2.0220000
Team12.01274441

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • J. Berrios
    81 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      42%·91.2 mph·7% whiff
    • SV
      25%·81.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      22%·84.4 mph·64% whiff
    • FF
      7%·91.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      4%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      58%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      26%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      11%·84.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      5%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      56%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      33%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Varland
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.9 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      44%·87.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.3 mph·— whiff
  • T. Nance
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      62%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      15%·85.9 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Little
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      90%·93.5 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      10%·87.0 mph·— whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      75%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·82.1 mph·— whiff

MIA

  • J. Junk
    92 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      26%·87.3 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      12%·82.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·81.7 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Phillips
    32 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      34%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·84.0 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      22%·83.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      13%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·96.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Zuber
    27 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      41%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      41%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·89.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Faucher
    22 pitches·5% CSW
    • FC
      36%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      27%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·97.4 mph·— whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    18 pitches·11% CSW
    • ST
      44%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·96.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      11%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Gibson
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • CU
      38%·79.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      23%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·85.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·92.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·80.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

10

7

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

Aug 22TORTOR5@MIAMIA2
Aug 23TORTOR7@MIAMIA6today
Aug 24TORTOR3@MIAMIA5

Season series

TOR leads series 2-0

Aug 22TORTOR5@MIAMIA2
Aug 23TORTOR7@MIAMIA6today
Aug 24TORTOR3@MIAMIA5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 29pp · Bottom 10th Inning

TORTOR
G. Springer

G. Springer

DH

Batter of the game

3-for-6 · 1 HR · 1.500 OPS

J. Berrios

J. Berrios

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 4 H

MIAMIA
J. Sanoja

J. Sanoja

3B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 R · 1.200 OPS

J. Junk

J. Junk

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TOR beat MIA 7-6. Marsee's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Last play

End of the 12th inning

Win probability

MIA vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11I12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 9th Inning · 4-4
+23pp→ 63% WP

Sanoja · singled to left, Hill scored.

MIABottom 10th Inning · 5-5
+29pp→ 72% WP

Marsee · doubled to center, Lopez scored.

MIABottom 11th Inning · 6-5
+28pp→ 61% WP

Johnston · singled to left, Hill to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789101112R
TOR0010021001117
MIA0000003011106

Period scoring

TOR won 3 · MIA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Springer 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Kirk 1

1
3

Inn 7

Springer 1

Johnston 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Sanoja 1

1
1

Inn 10

France 1

Marsee 1

1
1

Inn 11

Gim 1

Sanoja 1

1
0

Inn 12

Bichette 1

TOR
MIA

Play-by-play · 745 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 12

    End of the 12th inning

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  2. B12

    ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  3. B12

    Ramírez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Edwards out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

    −13pp

  4. B12

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  5. B12

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  6. B12

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  7. B12

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  8. B12

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  9. B12

    Brendon Little pitches to Agustin Ramirez

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  10. B12

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  11. B12

    Marsee lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

    −13pp

  12. B12

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  13. B12

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  14. B12

    Brendon Little pitches to Jakob Marsee

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  15. B12

    ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  16. B12

    Edwards grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Lopez out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

    −20pp

  17. B12

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  18. B12

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  19. B12

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  20. B12

    Brendon Little pitches to Xavier Edwards

    ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  21. B12

    Little relieved Nance

    ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  22. B12

    Bottom of the 12th inning

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  23. M12

    Middle of the 12th inning

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  24. T12

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  25. T12

    Varsho grounded out to second.

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

    +4pp

  26. T12

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  27. T12

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  28. T12

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Daulton Varsho

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  29. T12

    ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

  30. T12

    Heineman grounded into fielder's choice to first, Bichette out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 7·MIA 6

    +6pp

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

7

Runs

6

12

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

18

TB

12

1

HR

0

4

BB

3

4

K

13

23

LOB

22

Player projections

MIA vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    4.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    44.9%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.9%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.9%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Derek HillCHW · RF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872