Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 23, 2025

FINAL+1TOR

TOR

76-54

MIA

60-69

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

24,943 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
44.9%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.9%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.2%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.7high
Eury PerezMIA
6.2± 2.9high
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.4± 1.9high

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.1high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.0± 0.6high
George SpringerTOR
1.0± 0.6high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.1± 2.4high
George SpringerTOR
1.6± 1.3high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.6± 1.5high

RBIs

Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Joe MackMIA
0.6± 0.7high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Jameson TaillonTOR
3.5± 2.7medium
Max ScherzerTOR
3.4± 3.9low
Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

MIA

.678

OPS

.719

▶

.727

.302

OBP

.318

▶

.324

3.89

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.30

4.04

Team ERA

4.18

4.00

1.31

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.24

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 7 · MIA 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	R
TOR	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	7
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	1	1	0	6

Final play

“End of the 12th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.295	6	2	3	2	1	0	0
A. BargerRF	.253	5	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. Bichette3B	.302	6	2	4	1	0	0	0
A. KirkC	.295	4	0	2	1	0	1	0
D. VarshoCF	.233	6	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. France1B	.308	3	0	0	1	0	1	2
N. LukesRF	.255	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
E. Clement2B	.274	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. GimenezSS	.217	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. HeinemanC	.328	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. StrawRF	.260	2	1	0	1	0	1	0
Team		44	7	12	7	1	4	4

Player

.295

.253

.302

.295

.233

.308

.255

.274

.217

.328

.260

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerriosSP	6.1	4	2	2	0	8	81
L. VarlandRP	0.2	2	1	1	1	1	16
S. DominguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	19
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	18
M. FluhartyRP	0.1	1	1	0	1	0	4
T. NanceRP	1.2	2	1	0	0	1	13
B. LittleRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
Team	12.0	10	6	4	3	13	161

Player

6.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

0.1

1.2

1.0

Team

12.0

161

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. Edwards2B	.293	6	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MarseeCF	.338	6	0	1	1	0	0	2
A. RamirezC	.231	5	0	0	0	0	1	2
L. HicksC	.261	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
E. Wagaman1B	.234	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
T. JohnstonRF	.238	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
J. Sanoja3B	.246	5	1	3	3	0	0	1
D. MyersCF	.237	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. AcostaSS	.133	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. HernandezLF	.274	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. HillCF	.204	1	2	0	0	0	0	1
O. LopezSS	.240	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
Team		45	6	10	6	0	3	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JunkSP	5.2	6	3	3	1	3	92
C. GibsonRP	0.1	0	0	0	2	0	13
T. PhillipsRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	32
T. ZuberRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	27
R. HenriquezRP	1.0	0	1	0	1	0	18
C. FaucherRP	2.0	2	2	0	0	0	22
Team	12.0	12	7	4	4	4	204

Team

TOR

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.