Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 23, 2025

FINAL+4PIT

COL

37-93

PIT

56-74

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

22,588 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.4%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
64.4%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.6%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.4%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.1± 2.2high
Jared JonesPIT
5.2± 2.6low

Hits

Brandon LowePIT
1.4± 1.1high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 1.1high
Kyle KarrosCOL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.4± 1.9high
Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.5high
Willi CastroCOL
2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

Mickey MoniakCOL
0.9± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.1± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

PIT

.746

OPS

.720

.748

.324

OBP

.318

▶

.334

4.82

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.08

5.53

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.30

1.52

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.33

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

COL 1 · PIT 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
PIT	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FreemanRF	.288	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. Bernabel3B	.295	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. GoodmanC	.274	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
J. BeckLF	.276	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
E. TovarSS	.265	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. DoyleCF	.247	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
K. Karros3B	.279	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
Y. FernandezRF	.232	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Ritter2B	.256	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		33	1	6	1	1	1	13

Player

.288

.295

.274

.276

.265

.247

.279

.232

.256

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. FreelandSP	5.0	7	5	5	3	6	94
J. HillRP	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	2
N. AndersonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	8
L. PeraltaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	22
V. VodnikRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	22
Team	8.0	11	5	5	4	10	148

Player

5.0

0.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

148

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TrioloSS	.205	4	2	2	2	1	0	0
N. Gonzales3B	.280	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.246	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
T. PhamLF	.267	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. McCutchenDH	.241	3	1	1	2	1	1	1
J. BartC	.245	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
A. CanarioLF	.208	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
L. PegueroSS	.217	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.265	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
Team		32	5	11	5	2	4	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BurrowsSP	4.0	2	0	0	1	5	57
C. MlodzinskiRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	5	35
K. NicolasRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	17
C. HoldermanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	22
Y. RamirezRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	19
Team	9.0	6	1	1	1	13	150

Team

COL

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.