MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11BOS

BOS

71-59

121

NYY

69-60

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

45,512 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
49.5%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.3%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.5%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYY vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.7± 2.0low
Payton TolleBOS
6.6± 4.0low
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.5± 2.9low

Hits

Willson ContrerasBOS
1.4± 0.7high
Jarren DuranBOS
1.2± 1.2high
Ben RiceNYY
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Jarren DuranBOS
2.4± 3.0high
Willson ContrerasBOS
2.4± 1.5high
Ben RiceNYY
2.4± 2.8high

RBIs

Jarren DuranBOS
0.9± 0.9high
Ben RiceNYY
0.8± 1.1high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Brayan BelloBOS
3.1± 3.8low
Will WarrenNYY
2.2± 2.1low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.0± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 12 · NYY 1 (by 11)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	7	12
NYY	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
R. Anthony★LF	2-4	4	2	2	1	0	1	2
SPRINT27.457
A. Bregman★3B	0-4	4	0	0	1	0	1	0
J. Duran★LF	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	1	1
T. Story★SS	3-5	5	2	3	3	1	0	0
SPRINT27.969
N. Lowe★DH	2-4	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
M. Yoshida★DH	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. Rafaela★CF	2-5	5	2	2	1	0	0	0
SPRINT28.790
D. Hamilton★SS	3-5	5	2	3	0	0	0	2
SPRINT29.294
C. Narvaez★C	3-4	4	2	3	2	1	0	1
SPRINT257

Team	17-39	39	12	17	10	2	5	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

2-4

0-4

1-4

3-5

2-4

1-4

2-5

3-5

3-4

Team

17-39

	Pitching
G. Crochet★SP	7.0	5	1	1	1	11	1
G. WeissertRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	1	0
J. WilsonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. HicksRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Team	9.0	7	1	1	2	13	1

Pitching

Player

7.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
P. Goldschmidt★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT24.74
A. Judge★RF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
SPRINT26.838
C. Bellinger★LF	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.560
G. Stanton★DH	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	3
SPRINT23.81
A. Rosario★3B	2-3	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.278
T. Grisham★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Volpe★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Caballero★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
A. Wells★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Rice1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	7-33	33	1	7	1	1	2	13

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI