Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 23, 2025

FINAL+2PHI

WSH

53-76

PHI

75-54

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

44,771 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.6%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
66.7%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.3%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
67.9%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Cristopher SanchezPHI
6.3± 3.1high

Hits

Luis ArraezPHI
1.5± 1.3high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.3± 1.1high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
1.0± 0.9low

Total bases

Trea TurnerPHI
2.1± 2.1high
Bryce HarperPHI
2.0± 1.6high
Abimelec OrtizWSH
2.0± 2.7low

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.7± 1.2high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
0.7± 1.4low
Bryce HarperPHI
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.1± 1.7high
Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

PHI

.765

OPS

◀

.720

.706

.326

OBP

◀

.318

.305

5.30

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.39

4.78

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.17

1.40

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.30

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

WSH 4 · PHI 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	4
PHI	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.260	5	1	2	0	0	0	3
C. AbramsSS	.265	5	1	1	1	1	0	2
J. BellDH	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.263	4	1	3	2	1	0	0
D. LileLF	.263	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CrewsRF	.206	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. MillasC	.313	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. House3B	.240	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
R. Hassell IIICF	.233	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. Chaparro1B	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	4	9	4	2	1	12

Player

.260

.265

.227

.263

.263

.206

.313

.240

.233

.222

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ParkerRP	5.0	6	6	6	1	3	103
O. RibaltaRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	1	26
K. PilkingtonRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	17
Team	8.0	8	6	6	3	5	146

Player

M. ParkerRP

5.0

103

O. RibaltaRP

2.0

K. PilkingtonRP

1.0

Team

8.0

146

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.301	3	1	1	1	1	1	0
K. SchwarberDH	.249	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Harper1B	.263	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.278	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.282	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
N. CastellanosRF	.256	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
H. BaderCF	.240	4	1	3	0	0	0	1
E. SosaLF	.263	3	1	1	3	1	0	0
We. Wilson3B	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. MarshLF	.263	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	6	8	6	2	3	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NolaSP	6.0	5	3	2	1	6	97
D. RobertsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
M. StrahmRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	2	14
O. KerkeringRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. DuranRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	9	4	3	1	12	140

Team

WSH

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.