HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2PHI
WSH

WSH

53-76

4
6
PHI

PHI

75-54

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
44,771 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

WSH

league avg

PHI

PHI

.739

OPS

◀

.715

.681

.321

OBP

◀

.319

.296

5.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.74

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.04

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

WSH 4 · PHI 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0000120104
PHI000510006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

63%Last 7 · 60-35
61%Last 30 · 301-194
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 23·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Washington Nationals, 6–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1M. ParkerWSH−18.9pp
  2. 2J.T. RealmutoPHI+14.8pp
  3. 3A. BohmPHI+14.0pp

WSH · top performer

WSH
Luis Garcia Jr.

Luis Garcia Jr.

1B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Trea Turner

Trea Turner

SS

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodRF
.2605120003
C. AbramsSS
.2655111102
J. BellDH
.2273000000
L. Garcia Jr.1B
.2634132100
D. LileLF
.2633000000
D. CrewsRF
.2064110001
D. MillasC
.3133000011
B. House3B
.2404011002
R. Hassell IIICF
.2334010002
- A. Chaparro1B
.2221000001
Team364942112

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. ParkerRP
5.066613103
O. RibaltaRP
2.01001126
K. PilkingtonRP
1.01001117
Team8.086635146

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerSS
.3013111110
K. SchwarberDH
.2494000001
B. Harper1B
.2634110000
J.T. RealmutoC
.2784111001
A. Bohm3B
.2823111010
N. CastellanosRF
.2563000010
H. BaderCF
.2404130001
E. Sosa2B
.2633113100
W. Wilson3B
.2223000002
- B. MarshLF
.2630000000
Team31686235

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
A. NolaSP
6.05321697
D. RobertsonRP
1.00000314
M. StrahmRP
0.22110214
O. KerkeringRP
0.1000001
J. DuranRP
1.02000114
Team9.0943112140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • M. Parker
    103 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      55%·94.4 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      30%·85.6 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      11%·82.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      4%·85.4 mph·— whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      35%·96.2 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      31%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·96.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      12%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      53%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      35%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·85.7 mph·— whiff

PHI

  • A. Nola
    97 pitches·31% CSW
    • KC
      44%·78.1 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      32%·92.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      15%·85.4 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      2%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Robertson
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • FC
      64%·91.7 mph·67% whiff
    • KC
      29%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      7%·91.5 mph·— whiff
  • M. Strahm
    14 pitches·57% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      43%·83.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      7%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Duran
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      57%·101.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      21%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      21%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • ST
      100%·87.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

8

4

Runs

6

0

Errors

1

Current series

PHI wins series 4-2

Apr 29WSHWSH6@PHIPHI7
Apr 30WSHWSH2@PHIPHI7
May 1WSHWSH4@PHIPHI2
Aug 22WSHWSH5@PHIPHI4
Aug 23WSHWSH4@PHIPHI6today
Aug 24WSHWSH2@PHIPHI3

Season series

PHI leads series 7-5

Mar 27PHIPHI7@WSHWSH3
Mar 29PHIPHI11@WSHWSH6
Mar 30PHIPHI1@WSHWSH5
Apr 29WSHWSH6@PHIPHI7
Apr 30WSHWSH2@PHIPHI7
May 1WSHWSH4@PHIPHI2
Aug 14PHIPHI2@WSHWSH3
Aug 15PHIPHI6@WSHWSH2
Aug 16PHIPHI0@WSHWSH2
Aug 17PHIPHI11@WSHWSH9
Aug 22WSHWSH5@PHIPHI4
Aug 23WSHWSH4@PHIPHI6today
Aug 24WSHWSH2@PHIPHI3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 4th Inning

WSHWSH
L. Garcia Jr.

L. Garcia Jr.

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

M. Parker

M. Parker

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

PHIPHI
T. Turner

T. Turner

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

A. Nola

A. Nola

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PHI beat WSH 6-4.

Win probability

PHI vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 80% WP

Realmuto · doubled to center, Harper scored.

PHIBottom 4th Inning · 0-5
+11pp→ 96% WP

Sosa · homered to left center (380 feet), Bohm scored and Bader scored.

WSHTop 9th Inning · 4-6
+9pp→ 15% WP

Hassell III · singled to left, House to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0000120104
PHI00051000—6

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · PHI won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
5

Inn 4

Sosa 3

1
1

Inn 5

House 1

Turner 1

2
0

Inn 6

Abrams 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Garc 1

0

Inn 9

WSH
PHI

Play-by-play · 549 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  2. T9

    Abrams lined out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

    +7pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  5. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to CJ Abrams

    · ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  6. T9

    · ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  7. T9

    Wood struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

    +8pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  12. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to James Wood

    · ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  13. T9

    · ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  14. T9

    Hassell III singled to left, House to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

    −9pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  17. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Robert Hassell III

    · ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  18. T9

    ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  19. T9

    House doubled to right.

    ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

    −4pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  22. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Brady House

    ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  23. T9

    ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  24. T9

    Millas grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

    +2pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  29. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Drew Millas

    ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

  30. T9

    Duran relieved Kerkering

    ·

    WSH 4·PHI 6

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

4

Runs

6

9

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

18

TB

17

2

HR

2

1

BB

3

12

K

5

17

LOB

6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PHI vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    8.1± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.0± 3.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    6.0± 4.1low

Hits

  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Daylen LileWSH
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Alec BohmPHI
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Brandon MarshPHI
    2.2± 2.2high
  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    1.0± 1.8high
  • Alec BohmPHI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Aaron NolaPHI
    3.5± 2.6low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.4± 3.1low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.7± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.9%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    66.7%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.3%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    65.9%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.