HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 4@MIN 4
    -2.2pppeak
  • MLBTop 3
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -18.1pphigh
  • MLBMid 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBBot 9
    ARI 5@CIN 2
    -51.8pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA6:34 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 27
    +9.4pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2DET
KC

KC

66-64

2
4
DET

DET

78-53

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
37,709 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

KC

KC

league avg

DET

DET

.692

OPS

.715

▶

.706

.315

OBP

.319

.315

3.91

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.10

4.45

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.97

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

8.2

K / 9

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

KC 2 · DET 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0001010002
DET001110014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 23·Final/SeriesDET wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Kansas City Royals, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1M. WachaKC−37.1pp
  2. 2Z. McKinstryDET+25.0pp
  3. 3M. GarciaKC−18.8pp

KC · top performer

KC
Bobby Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr.

SS

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Andy Ibanez

Andy Ibanez

2B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiLF
.2304000001
B. Witt Jr.SS
.2984231100
V. Pasquantino1B
.2634011000
M. Garcia3B
.2984000001
S. PerezC
.2474010001
A. Frazier2B
.2894010001
J. India2B
.2353010010
R. GrichukRF
.2553010000
K. IsbelCF
.2651000011
- N. Loftin2B
.2041000000
- J. RaveRF
.1990000000
Team32282125

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. WachaSP
6.083314108
T. ClarkeRP
1.00000112
S. LongRP
1.01111124
Team8.094426144

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. Keith3B
.2613000001
G. Torres2B
.2622010021
K. CarpenterRF
.2593000000
S. Torkelson1B
.2444121100
R. GreeneLF
.2634010000
D. DinglerC
.2683000002
Z. McKinstry2B
.2653110001
J. BaezSS
.2683110000
J. RogersC
.1823022000
- A. Ibanez2B
.2581111100
- W. PerezRF
.2641000001
Team30494226

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
C. PaddackSP
5.05111162
T. MeltonSP
1.12111128
T. HoltonRP
1.11000110
W. VestRP
1.10000217
Team9.082225117

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • M. Wacha
    108 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      25%·88.4 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      22%·78.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·93.0 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      17%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.1 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      6%·75.3 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Long
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      29%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·92.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      25%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·76.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      42%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.7 mph·— whiff

DET

  • C. Paddack
    62 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      16%·89.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      11%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·83.4 mph·— whiff
  • T. Melton
    28 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      36%·86.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·90.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      18%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·76.6 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      4%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Vest
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      47%·88.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      29%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Holton
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FC
      40%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      40%·91.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      10%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

9

2

Runs

4

1

Errors

1

Current series

DET wins series 5-2

Apr 17KCKC1@DETDET6
Apr 18KCKC3@DETDET7
Apr 19KCKC1@DETDET3
Apr 20KCKC4@DETDET3
Aug 22KCKC5@DETDET7
Aug 23KCKC2@DETDET4today
Aug 24KCKC10@DETDET8

Season series

DET leads series 7-2

Apr 17KCKC1@DETDET6
Apr 18KCKC3@DETDET7
Apr 19KCKC1@DETDET3
Apr 20KCKC4@DETDET3
May 31DETDET7@KCKC5
May 31DETDET0@KCKC1
Jun 1DETDET1@KCKC0
Aug 22KCKC5@DETDET7
Aug 23KCKC2@DETDET4today
Aug 24KCKC10@DETDET8
Aug 30DETDET5@KCKC3
Aug 30DETDET1@KCKC3
Aug 31DETDET5@KCKC0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 4th Inning

KCKC
B. Witt Jr.

B. Witt Jr.

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

DETDET
A. Ibanez

A. Ibanez

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

C. Paddack

C. Paddack

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

DET beat KC 4-2.

Win probability

DET vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 4th Inning · 1-1
+15pp→ 51% WP

Pasquantino · doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.

DETBottom 4th Inning · 1-2
+14pp→ 72% WP

Torkelson · homered to left center (408 feet).

DETBottom 7th Inning · 2-3
+12pp→ 82% WP

McKinstry · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0001010002
DET00111001—4

Period scoring

KC won 1 · DET won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Rogers 1

1
1

Inn 4

Pasquantino 1

Torkelson 1

0
1

Inn 5

Rogers 1

1
0

Inn 6

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

KC
DET

Play-by-play · 505 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  2. T9

    India flied out to center.

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

    +0.8pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  5. T9

    Will Vest pitches to Jonathan India

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  6. T9

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  7. T9

    Frazier grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

    +2pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  12. T9

    Will Vest pitches to Adam Frazier

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  13. T9

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  14. T9

    Perez struck out swinging.

    · ·

    KC 2·DET 4

    +3pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  21. T9

    Will Vest pitches to Salvador Perez

    · ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  22. T9

    Pérez in right field.

    ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  23. T9

    Ibáñez at third base.

    KC 2·DET 4

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    KC 2·DET 4

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    KC 2·DET 4

  26. B8

    · ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  27. B8

    Greene grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  28. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 2·DET 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 2·DET 4

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

DET

Home

2

Runs

4

8

Hits

9

1

Errors

1

12

TB

16

1

HR

2

2

BB

2

5

K

6

13

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

DET vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.6± 3.5low
  • Noah CameronKC
    5.3± 2.5low
  • Michael WachaKC
    4.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Jac CaglianoneKC
    1.4± 1.3high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.3± 1.6high
  • Gleyber TorresDET
    1.3± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    2.8± 4.4high
  • Jac CaglianoneKC
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Gleyber TorresDET
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.2± 1.8high
  • Kerry CarpenterDET
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Gleyber TorresDET
    0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Michael WachaKC
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.8± 2.6low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.7± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.2%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    56.6%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.8%

    P(DET win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.2%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.