Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 23, 2025

FINAL+2DET

66-64

DET

78-53

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

37,709 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.5%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
56.6%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.8%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.5%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

131

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Troy MeltonDET
5.7± 2.4low
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 3.3high
Michael WachaKC
4.7± 2.0high

Hits

Max ClarkDET
1.5± 1.7low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.3± 1.8low
Colt KeithDET
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Max ClarkDET
2.7± 3.5low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.6± 4.3low
Salvador PerezKC
1.9± 1.5high

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.0± 2.2low
Luke MaileKC
1.0± 1.6low
Gleyber TorresDET
0.9± 1.7high

Earned runs

Noah CameronKC
3.0± 2.7high
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.3high
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

DET

.711

OPS

.720

▶

.731

.313

OBP

.318

▶

.319

4.17

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.54

4.85

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.56

1.43

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.21

7.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

KC 2 · DET 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	2
DET	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. YastrzemskiLF	.230	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.298	4	2	3	1	1	0	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.263	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. Garcia3B	.298	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. PerezDH	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Frazier2B	.289	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. India2B	.235	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
R. GrichukDH	.255	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. IsbelCF	.265	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. Loftin3B	.204	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RaveRF	.199	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	8	2	1	2	5

Player

.230

.298

.263

.298

.247

.289

.235

.255

.265

.204

.199

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WachaSP	6.0	8	3	3	1	4	108
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
S. LongRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	24
Team	8.0	9	4	4	2	6	144

Player

M. WachaSP

6.0

108

T. ClarkeRP

1.0

S. LongRP

1.0

Team

8.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Keith3B	.261	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Torres2B	.262	2	0	1	0	0	2	1
K. CarpenterRF	.259	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Torkelson1B	.244	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.263	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. DinglerC	.268	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Z. McKinstry2B	.265	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. BaezSS	.268	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. RogersC	.182	3	0	2	2	0	0	0
A. Ibanez2B	.258	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
W. PerezRF	.264	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	4	9	4	2	2	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PaddackSP	5.0	5	1	1	1	1	62
T. MeltonSP	1.1	2	1	1	1	1	28
T. HoltonRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	10
W. VestRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17
Team	9.0	8	2	2	2	5	117

Team

DET

—

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.