Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 23, 2025

FINAL+4SD

LAD

73-57

74-56

Petco Park · San Diego, California

46,326 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.3%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
55.6%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.9%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.4%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 103 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.5± 2.8medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high
Kris BubicLAD
5.7± 3.6low

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.5± 0.9high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.4± 1.1high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.4± 2.3high
Jackson MerrillSD
2.2± 1.9high
Teoscar HernandezLAD
2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.4high
Andy PagesLAD
0.7± 1.2high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high
Kris BubicLAD
2.6± 2.5low
Roki SasakiLAD
2.6± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

.770

OPS

◀

.720

.696

.339

OBP

◀

.318

.312

5.03

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.23

3.71

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.15

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.32

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

LAD 1 · SD 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
SD	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. BettsSS	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. SmithC	.297	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Freeman1B	.301	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. HernándezLF	.249	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. CallLF	.265	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. PagesCF	.271	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Rojas2B	.257	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Kennedy1B	.059	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Freeland2B	.241	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.184	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		29	1	2	1	1	0	7

Player

.280

.244

.297

.301

.249

.265

.271

.257

.059

.241

.184

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GlasnowSP	4.0	2	3	3	4	3	83
B. CaspariusRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
J. WrobleskiSP	3.0	1	2	2	2	2	48
Team	8.0	3	5	5	6	5	137

Player

T. GlasnowSP

4.0

B. CaspariusRP

1.0

J. WrobleskiSP

3.0

Team

8.0

137

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.266	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
L. Arraez2B	.287	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Machado3B	.292	2	2	0	0	0	2	0
R. O'HearnRF	.275	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
X. BogaertsSS	.264	3	1	1	2	0	1	1
G. Sheets1B	.253	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. LaureanoLF	.338	2	0	1	2	0	1	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.238	2	0	0	1	0	0	2
F. FerminC	.268	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. JohnsonRF	.308	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		26	5	3	5	0	6	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. CortesSP	6.0	1	0	0	0	3	81
J. AdamRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
J. EstradaRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	14
A. MorejonRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	15
Team	9.0	2	1	1	0	7	123

Team

LAD

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.