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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4SD
LAD

LAD

73-57

1
5
SD

SD

74-56

Petco Park · San Diego, California
46,326 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

LAD 1 · SD 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0000000101
SD000300025

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 23, 25sim 96
    72
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 95
    124
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 95
    191
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 95
    181
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 94
    161
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 94
    198
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 23·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Alex Freeland

Alex Freeland

2B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Ramon Laureano

Ramon Laureano

LF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD73-57
1
5
SD74-56
LAD73-57·SD74-56
LAD

LAD

73-57

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-44000001
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-44000000
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-33000001
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-33000000
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-33000002
A. CallA. Call★LF
0-22000001
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-33000000
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-22010000
SPRINT26.123
B. KennedyB. Kennedy★1B
0-33000001
A. FreelandA. Freeland2B
1-11111100
SPRINT26.941
M. ConfortoM. ConfortoRF
0-11000001
Team2-2929121107
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. GlasnowT. Glasnow★SP
4.0233430
B. CaspariusB. CaspariusRP
1.0000000
J. WrobleskiJ. WrobleskiSP
3.0122220
Team8.0355650
SD

SD

74-56

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
0-22100021
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-44000000
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-22200020
SPRINT24.32
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-44110001
SPRINT26.735
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-33112011
SPRINT27.148
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-33000000
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-22012010
SPRINT2872
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-22001002
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-33000000
B. JohnsonB. JohnsonRF
0-11000000
Team3-2626535065
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CortesN. Cortes★SP
6.0100030
J. AdamJ. AdamRP
1.0000010
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
0.2111011
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.1000020
Team9.0211071

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SD

  • J. Estrada
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      52%·97.7 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      28%·87.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      20%·84.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

3

1

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Jun 10LADLAD8@SDSD7
Jun 11LADLAD1@SDSD11
Jun 11LADLAD5@SDSD2
Aug 23LADLAD1@SDSD2
Aug 24LADLAD1@SDSD5today
Aug 24LADLAD8@SDSD2

Season series

LAD lead series 8-4

Jun 10LADLAD8@SDSD7
Jun 11LADLAD1@SDSD11
Jun 11LADLAD5@SDSD2
Jun 17SDSD3@LADLAD6
Jun 18SDSD6@LADLAD8
Jun 19SDSD3@LADLAD4
Jun 20SDSD5@LADLAD3
Aug 16SDSD2@LADLAD3
Aug 17SDSD0@LADLAD6
Aug 17SDSD4@LADLAD5
Aug 23LADLAD1@SDSD2
Aug 24LADLAD1@SDSD5today
Aug 24LADLAD8@SDSD2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 4th Inning

LADLAD
A. Freeland

A. Freeland

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

SDSD
R. Laureano

R. Laureano

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

N. Cortes

N. Cortes

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H

How it ended

SD beat LAD 5-1. Laureano's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

SD vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 4th Inning · 0-2
+19pp→ 81% WP

Laureano · singled to right, Machado scored and O'Hearn scored, Bogaerts to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0000000101
SD00030002—5

Period scoring

LAD won 0 · SD won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

Laureano 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
2

Inn 8

Freeland 1

Bogaerts 2

0

Inn 9

LAD
SD

Play-by-play · 496 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  2. T9

    Betts grounded out to second.

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  6. T9

    Adrian Morejon pitches to Mookie Betts

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  7. T9

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  8. T9

    Ohtani flied out to right.

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

    +0.5pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  13. T9

    Adrian Morejon pitches to Shohei Ohtani

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  14. T9

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  15. T9

    Kennedy struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

    +0.8pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  20. T9

    Adrian Morejon pitches to Buddy Kennedy

    ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    LAD 1·SD 5

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    LAD 1·SD 5

  23. B8

    · ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  24. B8

    Johnson grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  25. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  26. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 1·SD 5

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

SD

Home

1

Runs

5

2

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

5

TB

4

1

HR

0

0

BB

6

7

K

5

2

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SD vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 0.9high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    1.7± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    55.6%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.9%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.4%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.