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FINAL+4CHW
MIN

MIN

59-70

3
7
CHW

CHW

46-83

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
16,998 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

MIN 3 · CHW 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIN +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0101001003
CHW060000017

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 23·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off Minnesota Twins, 7–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Kody Clemens

Kody Clemens

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Colson Montgomery

Colson Montgomery

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN59-70
3
7
CHW46-83
MIN59-70·CHW46-83
MIN

MIN

59-70

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-44000002
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
0-33000010
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.688
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-44111100
SPRINT2622
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
1-33010011
SPRINT26.326
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44010001
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
2-44121100
SPRINT27.457
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-44111103
SPRINT27.251
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
0-11000001
A. MartinA. MartinLF
0-11000000
Team7-3232373328
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. AbelM. Abel★SP
3.0766221
T. HatchT. HatchRP
5.0311051
Team8.01077272
CHW

CHW

46-83

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. TeelK. Teel★C
0-33100010
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
2-33121011
SPRINT28.381
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
2-44124101
SPRINT26.326
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
0-44000001
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
2-44120001
SPRINT26.632
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
2-44221101
SPRINT2993
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
1-44010001
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-33111000
SPRINT2744
M. TaylorM. Taylor★RF
0-33000001
Team10-32327107227
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MartinD. Martin★SP
5.0522162
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
3.0211001
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.0000120
Team9.0733283

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • M. Abel
    63 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      35%·96.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      27%·82.9 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·84.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Hatch
    54 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      30%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·87.9 mph·11% whiff
    • FC
      20%·90.3 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      13%·84.9 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      9%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·81.3 mph·0% whiff

CHW

  • D. Martin
    93 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      29%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·90.0 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.9 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·77.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Alexander
    34 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      32%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      26%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    16 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      50%·88.2 mph·67% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

10

3

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Mar 31MINMIN0@CHWCHW9
Apr 1MINMIN8@CHWCHW3
Apr 2MINMIN6@CHWCHW1
Aug 22MINMIN9@CHWCHW7
Aug 23MINMIN3@CHWCHW7today
Aug 24MINMIN0@CHWCHW8

Season series

MIN leads series 5-3

Mar 31MINMIN0@CHWCHW9
Apr 1MINMIN8@CHWCHW3
Apr 2MINMIN6@CHWCHW1
Apr 22CHWCHW2@MINMIN4
Apr 23CHWCHW3@MINMIN6
Apr 24CHWCHW3@MINMIN0
Aug 22MINMIN9@CHWCHW7
Aug 23MINMIN3@CHWCHW7today
Aug 24MINMIN0@CHWCHW8
Sep 1CHWCHW6@MINMIN5
Sep 2CHWCHW12@MINMIN3
Sep 3CHWCHW4@MINMIN3
Sep 4CHWCHW11@MINMIN8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

MINMIN
K. Clemens

K. Clemens

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

T. Hatch

T. Hatch

RP

Top reliever

5.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 3 H

CHWCHW
C. Montgomery

C. Montgomery

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

D. Martin

D. Martin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHW beat MIN 7-3. Montgomery's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

CHW vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 50% WP

Clemens · homered to right center (374 feet).

CHWBottom 2nd Inning · 1-1
+14pp→ 67% WP

Meidroth · singled to center, Benintendi scored, Robert Jr. to third.

CHWBottom 2nd Inning · 1-6
+20pp→ 93% WP

Montgomery · homered to right center (412 feet), Meidroth scored, Teel scored and Vargas scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0101001003
CHW06000001—7

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · CHW won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
6

Inn 2

Clemens 1

Montgomery 4

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Wallner 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Lewis 1

0
1

Inn 8

Jr. 1

0

Inn 9

MIN
CHW

Play-by-play · 512 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  2. T9

    Lewis struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  7. T9

    Jordan Leasure pitches to Royce Lewis

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  8. T9

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  9. T9

    Clemens grounded out to first, Jeffers to second.

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

    +0.8pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  14. T9

    Jordan Leasure pitches to Kody Clemens

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  15. T9

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  16. T9

    Lee struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

    +2pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  20. T9

    Jordan Leasure pitches to Brooks Lee

    · ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  21. T9

    ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  22. T9

    Jeffers walked.

    ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

    −2pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  28. T9

    Jordan Leasure pitches to Ryan Jeffers

    ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  29. T9

    Leasure relieved Alexander

    ·

    MIN 3·CHW 7

  30. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIN 3·CHW 7

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

3

Runs

7

7

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

16

TB

17

3

HR

2

2

BB

2

8

K

7

11

LOB

11

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 24, 25sim 95
    90
    4(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 92
    99
    4(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 91
    116
    20(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 90
    156
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 89
    235
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 89
    307
    20(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

CHW vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.3low
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Kody ClemensMIN
    1.9± 2.1high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Andrew BenintendiCHW
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium
  • Edgar QueroCHW
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.8± 3.0low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.9%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    48.9%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.5%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.5%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.