Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 23, 2025

FINAL+4CHW

MIN

59-70

CHW

46-83

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

16,998 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
48.9%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.5%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.6%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHW vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 119 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.0high
Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Joe RyanMIN
5.7± 2.6high

Hits

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
1.1± 0.7high
Royce LewisMIN
1.1± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.4± 2.6high
Royce LewisMIN
2.0± 1.8high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.7± 1.7high

RBIs

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
0.6± 0.8high
Miguel VargasCHW
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.7± 3.4low
Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
Davis MartinCHW
3.1± 3.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

CHW

.726

OPS

.720

.722

.318

OBP

.318

.316

4.68

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

4.65

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.08

1.39

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.30

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

MIN 3 · CHW 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIN +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	3
CHW	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	1	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Minnesota TwinsChicago White Sox

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.269	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. LarnachLF	.242	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. Keaschall2B	.337	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. WallnerRF	.210	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
R. JeffersC	.260	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. Lee3B	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. Clemens1B	.217	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
R. Lewis3B	.233	4	1	1	1	1	0	3
J. OutmanCF	.190	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. MartinRF	.241	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	7	3	3	2	8

Player

.269

.242

.337

.210

.260

.250

.217

.233

.190

.241

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AbelSP	3.0	7	6	6	2	2	63
T. HatchRP	5.0	3	1	1	0	5	54
Team	8.0	10	7	7	2	7	117

Player

M. AbelSP

3.0

T. HatchRP

5.0

Team

8.0

117

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. TeelC	.271	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. Vargas3B	.233	3	1	2	1	0	1	1
C. MontgomerySS	.229	4	1	2	4	1	0	1
L. Sosa2B	.270	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. BenintendiDH	.229	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
L. Robert Jr.CF	.225	4	2	2	1	1	0	1
B. BaldwinLF	.240	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Meidroth2B	.255	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
M. TaylorRF	.212	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	7	10	7	2	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MartinSP	5.0	5	2	2	1	6	93
T. AlexanderRP	3.0	2	1	1	0	0	34
J. LeasureRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	16
Team	9.0	7	3	3	2	8	143

Team

MIN

CHW

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CHW vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.