New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 23, 2025

FINAL+7NYM

NYM

69-60

ATL

58-71

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

39,738 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.0%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
52.5%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.5%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Christian ScottNYM
5.9± 1.6medium

Hits

Bo BichetteNYM
1.1± 1.1high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.0± 0.9high
Matt OlsonATL
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.3± 2.2high
Francisco LindorNYM
2.0± 3.5high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high
Francisco LindorNYM
0.7± 1.9high
Austin RileyATL
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Tyler MahleATL
3.0± 2.4medium
Kodai SengaNYM
2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

ATL

.684

OPS

.720

▶

.733

.303

OBP

.318

▶

.315

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.89

4.09

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.66

1.29

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.24

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 9 · ATL 2 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	0	2	9
ATL	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Team pages

New York MetsAtlanta Braves

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. LindorSS	.265	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. SotoLF	.249	3	2	0	0	0	2	0
P. Alonso1B	.262	4	1	1	2	1	1	0
M. Vientos1B	.238	5	2	3	2	2	0	1
J. McNeil2B	.261	5	2	2	4	2	0	0
S. MarteRF	.289	3	1	3	1	1	1	0
B. Baty3B	.246	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
T. TaylorLF	.206	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
H. SengerC	.172	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. MauricioSS	.228	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.234	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	9	11	9	6	6	5

Player

.265

.249

.262

.238

.261

.289

.246

.206

.172

.228

.234

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HolmesSP	6.1	3	2	2	2	4	94
G. SotoRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	9
T. RogersRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
E. DiazRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	28
Team	9.0	5	2	2	3	8	148

Player

6.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

148

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ProfarLF	.255	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Olson1B	.268	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.301	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. Harris IICF	.253	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. OzunaDH	.232	3	0	0	1	0	0	3
D. BaldwinC	.277	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
O. Albies2B	.229	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Alvarez Jr.SS	.261	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
V. BrujanSS	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. MurphyC	.204	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.224	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	5	2	0	3	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. QuantrillRP	4.2	5	3	3	5	3	92
T. KinleyRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	14
D. LeeRP	0.2	3	4	4	1	1	25
A. BummerRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	14
A. CoxRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	27
Team	9.0	11	9	9	6	5	172

Team

NYM

ATL

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.