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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+11CHC
CHC

CHC

75-55

12
1
LAA

LAA

61-68

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
44,355 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 12 · LAA 1 (by 11)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC00240420012
LAA0000001001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 5, 25sim 97
    229
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 96
    147
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 94
    163
    26(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 94
    213
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 94
    194
    3(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 94
    196
    3(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 23·Final/SeriesCHC win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 12–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Reese McGuire

Reese McGuire

C

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

5

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Niko Kavadas

Niko Kavadas

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC75-55
12
1
LAA61-68
CHC75-55·LAA61-68
CHC

CHC

75-55

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
2-55221001
SPRINT25.716
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
3-55235200
SPRINT26.123
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-55010002
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-44010000
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-22100010
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-33210010
SPRINT28.278
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
2-55120001
SPRINT27.969
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-44111001
R. McGuireR. McGuire★C
1-22215111
M. ShawM. ShawRF
0-11000000
O. CaissieO. CaissieRF
1-22110000
J. TurnerJ. Turner1B
1-11010000
Team14-3939121412336
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HortonC. Horton★SP
6.0300170
B. BrownB. BrownRP
3.0211031
Team9.05111101
LAA

LAA

61-68

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-22000001
SPRINT27.148
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-22000000
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-33000003
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-44000001
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-44000001
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
2-44121100
SPRINT27.867
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-33010001
SPRINT27.148
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
1-33010001
SPRINT27.251
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-33000000
O. PerazaO. Peraza2B
0-22000002
SPRINT28.278
N. KavadasN. Kavadas1B
1-11010010
C. MooreC. Moore2B
0-11000000
Team5-32321511110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
VV. Mederos★SP
4.0466242
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
1.0100010
C. FulmerC. FulmerRP
1.1766101
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
0.2000010
O. PerazaO. Peraza2B
2.0200000
SPRINT28.278
Team9.0141212363

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

LAA

  • R. Zeferjahn
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • ST
      50%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·97.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SV
      8%·84.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

Hits

5

12

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

CHC win series 3-0

Aug 23CHCCHC3@LAALAA2
Aug 24CHCCHC12@LAALAA1today
Aug 24CHCCHC4@LAALAA3

Season series

CHC lead series 2-0

Aug 23CHCCHC3@LAALAA2
Aug 24CHCCHC12@LAALAA1today
Aug 24CHCCHC4@LAALAA3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 3rd Inning

CHCCHC
R. McGuire

R. McGuire

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

C. Horton

C. Horton

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

LAALAA
N. Kavadas

N. Kavadas

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

V. Mederos

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHC beat LAA 12-1. Tucker's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+18pp→ 76% WP

Tucker · homered to right (399 feet), Busch scored.

CHCTop 4th Inning · 6-0
+17pp→ 96% WP

McGuire · homered to center (389 feet), Happ scored, Hoerner scored and Swanson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC00240420012
LAA0000001001

Period scoring

CHC won 4 · LAA won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Tucker 2

4
0

Inn 4

McGuire 4

0
0

Inn 5

4
0

Inn 6

Tucker 3

2
1

Inn 7

Swanson 1

Adell 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CHC
LAA

Play-by-play · 543 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  3. B9

    Adell flied out to center.

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  11. B9

    Ben Brown pitches to Jo Adell

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  12. B9

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  13. B9

    Moncada grounded out to first.

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  17. B9

    Ben Brown pitches to Yoan Moncada

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  18. B9

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  19. B9

    Ward grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  23. B9

    Ben Brown pitches to Taylor Ward

    ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  26. T9

    · ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  27. T9

    Swanson grounded into double play, third to second to first, Castro out at second.

    · ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 12·LAA 1

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

12

Runs

1

14

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

27

TB

8

3

HR

1

3

BB

1

6

K

10

15

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

LAA vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Carson KellyCHC
    0.9± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.2%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    44.0%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    39.5%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.1%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.