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Live · 4
  • MLBTop 4
    ATL 2@CIN 2
    -2.1pphigh
  • MLBMid 4
    CHC 0@STL 0
    -5.6pphigh
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    IND 8@POR 2
    -15.4ppmedium
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    +61.1pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9ARI
CIN

CIN

67-63

1
10
ARI

ARI

64-66

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
36,567 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

CIN 1 · ARI 10 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0000000101
ARI3022100210

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-47
62%Last 30 · 331-206
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 23·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off Cincinnati Reds, 10–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Ke'Bryan Hayes

Ke'Bryan Hayes

3B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Blaze Alexander

Blaze Alexander

3B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN67-63
1
10
ARI64-66
CIN67-63·ARI64-66
CIN

CIN

67-63

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-33000011
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
0-33000011
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
2-44020000
SPRINT2872
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
0-44000000
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
2-44021002
SPRINT27.354
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-44000001
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
2-33020010
SPRINT26.941
J. TrevinoJ. Trevino★C
0-33000001
S. EspinalS. Espinal★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT26.632
W. BensonW. BensonRF
0-11000000
Team7-3333171036
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AbbottA. Abbott★SP
4.0876062
Z. MaxwellZ. MaxwellUN
2.0211051
B. SuterB. SuterRP
2.0422030
Team8.0141090143
ARI

ARI

64-66

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
2-55121002
SPRINT26.225
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
2-55223101
SPRINT26.838
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-55110003
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
2-44223100
SPRINT25.818
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
2-44121002
SPRINT26.428
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
3-44232101
SPRINT28.175
T. LocklearT. Locklear★1B
0-44000003
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
1-44110002
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-44010000
Team14-39391014103014
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. BeeksJ. Beeks★RP
1.0000010
N. CrismattN. CrismattSP
4.0400340
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
4.0311010
Team9.0711360

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

14

1

Runs

10

1

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Aug 23CINCIN5@ARIARI6
Aug 24CINCIN1@ARIARI10today
Aug 24CINCIN6@ARIARI1

Season series

CIN leads series 3-2

Jun 6ARIARI3@CINCIN4
Jun 7ARIARI1@CINCIN13
Jun 8ARIARI2@CINCIN4
Aug 23CINCIN5@ARIARI6
Aug 24CINCIN1@ARIARI10today
Aug 24CINCIN6@ARIARI1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CINCIN
K. Hayes

K. Hayes

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

A. Abbott

A. Abbott

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 6 ER · 8 H

ARIARI
B. Alexander

B. Alexander

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

N. Crismatt

N. Crismatt

SP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ARI beat CIN 10-1.

Win probability

ARI vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARIBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 71% WP

Moreno · doubled to center, Gurriel Jr. scored.

ARIBottom 3rd Inning · 0-5
+8pp→ 93% WP

Gurriel Jr. · homered to left center (392 feet), Perdomo scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0000000101
ARI30221002—10

Period scoring

CIN won 0 · ARI won 5

0
3

Inn 1

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Jr. 2

0
2

Inn 4

Perdomo 2

0
1

Inn 5

Alexander 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
2

Inn 8

Hays 1

Marte 1

0

Inn 9

CIN
ARI

Play-by-play · 572 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  2. T9

    Espinal grounded into double play, third to second to first, Hayes out at second.

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  8. T9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Santiago Espinal

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  9. T9

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  10. T9

    Benson flied out to shortstop.

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  12. T9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Will Benson

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  13. T9

    ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  14. T9

    Hayes singled to left.

    ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  16. T9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Ke'Bryan Hayes

    ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  17. T9

    Del Castillo as designated hitter.

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  18. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  19. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  20. B8

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  21. B8

    Carroll struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  22. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  23. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  24. B8

    Perdomo to second, Del Castillo to third on wild pitch by Suter.

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  25. B8

    Perdomo to second on wild pitch by Suter, Del Castillo to third on wild pitch by Suter.

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  26. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  29. B8

    Brent Suter pitches to Corbin Carroll

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

  30. B8

    · ·

    CIN 1·ARI 10

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

1

Runs

10

7

Hits

14

1

Errors

0

9

TB

28

0

HR

3

3

BB

0

6

K

14

16

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Will BensonCIN · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

ARI vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    4.5± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    48.7%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.6%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.8%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 23, 25sim 98
    175
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 97
    176
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 96
    253
    21(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 96
    64
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    108
    24(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    106
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs