Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 23, 2025

FINAL+9ARI

CIN

67-63

110

ARI

64-66

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

36,567 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
48.7%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.6%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.9%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 105 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 2.5high
Brady SingerCIN
5.1± 1.1high

Hits

James McCannARI
1.6± 1.1high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.2± 1.2high
Ryan WaldschmidtARI
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.6± 2.4high
Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.2± 1.3high
Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.4high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Rhett LowderCIN
2.7± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

ARI

.707

OPS

.720

.706

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.314

4.17

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.54

4.43

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.20

1.41

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.30

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

6.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

CIN 1 · ARI 10 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
ARI	3	0	2	2	1	0	0	2	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.265	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. MarteRF	.298	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. De La CruzSS	.276	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. AndujarDH	.358	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. HaysLF	.259	4	0	2	1	0	0	2
S. Steer1B	.233	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Hayes3B	.284	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
J. TrevinoC	.249	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Espinal3B	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. BensonRF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. BanfieldC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. McLain2B	.220	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	7	1	0	3	6

Player

.265

.298

.276

.358

.259

.233

.284

.249

.247

.222

.000

.220

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AbbottSP	4.0	8	7	6	0	6	73
Z. MaxwellRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	5	35
B. SuterRP	2.0	4	2	2	0	3	45
Team	8.0	14	10	9	0	14	153

Player

A. AbbottSP

4.0

Z. MaxwellRP

2.0

B. SuterRP

2.0

Team

8.0

153

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.293	5	1	2	1	0	0	2
G. PerdomoSS	.290	5	2	2	3	1	0	1
C. CarrollRF	.253	5	1	1	0	0	0	3
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.251	4	2	2	3	1	0	0
G. MorenoC	.280	4	1	2	1	0	0	2
B. Alexander3B	.242	4	2	3	2	1	0	1
T. Locklear1B	.191	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. McCarthyCF	.210	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
I. Vargas1B	.237	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Del CastilloDH	.243	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	10	14	10	3	0	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BeeksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
N. CrismattSP	4.0	4	0	0	3	4	83
J. WoodfordRP	4.0	3	1	1	0	1	43
Team	9.0	7	1	1	3	6	142

Team

CIN

ARI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.