Golden State Valkyries at Connecticut Sun
GS
10-5
CON
2-14
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
olden State Valkyries visit Connecticut Sun Friday at 7/10 - 7:30 PM EDT. GS arrives on a 4-game win streak (5-3 in their last 8).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
CON
Home
41
FG %
42
Season series
GS leads series 1-0
CON70@GS97GS@CONtodayGS@CONupcomingScouting report
GS @ CON
Tale of the tape
10-5
Record
2-14
#3
Conf rank
#7
+6.7
Pt diff
-11.0
W4
Streak
L6
7-3
Last 10
1-9
81.9
Sched ahead
40.4
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Gabby WilliamsGS17.3± 8.3medium
- Janelle SalaunGS14.0± 5.6medium
- Veronica BurtonGS13.7± 7.4medium
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON10.2± 5.1medium
- Kayla ThorntonGS5.6± 3.4medium
- Kiah StokesGS4.8± 2.2medium
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.4± 2.7medium
- Leila LacanCON5.0± 2.8low
- Saniya RiversCON3.1± 2.2medium
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.6± 1.6medium
- Brittney GrinerCON1.4± 1.6low
- Saniya RiversCON0.9± 0.9medium
Steals
- Leila LacanCON1.7± 1.5low
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.5± 1.0medium
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.3± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
CON
41.0%
FG%
44.5
▶42.4%
36.7%
3PT %
33.3
25.9%
85.1
PPG
85.5
78.1
19.0
Assists / G
18.0
18.6
10.0
Turnovers / G
13.0
13.8