Washington Mystics at Golden State Valkyries
WSH
6-7
GS
10-5
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ashington Mystics visit Golden State Valkyries Saturday at 7/18 - 8:30 PM EDT. WSH is 3-4 in their last 7. GS arrives on a 4-game win streak (5-3 in their last 8).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
GS
Home
44
FG %
41
Season series
Series starts 7/6
GS@WSHupcomingWSH@GStodayWSH@GSupcomingScouting report
WSH @ GS
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
GS -25.3
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
GS
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
6-7
Record
10-5
#5
Conf rank
#3
-4.3
Pt diff
+6.7
W1
Streak
W4
4-6
Last 10
7-3
39.0
Power score
64.3
#10
Power rank
#5
93.2
Sched ahead
81.9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Gabby WilliamsGS17.3± 8.3medium
- Sonia CitronWSH16.4± 10.2low
- Kiki IriafenWSH14.5± 9.3low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.7± 6.2low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.1± 4.2low
- Kayla ThorntonGS5.6± 3.4medium
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.4± 2.7medium
- Sonia CitronWSH3.6± 2.8low
- Alicia FlorezWSH3.4± 3.4low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.6± 1.6medium
- Shakira AustinWSH1.4± 1.4low
- Veronica BurtonGS0.9± 1.8medium
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.5± 1.0medium
- Cecilia ZandalasiniGS1.1± 1.9low
- Kayla ThorntonGS1.1± 1.6medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
GS
44.7%
FG%
44.6
41.0%
30.0%
3PT %
33.4
▶36.7%
81.9
PPG
85.7
▶85.1
18.8
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.0
16.0
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.0