WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

CHI

4-10

PregameTue, 10:00 PM EDT

PHX

4-12

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

WNBATue, Jul 77/7 - 10:00 PM EDTSeriesPHX leads series 1-0

Preview · WNBA

hicago Sky visit Phoenix Mercury Tuesday at 7/7 - 10:00 PM EDT.

The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Season series

PHX leads series 1-0

May 16

CHI83@

PHX91

Jul 8

CHI@

PHXtoday

Aug 4

PHX@

CHIupcoming

Scouting report

CHI @ PHX

7/7 - 10:00 PM EDT

StorylineCHI dropped 4 straight · PHX lost 4 in a row.

Tale of the tape

CHImetricPHX

4-10

Record

4-12

Conf rank

-5.3

Pt diff

-5.0

Streak

1-9

Last 10

2-8

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

FG %

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.8%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Kahleah CopperPHX
19.6± 10.1medium
Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low
Skylar DigginsCHI
15.8± 7.2low

Rebounds

Natasha MackPHX
8.1± 3.4medium
Kamilla CardosoCHI
7.6± 4.5medium
Alyssa ThomasPHX
6.9± 3.2medium

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.3± 2.7medium
Skylar DigginsCHI
4.3± 3.6low
Natasha CloudCHI
4.2± 3.0low

Blocks

Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.7± 2.2medium
Natasha MackPHX
1.4± 1.2medium
Elizabeth WilliamsCHI
1.3± 1.3low

Steals

Monique Akoa MakaniPHX
1.6± 1.0low
Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.5± 1.4medium
Aicha CoulibalyCHI
1.1± 1.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

CHI

league avg

PHX

42.3%

FG%

44.5

42.3%

31.5%

3PT %

33.3

▶

32.3%

83.1

PPG

◀

85.5

81.8

19.4

Assists / G

◀

18.0

18.9

12.5

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

13.4

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Chicago Sky at Phoenix Mercury

3 sub-models, blended.

PHX vs CHI.

Team rate stats vs league