New York Liberty at Los Angeles Sparks
NY
11-5
LA
7-8
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ew York Liberty visit Los Angeles Sparks Tuesday at 7/28 - 10:00 PM EDT. NY is rolling — 6-1 in their last 7. LA is 3-5 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
LA
Home
46
FG %
45
Season series
Series starts 6/21
NY@LAupcomingNY@LAtodayLA@NYupcomingScouting report
NY @ LA
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
NY -45.8
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
NY
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
11-5
Record
7-8
#2
Conf rank
#6
+6.0
Pt diff
-3.2
L1
Streak
L2
8-2
Last 10
5-5
84.0
Power score
38.2
#2
Power rank
#10
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.1%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.4± 14.0low
- Breanna StewartNY18.7± 8.0medium
- Nneka OgwumikeLA15.0± 5.7medium
Rebounds
- Jonquel JonesNY9.5± 4.0medium
- Nneka OgwumikeLA9.3± 4.8medium
- Breanna StewartNY8.6± 2.3medium
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA6.4± 3.8low
- Erica WheelerLA4.6± 2.5medium
- Pauline AstierNY4.0± 1.8medium
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.5± 0.8medium
- Jonquel JonesNY1.5± 1.4medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.3± 2.4medium
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.8± 1.5medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.5± 1.5medium
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.6medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
LA
46.1%
FG%
44.6
45.7%
34.8%
3PT %
33.4
31.2%
88.6
PPG
85.7
87.7
21.0
Assists / G
18.0
19.7
14.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.9