Las Vegas Aces at Portland Fire
LV
11-4
POR
8-9
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
as Vegas Aces visit Portland Fire Thursday at 7/9 - 10:00 PM EDT. LV is rolling — 7-2 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
POR
Home
48
FG %
45
Season series
LV leads series 1-0
LV105@POR89LV@PORtodayPOR@LVupcomingScouting report
LV @ POR
Tale of the tape
11-4
Record
8-9
#2
Conf rank
#5
+3.4
Pt diff
-5.9
W1
Streak
W1
7-3
Last 10
4-6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
POR vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV26.3± 6.1medium
- Jackie YoungLV16.3± 10.2medium
- Chennedy CarterLV14.2± 12.2low
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV10.0± 4.7medium
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.4± 2.9medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.2± 3.4medium
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV7.2± 2.5medium
- Jackie YoungLV6.9± 3.1medium
- Carla LeitePOR5.9± 3.6medium
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV2.2± 2.1medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.9± 0.9medium
- Cheyenne Parker-TyusLV0.9± 1.0low
Steals
- A'ja WilsonLV1.6± 1.6medium
- Bridget CarletonPOR1.4± 1.2medium
- Chelsea GrayLV1.3± 1.0medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
POR
48.3%
FG%
44.5
44.6%
35.6%
3PT %
33.3
34.1%
89.9
PPG
85.5
82.2
23.5
Assists / G
18.0
19.8
12.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.8