WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

PHX

4-12

PregameMon, 9:00 PM EDT

MIN

12-3

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

WNBAMon, Jul 137/13 - 9:00 PM EDTSeriesMIN leads series 2-0

Preview · WNBA

hoenix Mercury visit Minnesota Lynx Monday at 7/13 - 9:00 PM EDT. MIN is rolling — 7-1 in their last 8.

The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

FG %

Season series

MIN leads series 2-0

May 13

MIN88@

PHX84

Jun 2

MIN111@

PHX77

Jul 14

PHX@

MINtoday

Scouting report

PHX @ MIN

7/13 - 9:00 PM EDT

StorylinePHX dropped 4 straight.

Tale of the tape

PHXmetricMIN

4-12

Record

12-3

Conf rank

-5.0

Pt diff

+13.4

Streak

2-8

Last 10

9-1

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.9%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Olivia MilesMIN
19.6± 7.7medium
Kahleah CopperPHX
19.6± 10.1medium
Natasha HowardMIN
17.9± 6.5medium

Rebounds

Natasha MackPHX
8.1± 3.4medium
Natasha HowardMIN
7.4± 3.6medium
Alyssa ThomasPHX
6.9± 3.2medium

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.3± 2.7medium
Olivia MilesMIN
5.6± 2.8medium
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.1± 2.1medium

Blocks

Nia CoffeyMIN
1.4± 1.4medium
Natasha MackPHX
1.4± 1.2medium
Liatu KingMIN
0.8± 1.6low

Steals

Natasha HowardMIN
2.0± 1.7medium
Kayla McBrideMIN
1.8± 1.2medium
Monique Akoa MakaniPHX
1.6± 1.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

PHX

league avg

MIN

42.3%

FG%

44.5

▶

51.1%

32.3%

3PT %

33.3

▶

39.6%

81.8

PPG

85.5

▶

93.1

18.9

Assists / G

18.0

▶

22.1

13.4

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

14.1

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs PHX.

Team rate stats vs league