Los Angeles Sparks at Atlanta Dream
LA
7-8
ATL
10-4
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks visit Atlanta Dream Monday at 7/13 - 7:00 PM EDT. LA is 4-5 in their last 9. ATL is rolling — 6-2 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
45
FG %
43
Season series
Series starts 7/13
LA@ATLtodayATL@LAupcomingATL@LAupcomingScouting report
LA @ ATL
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
ATL -34.9
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
ATL
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
7-8
Record
10-4
#6
Conf rank
#2
-3.2
Pt diff
+6.5
L2
Streak
W2
5-5
Last 10
7-3
43.6
Power score
78.5
#8
Power rank
#3
68.1
Sched ahead
57.9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.4± 14.0low
- Rhyne HowardATL18.1± 9.3medium
- Allisha GrayATL17.9± 5.6medium
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL12.0± 4.0medium
- Nneka OgwumikeLA9.3± 4.8medium
- Dearica HambyLA7.6± 2.8medium
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL6.8± 3.5medium
- Kelsey PlumLA6.4± 3.8low
- Erica WheelerLA4.6± 2.5medium
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.5± 0.8medium
- Rae BurrellLA0.9± 1.4medium
- Rhyne HowardATL0.8± 1.2medium
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.9± 2.2medium
- Jordin CanadaATL1.9± 1.8medium
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.8± 1.5medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
ATL
45.7%
FG%
44.5
43.5%
31.2%
3PT %
33.3
▶32.9%
87.7
PPG
85.5
87.1
19.7
Assists / G
18.0
19.8
14.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9