Phoenix Mercury at Las Vegas Aces
PHX
4-12
LV
11-4
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
hoenix Mercury visit Las Vegas Aces Saturday at 7/11 - 6:00 PM EDT. LV is rolling — 7-1 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
LV
Home
42
FG %
48
Season series
Series tied 1-1
PHX99@LV66LV86@PHX76PHX@LVtodayLV@PHXupcomingScouting report
PHX @ LV
Tale of the tape
4-12
Record
11-4
#7
Conf rank
#2
-5.0
Pt diff
+3.4
L4
Streak
W1
2-8
Last 10
7-3
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV26.3± 6.1medium
- Kahleah CopperPHX19.6± 10.1medium
- Jackie YoungLV16.3± 10.2medium
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV10.0± 4.7medium
- Natasha MackPHX8.1± 3.4medium
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.4± 2.9medium
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.3± 2.7medium
- Chelsea GrayLV7.2± 2.5medium
- Jackie YoungLV6.9± 3.1medium
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV2.2± 2.1medium
- Natasha MackPHX1.4± 1.2medium
- Cheyenne Parker-TyusLV0.9± 1.0low
Steals
- A'ja WilsonLV1.6± 1.6medium
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX1.6± 1.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.5± 1.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
LV
42.3%
FG%
44.5
▶48.3%
32.3%
3PT %
33.3
▶35.6%
81.8
PPG
85.5
▶89.9
18.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.5
13.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.7