New York Liberty at Toronto Tempo
NY
11-4
TOR
7-8
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ew York Liberty visit Toronto Tempo Sunday at 7/12 - 3:00 PM EDT. NY arrives on a 7-game win streak (7-0 in their last 7). TOR has lost 3 straight (3-4 in their last 7).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
46
FG %
44
Season series
NY leads series 1-0
TOR82@NY97NY@TORtodayNY@TORupcomingScouting report
NY @ TOR
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
NY -52.8
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
NY
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
11-4
Record
7-8
#1
Conf rank
#4
+6.6
Pt diff
-2.5
W8
Streak
L3
8-2
Last 10
4-6
94.5
Power score
41.7
#1
Power rank
#9
53.6
Sched ahead
61.0
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TOR vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY18.6± 8.2medium
- Brittney SykesTOR18.1± 10.6medium
- Marina MabreyTOR17.1± 8.5medium
Rebounds
- Jonquel JonesNY9.3± 4.0medium
- Breanna StewartNY8.6± 2.4medium
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR5.2± 2.9low
Assists
- Pauline AstierNY4.0± 1.8medium
- Marina MabreyTOR4.0± 3.0medium
- Sabrina IonescuNY3.4± 3.1low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.5± 1.4medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 2.5medium
- Nyara SaballyTOR1.1± 1.0low
Steals
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR1.8± 2.2low
- Julie AllemandTOR1.6± 1.3low
- Breanna StewartNY1.5± 1.5medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
TOR
46.2%
FG%
44.5
43.5%
35.1%
3PT %
33.3
33.6%
88.9
PPG
85.5
88.8
21.1
Assists / G
18.0
18.9
14.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.7