Connecticut Sun at Indiana Fever
CON
2-14
IND
9-6
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
onnecticut Sun visit Indiana Fever Wednesday at 7/22 - 8:00 PM EDT. IND is 5-3 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
IND
Home
42
FG %
46
Season series
IND leads series 1-0
IND85@CON75CON@INDtodayCON@INDupcomingScouting report
CON @ IND
Tale of the tape
2-15
Record
9-6
#7
Conf rank
#3
-10.6
Pt diff
+4.1
L7
Streak
L1
1-9
Last 10
6-4
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey MitchellIND20.2± 5.2medium
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 8.8medium
- Aliyah BostonIND17.7± 7.4medium
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON10.1± 5.0medium
- Aliyah BostonIND9.0± 3.4medium
- Brittney GrinerCON4.8± 3.0low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.7± 3.2medium
- Leila LacanCON4.8± 2.8low
- Saniya RiversCON3.2± 2.2medium
Blocks
- Brittney GrinerCON1.5± 1.6low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.4± 1.6medium
- Saniya RiversCON0.9± 1.0medium
Steals
- Leila LacanCON1.6± 1.4low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.3± 1.6low
- Aaliyah EdwardsCON1.0± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
IND
42.4%
FG%
44.6
▶46.2%
25.9%
3PT %
33.4
▶34.3%
78.1
PPG
85.7
▶92.2
18.6
Assists / G
18.0
▶20.9
13.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
15.2