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THE ONE Analytics
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WNBA·Model picks

Tonight's
model picks.

WNBA pre-game win probability for every game on tonight's slate, computed from a rolling Elo rating that updates after every final. The MLB version of this model back-tested at 55% on 2,932 games. The methodology page has the receipts.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 62-35
61%Last 30 · 299-189
Receipts →
MLBTop 3
TOR 1@BOS 0
-24.4pphigh
MLBEnd 2
CHW 1@NYY 1
-1.2pphigh
MLBBot 1
SF 1@ATL 1
-2.9ppmedium
MLBBot 4
KC 0@WSH 2
+37.1pplow
MLBTop 2
NYM 0@CIN 4
+45.5pplow
MLBEnd 3
MIA 0@PHI 7
+43.3pplow
WNBA7:42 - 2nd
TOR 28@IND 34
+6.0ppmedium
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Placed RHP Daniel Palencia on the 15-day IL (Jun 16)
MLBTop 3
TOR 1@BOS 0
-24.4pphigh
MLBEnd 2
CHW 1@NYY 1
-1.2pphigh
MLBBot 1
SF 1@ATL 1
-2.9ppmedium
MLBBot 4
KC 0@WSH 2
+37.1pplow
MLBTop 2
NYM 0@CIN 4
+45.5pplow
MLBEnd 3
MIA 0@PHI 7
+43.3pplow
WNBA7:42 - 2nd
TOR 28@IND 34
+6.0ppmedium
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Placed RHP Daniel Palencia on the 15-day IL (Jun 16)

WNBA accuracy · last 30

Recent model grading

See receipts →

Last 30

79.2%

77 games

Tonight · 1 game

Sorted by model edge

Locks ★ first · then edges · then leans · tossups last

Show our work →
IND

71%

Strong

Top edge tonight

★ Lock · Fever ML

Conviction read · gauge spans 0–100%

Bet IND ML↗Bet IND ML↗

Direct to DraftKings or FanDuel · 21+

Edge
The One model★ Lock
● Live
TOR20

TOR

Tempo

8-12

vs68.5%IND

IND★

Fever

37-32

IND26
TOR 31.5%win prob68.5% IND
IND 1539 · TOR 1453Box score→

Power ratings · Elo

Best + worst teams in wnba

Top 5

  1. 1MIN

    Lynx

    53-18

    1666Elo
  2. 2LV

    Aces

    54-23

    1661Elo
  3. 3ATL

    Dream

    43-22

    1614Elo
  4. 4GS

    Valkyries

    42-28

    1586Elo
  5. 5NY

    Liberty

    40-25

    1552Elo

Bottom 5

  1. 1CON

    Sun

    13-56

    1301Elo
  2. 2CHI

    Sky

    15-47

    1335Elo
  3. 3SEA

    Storm

    27-38

    1404Elo
  4. 4WSH

    Mystics

    23-38

    1408Elo
  5. 5PHX

    Mercury

    37-40

    1449Elo

How the model works

One Elo rating per team, updated after every game

Same Elo skeleton for every league: K-factor tuned to the schedule density, league-specific home advantage, off-season regression to the mean. WNBA ratings update after every final score and feed straight into the win-probability column you see above.

Full methodology →