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WNBA·Model picks

Tonight's
model picks.

WNBA pre-game win probability for every game on tonight's slate, computed from a rolling Elo rating that updates after every final. The MLB version of this model back-tested at 55% on 2,932 games. The methodology page has the receipts.

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LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 26 PTS · 10 REB · 10 AST in a win over POR
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Warren (NYY): 6.2 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
TRANSACTION · MLBAstros: Signed free agent SS Braden Shewmake to a minor league contract (Jul 31)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Austin (WSH): 28 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST in a win over DAL
LAST NIGHT · MLBS. Stewart (CIN): 2 H · 1 HR · 4 RBI in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Placed SS J.P (Jul 31)
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER in a win over STL
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Bauers (MIL): 2 H · 1 HR · 3 RBI in a win over LAA
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Selected the contract of RHP Luke Murphy from Rocket City (SL) (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBANets: Signed F Moritz Wagner to a contract (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBAWarriors: Re-signed G De'Anthony Melton to a contract (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBANuggets: Signed F Spencer Jones to a contract (Jul 31)
TONIGHT · WNBALV @ CHI, 8/1 - 1:00 PM EDT — LV -5.5
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 26 PTS · 10 REB · 10 AST in a win over POR
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Warren (NYY): 6.2 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
TRANSACTION · MLBAstros: Signed free agent SS Braden Shewmake to a minor league contract (Jul 31)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Austin (WSH): 28 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST in a win over DAL
LAST NIGHT · MLBS. Stewart (CIN): 2 H · 1 HR · 4 RBI in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Placed SS J.P (Jul 31)
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER in a win over STL
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Bauers (MIL): 2 H · 1 HR · 3 RBI in a win over LAA
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Selected the contract of RHP Luke Murphy from Rocket City (SL) (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBANets: Signed F Moritz Wagner to a contract (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBAWarriors: Re-signed G De'Anthony Melton to a contract (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBANuggets: Signed F Spencer Jones to a contract (Jul 31)
TONIGHT · WNBALV @ CHI, 8/1 - 1:00 PM EDT — LV -5.5

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 57-38
60%Last 30 · 249-167
Receipts →

WNBA accuracy · last 30

Recent model grading

See receipts →

Last 30

66.2%

68 games

Tonight · 2 games

Sorted by model edge

Locks ★ first · then edges · then leans · tossups last

Show our work →
LV

77%

Strong

Top edge tonight

★ Lock · Aces ML

Conviction read · gauge spans 0–100%

Bet LV ML↗Bet LV ML↗

Direct to DraftKings or FanDuel · 21+

Edge
The One model★ Lock
Sat, Aug 1
LV

LV★

Aces

64-28

vs89.2%LV

CHI

Sky

21-58

CHI
LV 89.2%win prob10.8% CHI
LV 1640 · CHI 1363Box score→
The One modelTossup
Sat, Aug 1
NY

NY★

Liberty

47-38

vs51.3%NY

PHX

Mercury

45-47

PHX
NY 51.3%win prob48.7% PHX
NY 1506 · PHX 1462Box score→

Power ratings · Elo

Best + worst teams in wnba

Top 5

  1. 1MIN

    Lynx

    70-21

    1710Elo
  2. 2LV

    Aces

    64-28

    1640Elo
  3. 3GS

    Valkyries

    53-35

    1604Elo
  4. 4ATL

    Dream

    53-28

    1603Elo
  5. 5IND

    Fever

    49-38

    1585Elo

Bottom 5

  1. 1CON

    Sun

    18-69

    1301Elo
  2. 2CHI

    Sky

    21-58

    1363Elo
  3. 3SEA

    Storm

    30-53

    1366Elo
  4. 4TOR

    Tempo

    15-24

    1408Elo
  5. 5LA

    Sparks

    37-42

    1456Elo

How the model works

One Elo rating per team, updated after every game

Same Elo skeleton for every league: K-factor tuned to the schedule density, league-specific home advantage, off-season regression to the mean. WNBA ratings update after every final score and feed straight into the win-probability column you see above.

Full methodology →